Showing papers by "Kevin J. Noone published in 2013"

A safe operating space for humanity

Abstract: Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockstrom and colleagues.

Managing Ocean Environments in a Changing Climate: Sustainability and Economic Perspectives

Abstract: Managing Ocean Environments in a Changing Climate summarizes the current state of several threats to the global oceans. What distinguishes this book most from previous works is that this book begins with a holistic, global-scale focus for the first several chapters and then provides an example of how this approach can be applied on a regional scale, for the Pacific region. Previous works usually have compiled local studies, which are essentially impossible to properly integrate to the global scale. The editors have engaged leading scientists in a number of areas, such as fisheries and marine ecosystems, ocean chemistry, marine biogeochemical cycling, oceans and climate change, and economics, to examine the threats to the oceans both individually and collectively, provide gross estimates of the economic and societal impacts of these threats, and deliver high-level recommendations. * Nominated for a Katerva Award in 2012 in the Economy category* State of the science reviews by known marine experts provide a concise, readable presentation written at a level for managers and students* Links environmental and economic aspects of ocean threats and provides an economic analysis of action versus inaction* Provides recommendations for stakeholders to help stimulate the development of policies that would help move toward sustainable use of marine resources and services

Climate-induced changes in sea salt aerosol number emissions: 1870 to 2100

Abstract: Global climate model output is combined with an emission parameterization to estimate the change in the global and regional sea salt aerosol number emission from 1870 to 2100. Global average results suggest a general increase in sea salt aerosol number emission due to increasing surface wind speed. However, the emission changes are not uniform over the aerosol size spectrum due to an increase in sea surface temperature. From 1870 to 2100 the emission of coarse mode particles (dry diameter D-P > 655 nm) increase by approximately 10 % (global average), whereas no significant change in the emission of ultrafine mode aerosols (dry diameter D-p < 76 nm) was found over the same period. Significant regional differences in the number emission trends were also found. Based on CAM-Oslo global climate model output, no straight-forward relationship was found between the change in the number emissions and changes in the sea salt aerosol burden or optical thickness. This is attributed to a change in the simulated residence time of the sea salt aerosol. For the 21st century, a decrease in the residence time leads to a weaker sea salt aerosol-climate feedback that what would be inferred based on changes in number emissions alone. Finally, quantifying any potential impact on marine stratocumulus cloud microphysical and radiative properties due to changes in sea salt aerosol number emissions is likely to be complicated by commensurate changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions and changes in meteorology.

Chapter 3 – Ocean Warming

Abstract: The ocean is warming. Some of the consequences of increasing ocean temperatures such as coral bleaching are well recognized and relatively easy to attribute (at least in part) to ocean warming. Other consequences like changes in the life cycles of marine organisms or changes in extreme weather phenomena are more difficult to directly attribute to ocean warming, even though increasing ocean temperatures are one of the causal factors behind the changes. This chapter examines some of the important physical and biological consequences of ocean warming. We look at the relationship between increasing ocean temperatures and physical effects such as extreme weather and more intense tropical cyclones. We also examine how ocean warming can affect marine organisms and ecosystems, and what some of the consequences of these effects can be.

Valuing the Ocean: An Introduction

Abstract: This chapter provides background information for the scope, purpose, and structure of this book. Here, we introduce the main themes that are explored in the book and provide information that is common to all of them. We discuss the need for taking a holistic view of threats to the global ocean. We also introduce the background and boundary conditions for the economic analysis of the potential savings that could be accrued by acting now to mitigate these threats. We show how this analysis can be useful for decision support in the area of marine policy.

Sea-Level Rise

Abstract: In this chapter, we outline the causes of sea-level rise: thermal expansion, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, changes in land storage, and other residual sources. We describe observations of sea-level rise from a number of independent measurements such as tide gauges and satellites. These measurements show that sea level is rising (250 mm since 1850), and that sea-level rise is accelerating. We summarize current projections of sea-level rise, which range between 0.2 and 1.9 m by the end of the century, with most projections since 2007 being in the range of 1 m by 2100. We also discuss the impacts of sea-level rise on coastal communities and small island states.

Tipping Points, Uncertainty, and Precaution: Preparing for Surprise

Abstract: This chapter examines different methods for dealing with “unknown unknowns,” the differences between risk, uncertainty, and surprise. We examine different approaches for handling events that have a low (potentially even unknown) probability of occurring, but the consequences of which would be very large. We look at some of the potential tipping points in the marine system and show how a risk framework would be a better way of approaching these risks than simply trying to assess the uncertainty of the behavior in marine systems. We contrast three different approaches to developing scenarios for the future (approaches used by the IPCC, Shell, and the U.S. military) and examine what lessons can be learned in terms of how to peer into a murky future for global marine systems.