The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper Climate Change and Water draws together and evaluates the information in IPCC Assessment and Special Reports concerning the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and regimes, and on freshwater resources – their availability, quality, use and management. It takes into account current and projected regional key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and water. Its objectives are:

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Climate change and water.

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.

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Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

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Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

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Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Food systems contribute 19%–29% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, releasing 9,800–16,900 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2008. Agricultural production, including indirect emissions associated with land-cover change, contributes 80%–86% of total food system emissions, with significant regional variation. The impacts of global climate change on food systems are expected to be widespread, complex, geographically and temporally variable, and profoundly influenced by socioeconomic conditions. Historical statistical studies and integrated assessment models provide evidence that climate change will affect agricultural yields and earnings, food prices, reliability of delivery, food quality, and, notably, food safety. Low-income producers and consumers of food will be more vulnerable to climate change owing to their comparatively limited ability to invest in adaptive institutions and technologies under increasing climatic risks. Some synergies among food security, adaptati...

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/881annurev.pdf

Climate Change and Food Systems

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Food, fibre and forest products

Follow this and additional works at: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ge_at_pubs Part of the Climate Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, and the Systems Biology Commons The complete bibliographic information for this item can be found at http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ ge_at_pubs/181. For information on how to cite this item, please visit http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ howtocite.html.

Ecosystems and Their Goods and Services

The North China Plain (NCP) is a cereal production base in China. However, the understanding of how climate extremes affect cereal production during past decades in the region is limited. Based on the statistical data of climate disasters and cultivated areas during 1950-2015, the relationship between regional cereal production and four meteorological disasters was examined. The results showed that during 1950-1980, the cultivated area for cereal production increased, accounting for 80-85% of the total cultivated area, but gradually decreased in the second 30 years after 1980. Flood disaster was the greatest in intensity compared with the other three meteorological disasters; drought was the most widespread and impactful. The effects of the four disasters became more noteworthy after 1980, and the spatiotemporal trend in the NCP was similar. Flood and drought had significant effects (P < 0.01) on cereal yield with path coefficients of -0.355 and -0.344, respectively. The harvest areas declined slowly and the yield increased slightly during the 7 disaster window years, suggesting that technology advancement offset the decline in cultivated areas and increased the yield. The effect of climate extremes on cereal production could be addressed through technology improvement and the implementation of preventive measures in the NCP. 

L. Erda

Papers

Food, fibre and forest products

Ecosystems and Their Goods and Services

Effects of Climate Extremes on Cereal Production in the North China Plain During 1950–2015