计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00457602/document

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Summary Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, pre- diction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric

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Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms—the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects—that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/9/3465.full.pdf

Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity

Trends in bioconversion of lignocellulose: Biofuels, platform chemicals & biorefinery concept

Measuring transnational leakage of forest conservation

This study assessed the abundance and regional distribution of logging residues and their potential for electricity generation and CO 2 emission displacement in the USA. Based on the 1997 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, a 70% residue recovery rate, and a minimum viable power plant capacity of 10 MW, annually recoverable logging residues in the USA were estimated at 13.9 million dry t from growing stock and 36.2 million dry t from both growing stock and other sources. Most logging residues were located in the eastern USA; the Southeast and South Central regions accounted for approximately two-thirds of the national total from growing stock and about 50% of that from both growing stock and other sources. The recoverable residues from both growing stock and other sources could generate 67.5 TWh electricity annually. This would displace 17.6 million t carbon emitted from coal-fueled power plants (about 3% of total carbon emissions from the US electricity sector in 1997) at a cost ranging from US$60 to 80 t −1  C.

Availability of logging residues and potential for electricity production and carbon displacement in the USA

https://irmaservices.nps.gov/datastore/v4/rest/DownloadFile/495613

Risk and damage of southern pine beetle outbreaks under global climate change

This study evaluated the co-benefits associated with the utilization of logging residues for electricity production in East Texas, USA. The benefits evaluated included the value of CO 2 emissions displaced due to substituting logging residues for coal in power generation, reductions in site preparation costs during forest regeneration, and creation of jobs and income in local communities. Based on the 2004 Forest Inventory Analysis data and a 70% biomass recovery rate, annual recoverable logging residues in East Texas were estimated at 1.3 Mt (dry). These residues, if used for electricity production, would displace about 2.44 Mt of CO 2 , valued at some 9M$ at the current CO 2 price traded at the Chicago Climate Exchange (accounting for about 2% of the stumpage value). Removing logging residues would also save $200–250 ha −1 in site preparation costs. In addition, input–output modeling revealed that logging residue procurement and electricity generation together would have a stronger ripple effect on employment than on output or value-added, with about 1340 new jobs created and 215M$ in value-added generated annually. These results offer new insights into the cost-competitiveness of forest biomass and bioenergy production.

Co-benefits of utilizing logging residues for bioenergy production: the case for East Texas, USA.

Mitigating global climate change via CO 2 emission control and taxation is likely to enhance the economic potential of bioenergy production and utilization. This study investigated the cost competitiveness of woody biomass for electricity production in the US under alternative CO 2 emission reductions and taxes. We first simulated changes in the price of coal for electricity production due to CO 2 emission reductions and taxation using a computable general equilibrium model. Then, the costs of electricity generation fueled by energy crops (hybrid poplar), logging residues, and coal were estimated using the capital budgeting method. Our results indicate that logging residues would be competitive with coal if emissions were taxed at about US$25 Mg −1  CO 2 , while an emission tax US$100 Mg −1  CO 2 or higher would be needed for hybrid poplar plantations at a yield of 11.21 dry Mg ha −1  yr −1 (5 dry tons ac −1  yr −1 ) to compete with coal in electricity production. Reaching the CO 2 emission targets committed under the Kyoto Protocol would only slightly increase the price of fossil fuels, generating little impact on the competitiveness of woody biomass. However, the price of coal used for electricity production would significantly increase if global CO 2 emissions were curtailed by 20% or more. Logging residues would become a competitive fuel source for electricity production if current global CO 2 emissions were cut by 20–30%. Hybrid poplar plantations would not be able to compete with coal until emissions were reduced by 40% or more.

Jianbang Gan

Papers

Measuring transnational leakage of forest conservation

Availability of logging residues and potential for electricity production and carbon displacement in the USA

Risk and damage of southern pine beetle outbreaks under global climate change

Co-benefits of utilizing logging residues for bioenergy production: the case for East Texas, USA.

A comparative analysis of woody biomass and coal for electricity generation under various CO2 emission reductions and taxes.