Much as Rachel Carson's \"Silent Spring\" was a call to action against the pesticides that were devastating bird populations, Charles S. Elton's classic \"The Ecology of Invasions by Animals and Plants\" sounded an early warning about an environmental catastrophe that has become all too familiar today-the invasion of nonnative species. From kudzu to zebra mussels to Asian long-horned beetles, nonnative species are colonizing new habitats around the world at an alarming rate thanks to accidental and intentional human intervention. One of the leading causes of extinctions of native animals and plants, invasive species also wreak severe economic havoc, causing $79 billion worth of damage in the United States alone. Elton explains the devastating effects that invasive species can have on local ecosystems in clear, concise language and with numerous examples. The first book on invasion biology, and still the most cited, Elton's masterpiece provides an accessible, engaging introduction to one of the most important environmental crises of our time. Charles S. Elton was one of the founders of ecology, who also established and led Oxford University's Bureau of Animal Population. His work has influenced generations of ecologists and zoologists, and his publications remain central to the literature in modern biology. \"History has caught up with Charles Elton's foresight, and \"The Ecology of Invasions\" can now be seen as one of the central scientific books of our century.\"-David Quammen, from the Foreword to \"Killer Algae: The True Tale of a Biological Invasion\

The Ecology of Invasions by Animals and Plants

Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.

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Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion.

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Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities

Global biodiversity change is one of the most pressing environmental issues of our time. Here, we review current scientific knowledge on global biodiversity change and identify the main knowledge gaps. We discuss two components of biodiversity change—biodiversity alterations and biodiversity loss—across four dimensions of biodiversity: species extinctions, species abundances, species distributions, and genetic diversity. We briefly review the impacts that modern humans and their ancestors have had on biodiversity and discuss the recent declines and alterations in biodiversity. We analyze the direct pressures on biodiversity change: habitat change, overexploitation, exotic species, pollution, and climate change. We discuss the underlying causes, such as demographic growth and resource use, and review existing scenario projections. We identify successes and impending opportunities in biodiversity policy and management, and highlight gaps in biodiversity monitoring and models. Finally, we discuss how the eco...

Global Biodiversity Change: The Bad, the Good, and the Unknown

As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and minimize the undesirable effects of expected increases in tree mortality. We discuss four types of forest and disease management tactics – monitoring, forecasting, planning and mitigation – and provide case studies of yellow-cedar decline and sudden aspen decline to illustrate how forest diseases might be managed in the face of climate change. The uncertainties inherent to climate change effects can be diminished by conducting research, assessing risks, and linking results to forest policy, planning and decision making.

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Climate change and forest diseases

Invasive nonindigenous plant species (NIPS) threaten native diversity, alter ecosystem processes, and may interact with other components of global environmental change. Here, a general framework is outlined that attempts to connect patterns of plant invasion to processes underlying these patterns at four well-established spatio-temporal stages of the invasion process: transport, colonization, establishment, and landscape spread. At each stage we organize findings and ideas about the filters that limit NIPS success and the interaction of these filters with historical aspects of introduction events, NIPS traits, and ecosystem properties. While it remains difficult to draw conclusions about the risk of invasion across ecosystems, to delineate universal 'invader traits', or to predict large-scale extinctions following invasions, this review highlights the growing body of research that suggests that the success of invasive NIPS is controlled by a series of key processes or filters. These filters are common to all invasion events, and will interact throughout the stages of plant invasion, although the relative importance of a filter may be stage, species or location specific. It is suggested that both research and management programs may benefit from employing multiscale and stage approaches to studying and controlling invasion. We further use the framework to briefly examine potential interactions between climate change and filters that limit NIPS invasion.

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Plant invasion across space and time: factors affecting nonindigenous species success during four stages of invasion.

Summary Invasive nonindigenous plant species (NIPS) threaten native diversity, alter ecosystem processes, and may interact with other components of global environmental change. Here, a general framework is outlined that attempts to connect patterns of plant invasion to processes underlying these patterns at four well-established spatio- temporal stages of the invasion process: transport, colonization, establishment, and landscape spread. At each stage we organize findings and ideas about the filters that limit NIPS success and the interaction of these filters with historical aspects of introduction events, NIPS traits, and ecosystem properties. While it remains difficult to draw conclusions about the risk of invasion across ecosystems, to delineate universal 'invader traits', or to predict large-scale extinctions following invasions, this review highlights the growing body of research that suggests that the success of invasive NIPS is controlled by a series of key processes or filters. These filters are common to all invasion events, and will interact throughout the stages of plant invasion, although the relative importance of a filter may be stage, species or location specific. It is suggested that both research and management programs may benefit from employing multiscale and stage approaches to studying and controlling invasion. We further use the framework to briefly examine potential interactions between climate change and filters that limit NIPS invasion.

factors affecting nonindigenous species success during four stages of invasion

Climate models project that by 2100, the northeastern US and eastern Canada will warm by approximately 3- 5 8C, with increased winter precipitation. These changes will affect trees directly and also indirectly through effects on ''nuisance'' species, such as insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plants. We review how basic ecological principles can be used to predict nuisance species' responses to climate change and how this is likely to impact northeastern forests. We then examine in detail the potential responses of two pest species (hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand) and forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hubner)), two pathogens (armillaria root rot (Armillaria spp.) and beech bark disease (Cryptococcus fagisuga Lind. + Neonectria spp.)), and two invasive plant species (glossy buckthorn (Frangula alnus Mill.) and oriental bittersweet (Celastrus orbiculatus Thunb.)). Several of these species are likely to have stronger or more widespread effects on forest composition and structure under the projected climate. However, uncertainty pervades our predictions because we lack adequate data on the species and because some species depend on complex, incompletely understood, unstable relationships. While targeted research will increase our confidence in making predictions, some un-

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Kathleen A. Theoharides

Papers

Plant invasion across space and time: factors affecting nonindigenous species success during four stages of invasion.

factors affecting nonindigenous species success during four stages of invasion

Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: What can