It is hypothesized that collective efficacy, defined as social cohesion among neighbors combined with their willingness to intervene on behalf of the common good, is linked to reduced violence. This hypothesis was tested on a 1995 survey of 8782 residents of 343 neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois. Multilevel analyses showed that a measure of collective efficacy yields a high between-neighborhood reliability and is negatively associated with variations in violence, when individual-level characteristics, measurement error, and prior violence are controlled. Associations of concentrated disadvantage and residential instability with violence are largely mediated by collective efficacy.

Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy

Preface1Difference Equations12Lag Operators253Stationary ARMA Processes434Forecasting725Maximum Likelihood Estimation1176Spectral Analysis1527Asymptotic Distribution Theory1808Linear Regression Models2009Linear Systems of Simultaneous Equations23310Covariance-Stationary Vector Processes25711Vector Autoregressions29112Bayesian Analysis35113The Kalman Filter37214Generalized Method of Moments40915Models of Nonstationary Time Series43516Processes with Deterministic Time Trends45417Univariate Processes with Unit Roots47518Unit Roots in Multivariate Time Series54419Cointegration57120Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Cointegrated Systems63021Time Series Models of Heteroskedasticity65722Modeling Time Series with Changes in Regime677A Mathematical Review704B Statistical Tables751C Answers to Selected Exercises769D Greek Letters and Mathematical Symbols Used in the Text786Author Index789Subject Index792

https://sisis.rz.htw-berlin.de/inh2007/12357004.pdf

Time series analysis

Shaw and McKay's influential theory of community social disorganization has never been directly tested. To address this, a community-level theory that builds on Shaw and McKay's original model is formulated and tested. The general hypothesis is that low economic status, ethnic heterogeneity, residential mobility, and family disruption lead to community social disorganization, which, in turn, increases crime and delinquency rates. A community's level of social organization is measured in terms of local friendship networks, control of street-corner teenage peer groups, and prevalence of organizational participation. The model is first tested by analyzing data for 238 localities in Great Britain constructed from a 1982 national survey of 10,905 residents. The model is then replicated on an independent national sample of 11,030 residents of 300 British localities in 1984. Results from both surveys support the theory and show that between-community variations in social disorganization transmit much of the effect of community structural characteristics on rates of both criminal victimization and criminal offending.

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3226955/Sampson_CommunityStructureCrime.pdf?sequence=2

Community Structure and Crime: Testing Social-Disorganization Theory

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The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, The Underclass, and Public Policy.

\s=b\To ascertain the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and risk factors associated with it, we studied a random sample of 1007 young adults from a large health maintenance organization in the Detroit, Mich, area. The lifetime prevalence of exposure to traumatic events was 39.1%. The rate of PTSD in those who were exposed was 23.6%, yielding a lifetime prevalence in the sample of 9.2%. Persons with PTSD were at increased risk for other psychiatric disorders; PTSD had stronger associations with anxiety and affective disorders than with substance abuse or dependence. Risk factors for exposure to traumatic events included low education, male sex, early conduct problems, extraversion, and family history of psychiatric disorder or substance problems. Risk factors for PTSD following exposure included early separation from parents, neuroticism, preexisting anxiety or depression, and family history of anxiety. Life-style differences associated with differential exposure to situations that have a high risk for traumatic events and personal predispositions to the PTSD effects of traumatic events might be responsible for a substantial part of PTSD in this population. (Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1991 ;48:216-222)

Traumatic events and posttraumatic stress disorder in an urban population of young adults

In this paper we present a "routine activity approach" for analyzing crime rate trends and cycles. Rather than emphasizing the characteristics of offenders, with this approach we concentrate upon the circumstances in which they carry out predatory criminal acts. Most criminal acts require convergence in space and time of likely offenders, suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime. Human ecological theory facilitates an investigation into the way in which social structure produces this convergence, hence allowing illegal activities to feed upon the legal activities of everyday life. In particular, we hypothesize that the dispersion of activities away from households and families increases the opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates. A variety of data is presented in support of the hypothesis, which helps explain crime rate trends in the United States 1947-1974 as a byproduct of changes in such variables as labor force participation and single-adult households.

Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach

This study demonstrate that the empirical literature on the structural convariates of homicide rates contains inconsistent findings across different time periods and different geographical units. This apparent variance of findings may be due to statistical or methodological artifacts of particular studies, such as different time periods covered, units of analysis, samples, model specification, and problems of statistical analysis and inference. A baseline regression model using 11 structural covariates is estimated for cities, metropolitan areas, and states in 1960, 1970, and 1980. The empirical estimates of this model exhibit instability because of high levels of collinearity among several regressors. Principal components analysis is applied to simplify the dimensionally of the structural covariate space. Reestimation of the regression model then indicates that the apparent inconsistencies across time and social space are greatly reduced. The theoretical significance of the findings for substantive theor...

/pdf/structural-covariates-of-homicide-rates-are-there-any-6ixlrpp9x3.pdf

Structural Covariates of Homicide Rates: Are There Any Invariances Across Time and Social Space?

This study systematically tests a formal theory of how certain dimensions of social stratification-income, race, and age-relate to risk of predatory criminal victimization. An opportunity theory of criminal victimization is proposed, focusing on the mediating role played byfive riskfactors: exposure, guardianship, proximity to potential offenders, attractiveness of potential targets, and definitional properties of specific crimes themselves. Propositions are derived pertaining to the bivariate and multivariate-partial (main) effects expected from the theory and tested in analyses based on a representative sample of the U.S. population for the crimes of assault, burglary, and personal larceny. These data indicate that the relationship between the dimensions of social stratification and the offenses studied here is complex, and that, other things being equal, those usually thought to be most vulnerable economically and socially-the poor, the nonwhite, the old-are not the most likely victims of crime. Race has little direct effect on victimization risk, while age is inversely related to each type of crime at both the bivariate and multivariate levels of analyses. The findings are largely consistent with the proposed theory.

Victimization: an exposition and test of a formal theory*

This study systematically tests a formal theory of how certain dimensions of social stratification--income, race, and age--relate to risk of predatory criminal victimization. An opportunity theory of criminal victimization is proposed, focusing on the mediating role played by five risk factors: exposure, guardianship, proximity to potential offenders, attractiveness of potential targets, and definitional properties of specific crimes themselves. Propositions are derived pertaining to the bivariate and multivariate-partial (main) effects expected from the theory and tested in analyses based on a representative sample of the U.S. population for the crimes of assault, burglary, and personal larceny. These data indicate that the relationship between the dimensions of social stratification and the offenses studied here is complex, and that, other things being equal, those usually thought to be most vulnerable economically and socially--the poor, the nonwhite, the old--are not the most likely victims of crime. Race has little direct effect on victimization risk, while age is inversely related to each type of crime at both the bivariate and multivariate levels of analyses. The findings are largely consistent with the proposed theory. (abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 1981. Copyright © 1981 by the American Sociological Association) Victimization Causes Crime Victim Violence Victim Racial Factors Age Factors Socioeconomic Factors Victimization Risk Factors 07-02

Social Inequality and Predatory Criminal Victimization: An Exposition and Test of a Formal Theory

Prior explanations of the distributions of crime have tended to emphasize the criminal intentions of people without considering adequately the circumstances in which criminal acts occur. This paper examines how community structure generates these circumstances and applies Amos Hawley's human ecological theory in treating criminal acts as routine activities which feed upon other routine activities. For example, we consider how married women in the labor force, persons living alone, and lightweight durable goods provide offenders with circumstances favorable for carrying out certain illegal acts. We examine in particular how directcontact predatory violations require the convergence in space and time of offenders, suitable targets,and the absence of effective guardians.Various trends in the social structure can alter crime rates by affecting the likelihood of this convergence, without necessarily requiring changes in the criminal inclinations of individuals.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/4602572.pdf

Lawrence E. Cohen

Papers

Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach

Structural Covariates of Homicide Rates: Are There Any Invariances Across Time and Social Space?

Victimization: an exposition and test of a formal theory*

Social Inequality and Predatory Criminal Victimization: An Exposition and Test of a Formal Theory

Human ecology and crime: A routine activity approach