世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

The State of Food and Agriculture

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the sectors considered in this volume, since the mitigation potential is derived from both an enhancement of removals of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock (robust evidence; high agreement). The land provides food that feeds the Earth’s human population of ca. 7 billion, fibre for a variety of purposes, livelihoods for billions of people worldwide, and is a critical resource for sustainable development in many regions. Agriculture is frequently central to the livelihoods of many social groups, especially in developing countries where it often accounts for a significant share of production. In addition to food and fibre, the land provides a multitude of ecosystem services; climate change mitigation is just one of many that are vital to human well-being (robust evidence; high agreement). Mitigation options in the AFOLU sector, therefore, need to be assessed, as far as possible, for their potential impact on all other services provided by land. [Section 11.1]

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Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

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Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment.

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)

Many low-income countries in Africa are optimistic that producing biofuels will both reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and stimulate economic development, particularly in poorer rural areas. Conversely, skeptics view biofuels as a threat to food security in the region and as a ‘land-grabbing’ opportunity for foreign investors. As a result of this ongoing debate, national Biofuels Task Forces have been asked to evaluate both the viability of domestic biofuel production and its broader implications for economic development. To guide these complex evaluations, this article presents an analytical framework that prioritizes different aspects of a comprehensive national assessment and identifies suitable evaluation methods. The findings from recent assessments for Mozambique and Tanzania are used to illustrate the framework. While from these two countries studies found that biofuels investments could enhance development, their experiences highlight potential trade-offs, especially at the macroeconomic ...

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Are biofuels good for African development? An analytical framework with evidence from Mozambique and Tanzania.

We adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economy-wide model. Our results indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest to 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions though careful consideration of opportunity costs is required.

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The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

There is growing interest within the climate change and development community in using seasonal forecast information to reduce the losses to agriculture resulting from climate variability, especially within food-insecure countries. However, forecast systems are expensive to establish and maintain, and therefore gauging the potential economic return to investments in forecast systems is crucial. Most studies that evaluate seasonal forecasts focus on developed countries and/or overlook agriculture’s economywide linkages. Yet forecasts may be more valuable in developing regions such as East Africa, where climate is variable and agriculture has macroeconomic importance. We use computable general equilibrium and process-based crop models to estimate the potential economywide value of national seasonal forecast systems in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia. Stochastic seasonal simulations produce value distributions for forecasts of varying accuracy and varying levels of farm coverage. A timely and accurate forecast adopted by all farmers generates average regional income gains of US$113 million per year. Gains are much higher during extreme climate events and are generally pro-poor. The forecast value falls when forecast skill and farm coverage decline. National economic and trading structures, including the importance of agricultural exports, are found to be major determinants of forecast value. Economywide approaches are therefore needed to complement farm-level analysis when evaluating forecast systems in low-income agrarian economies.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2820148_code1123746.pdf?abstractid=2820148

The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa

1. Introduction: African Youth at a Crossroads Danielle Resnick and James Thurlow Part 1 Cross-Country Analyses of Economic and Political Trends 2. Youth Employment Prospects in Africa James Thurlow 3. Protesting for a Better Tomorrow? Youth Mobilization in Africa Danielle Resnick Part 2 Youth Aspirations in Urban Africa 4. Cities of Youth: Post-Millennial Cases of Mobility and Sociality Karen Tranberg Hansen 5. Youth in Tanzania's Urbanizing Mining Settlements: Prospecting a Mineralized Future Deborah Fahy Bryceson Part 3 Assessing Extant Policy Options for Improving Youth Employment 6. Young People, Agriculture and Employment in Rural Africa James Sumberg, Nana Akua Anyidoho, Michael Chasukwa, Blessings Chinsinga, Jennifer Leavy, Getnet Tadele, Stephen Whitfield, and Joseph Yaro 7. Education Policy, Vocational Training, and the Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa Moses Oketch 8. The Success of Learnerships: Lessons from South Africa's Training and Education Programme Neil Rankin, Gareth Roberts, and Volker Schoer 9. Conclusions: Moving Beyond Conventional Wisdoms Danielle Resnick and James Thurlow

African Youth and the Persistence of Marginalization : Employment, politics, and prospects for change

Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) has dominated the agriculture and food security policy landscape in the country since its inception in 2005/06. FISP is now credited—or blamed, depending on one’s viewpoint— for a revival of agricultural input subsidies across Africa as a tool to raise crop productivity and reduce poverty and food insecurity. This follows global reporting about Malawi’s dramatic decline in food insecurity after implementing a subsidy program against expert advice. While historically the debate around the desirability of input subsidies tended to focus on whether short-term gains outweighed the long-term opportunity costs of forgone growth-enhancing investments in infrastructure, research, or extension services, a growing body of literature now questions the ability of these programs to even generate short-term, on-farm benefits that outweigh costs. Although discarding FISP may be political suicide in the short term, anecdotal evidence suggests a gradual but marked shift in Malawian public opinion about the effectiveness or even desirability of FISP. This note draws on the recent evaluation literature to identify key policy lessons so far, but also to highlight areas that require further analysis before policymakers can consider major reforms.

James Thurlow

Papers

Are biofuels good for African development? An analytical framework with evidence from Mozambique and Tanzania.

The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa

African Youth and the Persistence of Marginalization : Employment, politics, and prospects for change

Malawi's farm input subsidy program: Where do we go from here?