Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

A rapid and accurate radiative transfer model (RRTM) for climate applications has been developed and the results extensively evaluated. The current version of RRTM calculates fluxes and cooling rates for the longwave spectral region (10–3000 cm−1) for an arbitrary clear atmosphere. The molecular species treated in the model are water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, and the common halocarbons. The radiative transfer in RRTM is performed using the correlated-k method: the k distributions are attained directly from the LBLRTM line-by-line model, which connects the absorption coefficients used by RRTM to high-resolution radiance validations done with observations. Refined methods have been developed for treating bands containing gases with overlapping absorption, for the determination of values of the Planck function appropriate for use in the correlated-k approach, and for the inclusion of minor absorbing species in a band. The flux and cooling rate results of RRTM are linked to measurement through the use of LBLRTM, which has been substantially validated with observations. Validations of RRTM using LBLRTM have been performed for the midlatitude summer, tropical, midlatitude winter, subarctic winter, and four atmospheres from the Spectral Radiance Experiment campaign. On the basis of these validations the longwave accuracy of RRTM for any atmosphere is as follows: 0.6 W m−2 (relative to LBLRTM) for net flux in each band at all altitudes, with a total (10–3000 cm−1) error of less than 1.0 W m−2 at any altitude; 0.07 K d−1 for total cooling rate error in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, and 0.75 K d−1 in the upper stratosphere and above. Other comparisons have been performed on RRTM using LBLRTM to gauge its sensitivity to changes in the abundance of specific species, including the halocarbons and carbon dioxide. The radiative forcing due to doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide is attained with an accuracy of 0.24 W m−2, an error of less than 5%. The speed of execution of RRTM compares favorably with that of other rapid radiation models, indicating that the model is suitable for use in general circulation models.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JD00237

Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

/pdf/bounding-the-role-of-black-carbon-in-the-climate-system-a-1fc3novd9r.pdf

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

Increases in aerosol concentrations over the oceans may increase the amount of low-level cloudiness through a reduction in drizzle—a process that regulates the liquid-water content and the energetics of shallow marine clouds. The resulting increase in the global albedo would be in addition to the increase due to enhancement in reflectivity associated with a decrease in droplet size and would contribute to a cooling of the earth9s surface.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/245/4923/1227.full.pdf

Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness.

A geometric optics approach including surface wave contributions has been developed for homogeneous and concentrically coated spheres. In this approach, a ray-by-ray tracing program was used for efficient computation of the extinction and absorption cross sections. The present geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) theory for light scattering by spheres considers the surface wave contribution along the edge of a particle as a perturbation term to the geometric-optics core that includes Fresnel reflection–refraction and Fraunhofer diffraction. Accuracies of the GOS approach for spheres have been assessed through comparison with the results determined from the exact Lorenz–Mie (LM) theory in terms of the extinction efficiency, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor in the size–wavelength ratio domain. In this quest, we have selected a range of real and imaginary refractive indices representative of water/ice and aerosol species and demonstrated close agreement between the results computed by GOS and LM. This provides the foundation to conduct physically reliable light absorption and scattering computations based on the GOS approach for aerosol aggregates associated with internal and external mixing states employing spheres as building blocks.

/pdf/on-geometric-optics-and-surface-waves-for-light-scattering-362e5pgsmm.pdf

On geometric optics and surface waves for light scattering by spheres

Based on the principles of geometric optics, the ray-tracing technique has been extensively used to compute the single-scattering properties of particles whose sizes are much larger than the wavelength of the incident wave. However, the inhomogeneity characteristics of internal waves within an absorbing particle, which stem from a complex index of refraction, have not been fully taken into consideration in the geometric ray-tracing approaches reported in the literature for computing the scattering properties of absorbing particles. In this paper, we first demonstrate that electromagnetic fields associated with an absorbing particle can be decomposed into the TE and TM modes. Subsequently, on the basis of Maxwell's equations and electromagnetic boundary conditions for the TE-mode electric field and the TM-mode magnetic field, we derive generalized Fresnel reflection and refraction coefficients, which differ from conventional formulae and do not involve complex angles. Additionally, a recurrence formulism is developed for the computation of the scattering phase matrix of an absorbing particle within the framework of the conventional geometric ray-tracing method. We further present pertinent numerical examples for the phase function and the degree of linear polarization in conjunction with light scattering by individual absorbing spheres, and discuss the deviation of the geometric optics solutions from the exact Lorenz–Mie results with respect to size parameter and complex refractive index.

/pdf/an-exact-geometric-optics-approach-for-computing-the-optical-486uw59xmh.pdf

An exact geometric-optics approach for computing the optical properties of large absorbing particles

A 3D Monte Carlo model for specific application to the broadband thermal radiative transfer has been developed in which the emissivities for gases and cloud particles are parameterized by using a single cubic element as the building block in 3D space. For spectral integration in the thermal infrared, the correlated k-distribution method has been used for the sorting of gaseous absorption lines in multiple-scattering atmospheres involving 3D clouds. To check the Monte-Carlo simulation, we compare a variety of 1D broadband atmospheric fluxes and heating rates to those computed from the conventional plane-parallel (PP) model and demonstrate excellent agreement between the two. Comparisons of the Monte Carlo results for broadband thermal cooling rates in 3D clouds to those computed from the delta-diffusion approximation for 3D radiative transfer and the independent pixel-by-pixel approximation are subsequently carried out to understand the relative merits of these approaches.

A monte carlo method for 3D thermal infrared radiative transfer

We develop a stochastic aerosol-snow albedo model that explicitly resolves size distribution of aerosols internally mixed with various snow grains. We use the model to quantify black carbon (BC) size effects on snow albedo and optical properties for BC-snow internal mixing. Results show that BC-induced snow single-scattering coalbedo enhancement and albedo reduction decrease by a factor of 2–3 with increasing BC effective radii from 0.05 to 0.25 μm, while polydisperse BC results in up to 40% smaller visible single-scattering coalbedo enhancement and albedo reduction compared to monodisperse BC with equivalent effective radii. We further develop parameterizations for BC size effects for application to climate models. Compared with a realistic polydisperse assumption and observed shifts to larger BC sizes in snow, respectively, assuming monodisperse BC and typical atmospheric BC effective radii could lead to overestimates of ~24% and ~40% in BC-snow albedo forcing averaged over different BC and snow conditions. Plain Language Summary Snow albedo is a key element in the Earth and climate system, which is regulated by snow and impurity properties. Snow albedo can be substantially reduced by the presence of light-absorbing aerosols, such as black carbon (BC). However, very little attention has been paid to the impact of BC size on snow albedo reduction, while observations have shown large variations in BC size distribution in the atmosphere and snow. In this study, we have developed a new aerosol-snow albedo model to resolve aerosol size distribution mixed within various snow grains. We find that the BC effects on snow albedo decrease with increasing BC effective sizes and are also influenced by different assumptions of BC size distributions. We further develop parameterizations for BC size effects for application to climate models. This study points toward an urgent need for not only better model characterizations but also extensive measurements of BC size distribution in snow.

/pdf/resolving-size-distribution-of-black-carbon-internally-mixed-150ssm6y1f.pdf

Resolving Size Distribution of Black Carbon Internally Mixed With Snow: Impact on Snow Optical Properties and Albedo

Cirrus are thin, wispy clouds that appear at high altitude and consist of ice crystals. At midlatitu…

Kuo-Nan Liou

Papers

On geometric optics and surface waves for light scattering by spheres

An exact geometric-optics approach for computing the optical properties of large absorbing particles

A monte carlo method for 3D thermal infrared radiative transfer

Resolving Size Distribution of Black Carbon Internally Mixed With Snow: Impact on Snow Optical Properties and Albedo

Cirrus clouds and climate