The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...

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A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

A review of drought concepts

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

The topography of a catchment has a major impact on the hydrological, geomorphological. and biological processes active in the landscape. The spatial distribution of topographic attributes can often be used as an indirect measure of the spatial variability of these processes and allows them to be mapped using relatively simple techniques. Many geographic information systems are being developed that store topographic information as the primary data for analysing water resource and biological problems. Furthermore, topography can be used to develop more physically realistic structures for hydrologic and water quality models that directly account for the impact of topography on the hydrology. Digital elevation models are the primary data used in the analysis of catchment topography. We describe elevation data sources, digital elevation model structures, and the analysis of digital elevation data for hydrological, geomorphological, and biological applications. Some hydrologic models that make use of digital representations of topography are also considered.

Digital terrain modelling: A review of hydrological, geomorphological, and biological applications

The paper explores the bases for alternative approaches to river flow and hydrologic time series forecasting. The precipitation that forces river flow contains significant modes of variability beyond simple noise randomness and these structured statistical properties may be used advantageously in forecasting river flow. Despite the high degree of spatial and temporal intermittency observed in precipitation records, there are often deterministic signals embedded in the time series. These deterministic components of the random variable are related to the physical processes that constitute precipitation formation.

Long term predictability of river stages under ENSO influence

This review considers methodologies that have or can be employed to incorporate streamflow forecasts into reservoir policies and operating decisions. These include the use of streamflow forecasts in deterministic optimization models, use of multiple stage decision trees, stochastic analytical optimization models with linearized reservoir dynamics, and sophisticated stochastic models that can describe the joint distribution of streamflows and forecasts in the optimization of reservoir operations.

Juan B. Valdés

Papers

Long term predictability of river stages under ENSO influence

Using forecasts to improve reservoir operations

Volume-Duration-Frequencies for Ungaged Catchments in Texas

Mudflow Modeling in the Copiapo Basin, Chile

Problems in calibrating conceptual rainfall runoff models