Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity – which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common-method variance, and measurement error – renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation could be confounded; these methods include fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66% and up to 90% of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

On making causal claims : A review and recommendations

Part 1 The glimmerings 1718-1826: silhouette of a renaissance reaction against innovation the new social order and its fall. Part 2 The breakthrough 1826-1878: foundations of a secular state Tanzimat the economic and political impact of the West the secularism of the Tanzimat the constitutional movement constitution of 1876. Part 3 The reaction 1878-1908: constitutional absolutism the reactions against the reaction. Part 4 Search for a fulcrum 1908-19: the Mesrutiyet three proposed roads to reconstruction reforming the institutions the secularism of the Mesrutiyet. Part 5 The struggle for establishment of a secular nation-state 1919-39: the birth of a nation under fire the Kemalist reforms the secularism of the Kemalist regime.

The Development of Secularism in Turkey

CO2 emissions patterns in 7 top carbon emitter economies: The case of transport sector

The Politics of Secularism in International Relations

The restrictive measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have triggered sudden massive changes to travel behaviors of people all around the world. This study examines the individual mobility patterns for all transport modes (walk, bicycle, motorcycle, car driven alone, car driven in company, bus, subway, tram, train, airplane) before and during the restrictions adopted in ten countries on six continents: Australia, Brazil, China, Ghana, India, Iran, Italy, Norway, South Africa and the United States. This cross-country study also aims at understanding the predictors of protective behaviors related to the transport sector and COVID-19. Findings hinge upon an online survey conducted in May 2020 (N = 9,394). The empirical results quantify tremendous disruptions for both commuting and non-commuting travels, highlighting substantial reductions in the frequency of all types of trips and use of all modes. In terms of potential virus spread, airplanes and buses are perceived to be the riskiest transport modes, while avoidance of public transport is consistently found across the countries. According to the Protection Motivation Theory, the study sheds new light on the fact that two indicators, namely income inequality, expressed as Gini index, and the reported number of deaths due to COVID-19 per 100,000 inhabitants, aggravate respondents' perceptions. This research indicates that socio-economic inequality and morbidity are not only related to actual health risks, as well documented in the relevant literature, but also to the perceived risks. These findings document the global impact of the COVID-19 crisis as well as provide guidance for transportation practitioners in developing future strategies.

/pdf/impact-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-mobility-in-ten-countries-and-2logtrf2vh.pdf

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mobility in ten countries and associated perceived risk for all transport modes.

Human mobility and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a negative binomial regression analysis.

Using a framework developed by Hood and adapting it to crises, we explore the factors behind the use of three types of political accountability strategies— presentational, policy, and agency—during responses to the COVID-19 crisis in Greece and Turkey. We situate the comparison in the current political context and conclude with implications for political survival as leaders attempt to balance public accountability, political expediency, and national health.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/epa2.1089

Claiming credit and avoiding blame: political accountability in Greek and Turkish responses to the COVID-19 crisis

This article discusses Europe’s climate change policies with an insight into the targets of 2015 Paris Agreement (keeping global temperature below 2°C and achieving zero carbon emissions in the second half of the century). Even though the European Union (EU) member states have increased their consumption of renewables and reduced their greenhouse gas emissions, oil remains the biggest energy source for Europe. This article argues that while the EU member states can achieve the targets of their climate pledges under the Paris climate mechanism with their current climate change policies, the large share of oil in European energy consumption may keep Europe from reaching its goal of zero-carbon economy.

Europe’s climate change policies: The Paris Agreement and beyond

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/mepo.12404

Syria and Turkey: Border‐Security Priorities

After the US-backed international military alliance toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001, most Afghan militants took shelter in neighboring Pakistan, blending into Pakistan’s tribal groups. E...

Lacin Idil Oztig

Papers

Human mobility and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a negative binomial regression analysis.

Claiming credit and avoiding blame: political accountability in Greek and Turkish responses to the COVID-19 crisis

Europe’s climate change policies: The Paris Agreement and beyond

Syria and Turkey: Border‐Security Priorities

Pakistan’s Border Policies and Security Dynamics along the Pakistan–Afghanistan Border