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Using Multivariate Statistics

Objective To present estimates of the lifetime prevalence of DSM-IV mental disorders with and without severe impairment, their comorbidity across broad classes of disorder, and their sociodemographic correlates. Method The National Comorbidity Survey–Adolescent Supplement NCS-A is a nationally representative face-to-face survey of 10,123 adolescents aged 13 to 18 years in the continental United States. DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed using a modified version of the fully structured World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Results Anxiety disorders were the most common condition (31.9%), followed by behavior disorders (19.1%), mood disorders (14.3%), and substance use disorders (11.4%), with approximately 40% of participants with one class of disorder also meeting criteria for another class of lifetime disorder. The overall prevalence of disorders with severe impairment and/or distress was 22.2% (11.2% with mood disorders, 8.3% with anxiety disorders, and 9.6% behavior disorders). The median age of onset for disorder classes was earliest for anxiety (6 years), followed by 11 years for behavior, 13 years for mood, and 15 years for substance use disorders. Conclusions These findings provide the first prevalence data on a broad range of mental disorders in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adolescents. Approximately one in every four to five youth in the U.S. meets criteria for a mental disorder with severe impairment across their lifetime. The likelihood that common mental disorders in adults first emerge in childhood and adolescence highlights the need for a transition from the common focus on treatment of U.S. youth to that of prevention and early intervention.

Lifetime Prevalence of Mental Disorders in U.S. Adolescents: Results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication-Adolescent Supplement (NCS-A)

25. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. By D. B. Rubin. ISBN 0 471 08705 X. Wiley, Chichester, 1987. 258 pp. £30.25.

Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys

Much has been written about theory and practice in the law, and the tension between practitioners and theorists. Judges do not cite theoretical articles often; they rarely "apply" theories to particular cases. These arguments are not revisited. Instead the Essay explores the working and interaction of theory and practice, practitioners and theorists. The Essay starts with a story about solving a legal issue using our intellectual tools - theory, practice, and their progenies: experience and "gut." Next the Essay elaborates on the nature of theory, practice, experience and "gut." The third part of the Essay discusses theories that are helpful to practitioners and those that are less helpful. The Essay concludes that practitioners theorize, and theorists practice. They use these intellectual tools differently because the goals and orientations of theorists and practitioners, and the constraints under which they act, differ. Theory, practice, experience and "gut" help us think, remember, decide and create. They complement each other like the two sides of the same coin: distinct but inseparable.

Of Theory and Practice

Our future: a Lancet commission on adolescent health and wellbeing

Psychiatry and Deaths of Despair.

Objective Poor behavioral self-regulation in the first 2 decades of life has been identified as an important precursor of disease risk in adulthood. However, physiological regulation has not been well studied as a disease risk factor before adulthood. We tested whether physiological regulation at the age of 2 years, in the form of vagal regulation of cardiac function (indexed by respiratory sinus arrhythmia [RSA] change), would predict three indicators of cardiovascular risk at the age of 16 years (diastolic and systolic blood pressure and body mass index). Methods Data came from 229 children who participated in a community-based longitudinal study. At the age of 2 years, children were assessed for RSA baseline and RSA change (ln(ms)) in response to a series of challenge tasks. These same children were assessed again at the age of 16 years for diastolic and systolic blood pressure (millimeters of mercury), height (meters), and weight (kilogram). Results Regression analyses revealed that less RSA withdrawal at the age of 2 years predicted higher diastolic blood pressure at the age of 16 years, adjusting for demographic characteristics (B = -3.07, M [S E] = 1.12, p = .006). Follow-up analyses demonstrated that these predictions extended to clinically significant levels of diastolic prehypertension (odds ratio = 0.43, 95% confidence interval = 0.22-0.89). RSA withdrawal did not significantly predict adolescent body mass index or systolic blood pressure. Conclusions Vagal regulation of cardiac function in early childhood predicts select indicators of cardiovascular risk 14 years later. Early signs of attenuated vagal regulation could indicate an increased risk for elevated blood pressure before adulthood. Future research should test biological, behavioral, and psychological mechanisms underlying these long-term predictions.

/pdf/vagal-regulation-of-cardiac-function-in-early-childhood-and-1cf9cd04bs.pdf

Vagal Regulation of Cardiac Function in Early Childhood and Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescence.

Objective Research on associations of early cannabis use with adult functioning reports mixed findings. This may be due, in part, to wide variations in the definitions of early cannabis use. This study aims to compare associations of 4 commonly used definitions of early cannabis use—related to timing, dose, duration, and associated symptoms—with adult outcomes. Method Analyses were based on a 20+-year longitudinal, community-representative study of 1,420 participants. Between ages 9 and 21 years (8,806 observations), participants were assessed for cannabis use and DSM-5 Cannabis Use Disorder. In early adulthood (ages 24-26 and 30; 2,424 observations of 1,266 subjects), participants were also assessed for psychiatric, substance use, and functional outcomes. Results All definitions of early use were associated with multiple adult outcomes in models that adjusted for sex and race/ethnicity. In models that also adjusted for childhood psychiatric problems and family adversities, only daily use and a persistent developmental subtype (defined as daily/problematic use that began in adolescence and continued into early adulthood) were associated with later substance use/disorders, poorer functional outcomes, and derailments in the transition to adulthood. Conclusion Daily, continued-over-time cannabis use beginning on adolescence was most problematic for a range of adult outcomes. Cessation of early use did not fully eliminate later risks; but was associated with fewer negative outcomes, with weaker effect sizes.

Adult Psychiatric, Substance, and Functional Outcomes of Different Definitions of Early Cannabis Use.

Similarities and differences in adolescent siblings' free time activities were investigated. Firstborns and second-borns from 181 predominantly White, working, and middle-class families reported on their time use and sibling relationships. Their parents reported on their socioeconomic status and neighborhood characteristics. Cluster analysis identified three groups of sibling dyads: Cluster 1 differentiated in leisure and time with friends, Cluster 2 differentiated in instrumental activities and time alone, and Cluster 3 did not differentiate in time use. Multinomial logistic regressions revealed that the longitudinal links between sibling relationship qualities and cluster membership were moderated by firstborns' sex. Findings highlight the importance of person-oriented analytic strategies for understanding sibling similarities and differences and of within-family variability in youth's time use.

Sibling similarities and differences in time use: A pattern-analytic, within-family approach

Large-scale epidemiological research often uses self-reports to determine the prevalence of illicit substance use. Self-reports may suffer from inaccurate reporting but can be verified with objective measures. This study examined the following: the prevalence of illicit and non-medical substance use with self-reports and hair toxicology, the convergence of self-reported and objectively quantified substance use, and the correlates of under- and overreporting.The data came from a large urban cohort study of young adults (n = 1,002, mean age = 20.6 years, 50% female). The participants provided 3 cm of hair (covering the previous 3 months) and reported their illicit and non-medical substance use and their sociodemographic, psychological, and behavioral characteristics. Hair toxicology analyses targeted cannabinoids, ketamine, opiates/opioids, stimulants including 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, and relevant metabolites.Self-reports underestimated the prevalence of most substances by 30% to 60% compared to hair tests. The average detection ratio (hair test/self-report) was 1.50. Hair tests were typically more sensitive than self-reports. Underreporting was associated with a low level of that substance in hair. Self-reported delinquency and psychopathology were correlated with an increased likelihood of concordant positive self-reports and hair tests compared to underreporting. Overreporting was associated with infrequent self-reported use.Our study suggests that self-reports underestimate young adults' exposure to illicit substances and non-medical use of prescription drugs. Consequently, estimates of associations between substance use and risk factors or outcomes are likely biased. Combining self-reports with hair tests may be most beneficial in study samples with occasional substance use. Researchers can use specific factors (eg, detection ratios) to adjust prevalence estimates and correlations based on self-reports. 

http://www.jaacap.org/article/S089085672300045X/pdf

Lilly Shanahan

Papers

Psychiatry and Deaths of Despair.

Vagal Regulation of Cardiac Function in Early Childhood and Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescence.

Adult Psychiatric, Substance, and Functional Outcomes of Different Definitions of Early Cannabis Use.

Sibling similarities and differences in time use: A pattern-analytic, within-family approach

When Substance Use is Underreported: Comparing Self-Reports and Hair Toxicology in an Urban Cohort of Young Adults.