Convergence of Probability Measures. By P. Billingsley. Chichester, Sussex, Wiley, 1968. xii, 253 p. 9 1/4“. 117s.

Convergence of Probability Measures

Problems involving causal inference have dogged at the heels of statistics since its earliest days. Correlation does not imply causation, and yet causal conclusions drawn from a carefully designed experiment are often valid. What can a statistical model say about causation? This question is addressed by using a particular model for causal inference (Holland and Rubin 1983; Rubin 1974) to critique the discussions of other writers on causation and causal inference. These include selected philosophers, medical researchers, statisticians, econometricians, and proponents of causal modeling.

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Statistics and Causal Inference

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

We describe and illustrate Bayesian inference in models for density estimation using mixtures of Dirichlet processes. These models provide natural settings for density estimation and are exemplified by special cases where data are modeled as a sample from mixtures of normal distributions. Efficient simulation methods are used to approximate various prior, posterior, and predictive distributions. This allows for direct inference on a variety of practical issues, including problems of local versus global smoothing, uncertainty about density estimates, assessment of modality, and the inference on the numbers of components. Also, convergence results are established for a general class of normal mixture models.

https://stat.duke.edu/~scs/Courses/Stat376/Papers/DirichletProc/EscobarWestJASA1995.pdf

Bayesian Density Estimation and Inference Using Mixtures

Nonparametric frontier estimation: a robust approach

The focus of this paper is the nonparametric estimation of an instrumental regression function f defined by conditional moment restrictions that stem from a structural econometric model E[Y − f (Z) | W] = 0, and involve endogenous variables Y and Z and instruments W. The function f is the solution of an ill-posed inverse problem and we propose an estimation procedure based on Tikhonov regularization. The paper analyzes identification and overidentification of this model, and presents asymptotic properties of the estimated nonparametric instrumental regression function.

Nonparametric Instrumental Regression

This paper proposes a version of the Generalized Method of Moments procedure that handles both the case where the number of moment conditions isnite and the case where there is a continuum of moment conditions. Typically, the moment conditions are indexed by an index parameter that takes its values in an interval. The objective function to minimize is then the norm of the moment conditions in a Hilbert space. The estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The optimal estimator is obtained by minimizing the norm of the moment conditions in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated with the covariance. We show an easy way to calculate this estimator. Finally, we study properties of a specication test using overidentifying restrictions. Results of this paper are useful in many instances where a continuum of moment conditions arise. Examples include ecient estimation of continuous time regression models, cross sectional models that satisfy conditional moment restrictions, as well as scalar diusion processes.

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Generalization of gmm to a continuum of moment conditions

/pdf/nonparametric-instrumental-regression-1fc6my9oe0.pdf

Nonparametric instrumental regression

This important reference/text focuses on the theory of reduction of a Bayesian experiment considered as a (unique) probability measure on a product space (parameter space x sample space).Treating the basic model and its essential properties, it comprehensively examines sufficiency, including its applications to identification and to comparison of models, as xwll as ancillarity, with its application to exogeneity.

Jean-Pierre Florens

Papers

Nonparametric frontier estimation: a robust approach

Nonparametric Instrumental Regression

Generalization of gmm to a continuum of moment conditions

Nonparametric instrumental regression

Elements of Bayesian Statistics