Background 
Human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome associated morbidity and mortality has reduced significantly since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. As a result of increasing access to highly active antiretroviral therapy, the survival and quality of life of the patients has significantly improved globally. Despite this promising result, regular monitoring of people on antiretroviral therapy is recommended to ensure whether there is an effective treatment response or not. This study was designed to assess virological and immunological failure of highly active antiretroviral therapy users among adults and adolescents in the Tigray region of Northern Ethiopia, where scanty data are available.


Methods 
A retrospective follow up study was conducted from September 1 to December 30, 2016 to assess the magnitude and factors associated with virological and immunological failure among 260 adults and adolescents highly active antiretroviral therapy users who started first line ART between January 1, 2008 to March 1, 2016. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic and clinical data. SPSS Version21 statistical software was used for analysis. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated to virological and immunological failure. Statistical association was declared significant if p-value was ≤ 0.05.


Result 
A total of 30 (11.5%) and 17 (6.5%) participants experienced virological and immunological failure respectively in a median time of 36 months of highly active antiretroviral therapy. Virological failure was associated with non-adherence to medications, aged < 40 years old, having CD4+ T-cells count < 250 cells/μL and male gender. Similarly, immunological failure was associated with non-adherence, tuberculosis co-infection and Human immunodeficiency virus RNA ≥1000 copies/mL.


Conclusions 
The current result shows that immunological and virological failure is a problem in a setting where highly active antiretroviral therapy has been largely scale up. The problem is more in patients with poor adherence. This will in turn affect the global targets of 90% viral suppression by 2020. This may indicate the need for more investment and commitment to improving patient adherence in the study area.

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Virological and immunological failure of HAART and associated risk factors among adults and adolescents in the Tigray region of Northern Ethiopia.

Treatment with effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) lowers morbidity and mortality among HIV positive individuals Effective highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) should lead to undetectable viral load within 6 months of initiation of therapy Failure to achieve and maintain viral suppression may lead to development of resistance and increase the risk of viral transmission In this paper three logistic regression based machine learning approaches are developed to predict early virological outcomes using easily measurable baseline demographic and clinical variables (age, body weight, sex, TB disease status, ART regimen, viral load, CD4 count) The predictive performance and generalizability of the approaches are compared The multitask temporal logistic regression (MTLR), patient specific survival prediction (PSSP) and simple logistic regression (SLR) models were developed and validated using the IDI research cohort data and predictive performance tested on an external dataset from the EFV cohort The model calibration and discrimination plots, discriminatory measures (AUROC, F1) and overall predictive performance (brier score) were assessed The MTLR model outperformed the PSSP and SLR models in terms of goodness of fit (RMSE = 0053, 01, and 014 respectively), discrimination (AUROC = 092, 075 and 053 respectively) and general predictive performance (Brier score= 008, 019, 011 respectively) The predictive importance of variables varied with time after initiation of ART The final MTLR model accurately (accuracy = 929%) predicted outcomes in the external (EFV cohort) dataset with satisfactory discrimination (0878) and a low (69%) false positive rate Multitask Logistic regression based models are capable of accurately predicting early virological suppression using readily available baseline demographic and clinical variables and could be used to derive a risk score for use in resource limited settings

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A comparative study of logistic regression based machine learning techniques for prediction of early virological suppression in antiretroviral initiating HIV patients

Background 
Due to the limited availability of viral load testing for treatment outcome monitoring in resource limited settings, identifying predictive factors of antiretroviral treatment failure will help in selecting clients who will benefit most from the targeted use of viral load monitoring. Little is known about the predictors of treatment failure in the study area. This study was conducted to determine factors that predict first-line antiretroviral therapy failure among HIV-infected adult clients at Woldia Hospital, Northeast Ethiopia. For this study, antiretroviral therapy treatment failure was defined as the fulfillment of clinical and/or immunological criteria set by WHO.


Methods 
Case-control study was carried out from November to December 2014. Cases were adult clients who were on failing first line regimen and on active follow up while controls were those adult clients on a non-failing first-line regimen for 36 months and above and on active follow up. Data was entered in to Epi Info version 7 and was exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Binary logistic regression model was used to identify predictors of ART failure.


Results 
A total of 59 cases and 245 controls were included in the analysis. Sixty three percent of the participants were females and the median age at ART enrollment was 33 years (IQR; 28, 40). The median baseline CD4count was not significantly different among cases and controls (105 (IQR = 60–174)vs.131 (IQR = 72.5–189.0); p = 0.301). The median peak CD4 count in the failure group (230 (IQR = 123–387)) was significantly low compared to the non-failure group (463 (IQR = 348.5–577)) [p < 0.001]. High peak CD4count (AOR = 0.993; 95% CI 0.990, 0.996) and longer duration on ART (AOR = 0.923; 95% CI 0.893, 0.954) were protective of treatment failure. In addition stavudine based regimen (AOR = 3.47; 95% CI 1.343, 10.555), low baseline BMI (AOR = 2.75; 95% CI 1.012, 7.457), unemployment (AOR = 4.93; 95% CI 1.493, 16.305) and formal educational level (AOR = 5.15; 95% CI 1.534, 17.276) were independently significant predictors of treatment failure.


Conclusions 
In this setting low peak CD4count, shorter duration on first line ART, d4T based regimen, low baseline BMI, unemployment and formal educational level were significantly associated with increased treatment failure. Retaining patients on their initial first line regimen with appropriate follow up and improving their socioeconomic status through various livelihood initiatives should be strengthened.

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Predictors of first-line antiretroviral therapy failure amongst HIV-infected adult clients at Woldia Hospital, Northeast Ethiopia

BackgroundPlasma viral load (pVL) is a key indicator of therapeutic response in HIV-infected patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), but is often unavailable in routine clinic...

High Level of Virological Suppression among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Combination Antiretroviral Therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia:

Antiretroviral treatment has played a pivotal role in the reduction of HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. However, treatment options can be impaired by the development of antiretroviral treatment failure. Regular monitoring of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment outcome via viral load tests is the key approach. There is a scarcity of information about HIV treatment failure and risk factors in the study area. Therefore, the study was aimed to assess antiretroviral treatment failure and associated factors among patients on first-line antiretroviral treatment at Tefera Hailu Memorial Hospital, Sekota, northeast Ethiopia. A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 295 patients on first-line antiretroviral treatment from Nov. 2018 to Apr. 2019. Socio-demographic and clinical variables were collected using a pretested questionnaire, and blood specimen was collected for PCR viral load and CD4 + cell count estimation. Data were entered into Epi-Info and exported to SPSS for analysis. A binary logistic regression model was used to identify associated factors, and P value < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Of the 295 subjects on first-line ART, 49 (16.6%) and 18 (6.1%) experienced virological and immunological failures, respectively. The failure of the former was associated with poor adherence (AOR: 6.367, P < 0.001), CD4 + count < 500 cells/µL (AOR: 4.78, P = 0.031) and shorter (6–24 months) duration on ART (AOR: 0.48, P = 0.048), while poor treatment adherence (AOR: 11.51, P = 0.012) and drug interruption (AOR: 6.374, P = 0.039) were the independent risk factors for latter. Immunological tests to predict virological failures showed as sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 20.4%, 96.7%, 55.5%, and 86.0%, respectively. The rate of ART failure was considerably high. Poor adherence, low CD4 + count, prolonged ART, and drug interruption were found to be the most predictor variables for virological and immunological failures. The discrimination power of the immunological parameter was low in comparison to virological measurements as standard methods. Therefore, the study highlighted the need for more attention and efforts to curb associated factors and maximize virological tests for monitoring treatment failures.

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Antiretroviral treatment failure and associated factors among HIV patients on first-line antiretroviral treatment in Sekota, northeast Ethiopia.

Background
The ongoing scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa has prompted the interest in surveillance of transmitted and acquired HIV drug resistance. Resistance data on virological failure and mutations in HIV infected populations initiating treatment in sub-Saharan Africa is sparse.

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Lone H Christensen

Papers

Drug resistance in HIV patients with virological failure or slow virological response to antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia.