With increasing incidence and mortality, cancer is the leading cause of death in China and is a major public health problem. Because of China's massive population (1.37 billion), previous national incidence and mortality estimates have been limited to small samples of the population using data from the 1990s or based on a specific year. With high-quality data from an additional number of population-based registries now available through the National Central Cancer Registry of China, the authors analyzed data from 72 local, population-based cancer registries (2009-2011), representing 6.5% of the population, to estimate the number of new cases and cancer deaths for 2015. Data from 22 registries were used for trend analyses (2000-2011). The results indicated that an estimated 4292,000 new cancer cases and 2814,000 cancer deaths would occur in China in 2015, with lung cancer being the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer death. Stomach, esophageal, and liver cancers were also commonly diagnosed and were identified as leading causes of cancer death. Residents of rural areas had significantly higher age-standardized (Segi population) incidence and mortality rates for all cancers combined than urban residents (213.6 per 100,000 vs 191.5 per 100,000 for incidence; 149.0 per 100,000 vs 109.5 per 100,000 for mortality, respectively). For all cancers combined, the incidence rates were stable during 2000 through 2011 for males (+0.2% per year; P = .1), whereas they increased significantly (+2.2% per year; P < .05) among females. In contrast, the mortality rates since 2006 have decreased significantly for both males (-1.4% per year; P < .05) and females (-1.1% per year; P < .05). Many of the estimated cancer cases and deaths can be prevented through reducing the prevalence of risk factors, while increasing the effectiveness of clinical care delivery, particularly for those living in rural areas and in disadvantaged populations.

https://researchpubs.cancercouncil.com.au/cancercounciljspui/bitstream/1/1728/1/caac21338.pdf

Cancer statistics in China, 2015

世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

NUDGE: IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein Penguin Books, 2009, 312 pp, ISBN 978-0-14-311526-7This book is best described formally as a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications. Informally, it is about how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society. It is paternalism in the sense that "it is legitimate for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior in order to make their lives longer, healthier, and better", (p. 5) It is libertarian in that "people should be free to do what they like - and to opt out of undesirable arrangements if they want to do so", (p. 5) The built-in possibility of opting out or making a different choice preserves freedom of choice even though people's behavior has been influenced by the nature of the presentation of the information or by the structure of the decisionmaking system. I had never heard of libertarian paternalism before reading this book, and I now find it fascinating.Written for a general audience, this book contains mostly social and behavioral science theory and models, but there is considerable discussion of structure and process that has roots in mathematical and quantitative modeling. One of the main applications of this social system is economic choice in investing, selecting and purchasing products and services, systems of taxes, banking (mortgages, borrowing, savings), and retirement systems. Other quantitative social choice systems discussed include environmental effects, health care plans, gambling, and organ donations. Softer issues that are also subject to a nudge-based approach are marriage, education, eating, drinking, smoking, influence, spread of information, and politics. There is something in this book for everyone.The basis for this libertarian paternalism concept is in the social theory called "science of choice", the study of the design and implementation of influence systems on various kinds of people. The terms Econs and Humans, are used to refer to people with either considerable or little rational decision-making talent, respectively. The various libertarian paternalism concepts and systems presented are tested and compared in light of these two types of people. Two foundational issues that this book has in common with another book, Network of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders, that was also reviewed for this issue of the Journal are that 1 ) there are two modes of thinking (or components of the brain) - an automatic (intuitive) process and a reflective (rational) process and 2) the need for conformity and the desire for imitation are powerful forces in human behavior. …

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)33326-3.pdf

Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000-14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries.

Little is known about pediatric surgical disease in resource-poor countries. This study documents the surgical care of children in central Haiti and demonstrates the influence of the 2010 earthquake on pediatric surgical delivery. methods . We conducted a retrospective review of operations performed at Partners in Health/Zanmi Lasante hospitals in central Haiti. results . Of 2,057 operations performed prior to the earthquake, 423 were pediatric (20.6%). Congenital anomalies were the most common operative indication (159/423 opera- tions; 33.5%). Pediatric surgical volume increased significantly after the earthquake, with

The i mpact of n atural Disaster on p ediatric Surgical Delivery: a r eview of Haiti Six m onths before and a fter the 2010 e arthquake

This case of cleft lip and palate repair by a surgical mission team is common. Low-risk, single-procedure surgical interventions requiring minimal follow-up with substantial quality of life improvement are well suited for this type of mission. However, cleft repair can also be quite complex and require multiple surgeries and other care over time, postoperative surveillance, and speech therapy. These benefits and burdens prompt us to investigate, from clinical and ethical perspectives, whether and when some surgical care is better than none. We argue that, when performing surgical interventions in low- and middle-income countries, mission teams should consider a systems-based approach that emphasizes collaboration, context, and sustainability.

https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/sites/journalofethics.ama-assn.org/files/2019-08/cscm3-1909_0.pdf

How Should We Decide Whether and When Some Care Is Better Than No Care

Introduction The benefits of simulation-based medical training are well described. The most effective way to plant and scale simulation training in rural locations remains undescribed. We sought to plant simulation training programmes for anaesthesia emergencies in two rural Indian hospitals. Methods Two Indian consultant anaesthetists without experience in medical simulation underwent a 3-day course at the Boston Children’s Hospital’s (BCH) Simulator Program. They returned to their institutions and launched simulation programmes with an airway manikin and mock patient monitor. The 1-year experience was evaluated using individual, in-depth interviews of simulation facilitators. Three staff members (responsible for facilitating medical simulations over the prior year) at two rural hospitals in India were interviewed. None attended the BCH training; instead, they received on-the-job training from the BCH-trained, consultant anaesthetist colleagues. Results Successes included organisational adoption of simulation training with exercises 1 year after the initial BCH-training, increased interdisciplinary teamwork and improved clinical competency in managing emergencies. Barriers to effective, local implementation of simulation programmes fell into three categories: time required to run simulations, fixed and rigid roles, and variable resources. Thematic improvement requests were for standardised resources to help train simulation facilitators and demonstrate to participants a well-run simulation, in addition to context-sensitive scenarios. Conclusion An in-person training of simulation facilitators to promote medical simulation programmes in rural hospitals produced ongoing simulation programmes 1 year later. In order to make these programmes sustainable, however, increased investment in developing simulation facilitators is required. In particular, simulation facilitators must be prepared to formally train other simulation facilitators, too.

https://stel.bmj.com/content/bmjstel/early/2020/08/13/bmjstel-2019-000577.full.pdf

John G. Meara

Papers

The i mpact of n atural Disaster on p ediatric Surgical Delivery: a r eview of Haiti Six m onths before and a fter the 2010 e arthquake

How Should We Decide Whether and When Some Care Is Better Than No Care

Simulation capacity building in rural Indian hospitals: A 1-year follow-up qualitative analysis

Medicaid expansion likely to affect the delivery of surgical care.

Global Surgery 2030: an introduction.