计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

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The Theory of Industrial Organization

This chapter discusses how applied researchers in corporate finance can address endogeneity concerns. We begin by reviewing the sources of endogeneity—omitted variables, simultaneity, and measurement error—and their implications for inference. We then discuss in detail a number of econometric techniques aimed at addressing endogeneity problems, including instrumental variables, difference-in-differences estimators, regression discontinuity design, matching methods, panel data methods, and higher order moments estimators. The unifying themes of our discussion are the emphasis on intuition and the applications to corporate finance.

/pdf/endogeneity-in-empirical-corporate-finance1-obm7n5t71j.pdf

Endogeneity in Empirical Corporate Finance1

Handbook of the Economics of Finance

We examine the effects of financial analysts on the real economy in the case of innovation. Our baseline results show that firms covered by a larger number of analysts generate fewer patents and patents with lower impact. To establish causality, we use a difference-in-differences approach that relies on the variation generated by multiple exogenous shocks to analyst coverage, as well as an instrumental variable approach. Our identification strategies suggest a negative causal effect of analyst coverage on firm innovation. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that analysts exert too much pressure on managers to meet short-term goals, impeding firms’ investment in long-term innovative projects. We further discuss possible underlying mechanisms through which analysts impede innovation and show that there is a residual effect of analysts on innovation even after controlling for these mechanisms. Our paper offers novel evidence on a previously under-explored adverse consequence of analyst coverage — its hindrance to firm innovation.

The Dark Side of Analyst Coverage: The Case of Innovation

We evaluate differences in investment behavior between stock market listed and privately held firms in the U.S. using a rich new data source on private firms. Listed firms invest less and are less responsive to changes in investment opportunities compared to observably similar, matched private firms, especially in industries in which stock prices are particularly sensitive to current earnings. These differences do not appear to be due to unobserved differences between public and private firms, how we measure investment opportunities, lifecycle differences, or our matching criteria. We suggest that the patterns we document are most consistent with theoretical models emphasizing the role of managerial myopia.

Comparing the Investment Behavior of Public and Private Firms

We analyze the link between industry size and R&D spending distribution. We consider amonopolistically competitive market in which firms can invest in cost-cutting R&D by paying a fixed cost first. For an intermediate level of fixed cost, there is a unique equilibrium in which the market segments into investing and non-investing firms. Using this equilibrium, we study howthe distribution and level of R&D expenditure changes as industry size increases. In particular, we show that, as the market size increases, R&D spending can become more concentrated. Data motivating these results are drawn from the Taiwanese and Korean semiconductor industries.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/2451_26013.pdf?abstractid=1281897&mirid=3

Industry Size and the Distribution of R&D Investment

/pdf/advertising-and-related-restraints-4stpzydklx.pdf

Advertising and Related Restraints

We investigate the role of dynamic production inputs and their associated adjustment costs in shaping the dispersion of total factor productivity (TFP) and static measures of capital misallocation within a country. Using data on 5,010 establishments in 33 developing countries from the World Bank’s Enterprise Research Data, we find that countries exhibiting greater time-series volatility of productivity are also characterized by greater cross-sectional dispersion in productivity. Volatility in TFP explains one quarter to one third of cross-country productivity dispersion. We document a similar relationship between productivity volatility and the dispersion of the marginal revenue product of capital (static capital misallocation). We then use a standard model of investment with adjustment costs, parameterized using numbers calibrated to U.S. data, to show that increasing the volatility of productivity to the level observed in these developing economies can quantitatively replicate the observed relationship between static misallocation and volatility observed in the data. We find that sixty-one percent of the static capital misallocation in the data is captured by the model’s prediction. Our findings suggest that the dynamic process governing productivity shocks is a first-order determinant of differences in misallocation and, hence, income across countries.

Productivity Volatility and the Misallocation of Resources in Developing Economies

We document that firms appear disinclined to share underwriters with other firms in the same industry. We show that this disinclination is evident only when firms engage in product-market competition. This leads us to suggest that concerns about information leakage may motivate the patterns we see in the data. We discuss how these effects help us understand how the investment banking industry is structured, how banks compete, and how prices are set. At each step we exploit sources of exogenous variation that correspond to specific margins on which the effects of interest directly influence incentives and choices.

John Asker

Papers

Comparing the Investment Behavior of Public and Private Firms

Industry Size and the Distribution of R&D Investment

Advertising and Related Restraints

Productivity Volatility and the Misallocation of Resources in Developing Economies

Sharing Investment Bankers