China committed to peak its carbon emissions around 2030, with best efforts to peak early, and also to achieve 20% non-fossil energy as a proportion of primary energy supply by 2030. These commitments were included in China’s nationally-determined contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. We develop and apply a mixed-method methodology for analyzing the likelihood of current Chinese policies reducing greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with China’s Paris commitments. We find that China is likely to peak its emissions well in advance of 2030 and achieve its non-fossil target conditional on full and effective implementation of all current policies, successful conclusion of power-sector reform, and full implementation of a national emissions-trading system (ETS) for the power and additional major industrial sectors after 2020. Several policy gaps are identified and discussed. The extent to which China’s existing and forthcoming policies would lead to emission reductions domestically has not been well understood. Here the authors combined expert elicitation and a system dynamic model and showed that China is on track to peak its emissions well in advance of 2030.

/pdf/assessing-the-policy-gaps-for-achieving-china-s-climate-5ap6wswa9b.pdf

Assessing the Policy gaps for achieving China's climate targets in the Paris Agreement.

The costs for solar photovoltaics, wind, and battery storage have dropped markedly since 2010, however, many recent studies and reports around the world have not adequately captured such dramatic decrease. Those costs are projected to decline further in the near future, bringing new prospects for the widespread penetration of renewables and extensive power-sector decarbonization that previous policy discussions did not fully consider. Here we show if cost trends for renewables continue, 62% of China's electricity could come from non-fossil sources by 2030 at a cost that is 11% lower than achieved through a business-as-usual approach. Further, China's power sector could cut half of its 2015 carbon emissions at a cost about 6% lower compared to business-as-usual conditions.

/pdf/rapid-cost-decrease-of-renewables-and-storage-accelerates-5gpw7kdr7u.pdf

Rapid cost decrease of renewables and storage accelerates the decarbonization of China’s power system

The world is facing an energy crisis, environmental pollution and climate change as a result of the depletion and use of fossil fuels. In the meantime, China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, as it consumes the world's largest quantity of energy with 67% of the primary energy consumption and 73% of electricity generation from coal. To cope with energy security and environmental challenges, China has been actively developing renewable energy since the year 2000 and has made rapid progress (with an average annual growth rate of 62.5% over the past decade). China plans to achieve 16% renewables by 2030 while aggressive studies reveal that China should be able to reach 26% renewable energy by 2030 and 60% renewable energy and 86% renewable electricity by 2050. In this paper, we analyze the historical and current status of China's renewable energy development and discuss challenges and strategies for China's renewable energy goals for 2050.

China's renewable energy goals by 2050

More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here, the authors detail how to structure a high-ambition, plant-by-plant coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs.

/pdf/a-plant-by-plant-strategy-for-high-ambition-coal-power-36jkcr08rd.pdf

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

As the largest energy infrastructure in China, the power sector consumed approximately half of China’s coal over the past decade and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement targets. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants and associated emissions in China during 2010–2030 by using a unit-based emission projection model, which integrated the historical power plant information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) emissions from coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24%, respectively, during 2010–2015, compared to 15% increase in CO2 emissions. In contrast to ever-increasing CO2 emissions until 2030 under current energy development planning, we found that aggressive energy development planning could curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implemen...

Current Emissions and Future Mitigation Pathways of Coal-Fired Power Plants in China from 2010 to 2030.

We present an integrated model, SWITCH-China, of the Chinese power sector with which to analyze the economic and technological implications of a medium to long-term decarbonization scenario while accounting for very-short-term renewable variability. On the basis of the model and assumptions used, we find that the announced 2030 carbon peak can be achieved with a carbon price of ∼$40/tCO2. Current trends in renewable energy price reductions alone are insufficient to replace coal; however, an 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 is achievable in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Target Scenario with an optimal electricity mix in 2050 including nuclear (14%), wind (23%), solar (27%), hydro (6%), gas (1%), coal (3%), and carbon capture and sequestration coal energy (26%). The co-benefits of carbon-price strategy would offset 22% to 42% of the increased electricity costs if the true cost of coal and the social cost of carbon are incorporated. In such a scenario, aggressive attention to research and both technological and financial innovation mechanisms are crucial to enabling the transition at a reasonable cost, along with strong carbon policies.

/pdf/switch-china-a-systems-approach-to-decarbonizing-china-s-4d6vwu2d1e.pdf

Jianwei Tian

Papers

SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System