Jan R. Magnus

TL;DR: Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a theoretical explanation for the fact that forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform poorly in applications, while in practice they need to be estimated, and they provide the underlying theory, some special cases and an application in the context of model selection.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a theoretical explanation for the stylized fact that forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform poorly in applications, and there is no guarantee that the optimal forecast combination will be better than the equal weight case, or even improve on the original forecasts.

TL;DR: In this paper, the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Prufer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139-153), are presented.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors derived the limiting distribution of the estimated quality of a world record for each of twenty-eight events (fourteen for both men and women) and used the probability theory of extreme values and the corresponding statistical techniques.