The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

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A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

A review of drought concepts

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

The topography of a catchment has a major impact on the hydrological, geomorphological. and biological processes active in the landscape. The spatial distribution of topographic attributes can often be used as an indirect measure of the spatial variability of these processes and allows them to be mapped using relatively simple techniques. Many geographic information systems are being developed that store topographic information as the primary data for analysing water resource and biological problems. Furthermore, topography can be used to develop more physically realistic structures for hydrologic and water quality models that directly account for the impact of topography on the hydrology. Digital elevation models are the primary data used in the analysis of catchment topography. We describe elevation data sources, digital elevation model structures, and the analysis of digital elevation data for hydrological, geomorphological, and biological applications. Some hydrologic models that make use of digital representations of topography are also considered.

Digital terrain modelling: A review of hydrological, geomorphological, and biological applications

This paper presents a new class of nonlinear control charts which respond quickly to small shifts and jump patterns in tme series. The underlying disturbance models for the control charts are nonlinear extensions of the IMA(1,1) model. The Kalman filtering algorithm generates Bayesian estimates of the process level for the control chart plotting. The single-parameter chart is identical to the EWMA, while the two- and three-parameter designs are much more effective in detecting small shifts mixed with local trends. The nonlinear control charting scheme is also capable of detecting a mean shift in independent observation.

Nonlinear control charts for jump detection

Conventional streamflow forecasting does not generally take into account the effects of irrigation practice on the magnitude of floods and flash floods. In this paper, we report the results of a study in which we modeled the impacts of an irrigated area in the US Southwest on streamflow. A calibrated version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC), coupled with a routing algorithm, was used to investigate two strategies for irrigating alfalfa in the Beaver Creek watershed (Arizona, USA), for the period January to March of 2010, at a resolution of 1.8 km and hourly time step. By incorporating the effects of irrigation in artificially maintaining soil moisture, model performance is improved without requiring changes in the resolution or quality of input data. Peak flows in the watershed were found to increase by 10 to 500 times, depending on the irrigation scenario, as a function of the strategy and the intensity of rainfall. The study suggests that both flood control and irrigation efficiency could be enhanced by applying improved irrigation techniques.

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Juan B. Valdés

Papers

Nonlinear control charts for jump detection

Modeling the Effect of Irrigation Practices in Flash Floods: A Case Study for the US Southwest

Economic index for inter-annual water management: the case of Irrigation District No. 041, Río Yaqui, Mexico.

Water and urban development challenges of urban growth

Water and urban development challenges in the Tucson metropolitan area: An interdisciplinary perspective