Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review

The red imported fire ant is considered one of the most notorious invasive species because of its adverse impact on both humans and ecosystems. Public concern regarding red imported fire ants has been increasing, as they have been found seven times in South Korea. Even if red imported fire ants are not yet colonized in South Korea, a proper quarantine plan is necessary to prevent their widespread distribution. As a basis for quarantine planning, we modeled the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under current climate conditions using six different species distribution models (SDMs) and then selected the random forest (RF) model for modeling the potential distribution under climate change. We acquired occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and bioclimatic data from WorldClim. We modeled at the global scale to project the potential distribution under the current climate and then applied models at the local scale to project the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under climate change. Modeled results successfully represent the current distribution of red imported fire ants. The potential distribution area for red imported fire ants increased to include major harbors and airports in South Korea under the climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, we are able to provide a potential distribution of red imported fire ant that is necessary to establish a proper quarantine plan for their management to minimize adverse impacts of climate change.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Species, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), under Climate Change using Species Distribution Models

Supernumerary mini-chromosomes-a unique type of genomic structural variation-have been implicated in the emergence of virulence traits in plant pathogenic fungi. However, the mechanisms that facilitate the emergence and maintenance of mini-chromosomes across fungi remain poorly understood. In the blast fungus Magnaporthe oryzae (Syn. Pyricularia oryzae), mini-chromosomes have been first described in the early 1990s but, until very recently, have been overlooked in genomic studies. Here we investigated structural variation in four isolates of the blast fungus M. oryzae from different grass hosts and analyzed the sequences of mini-chromosomes in the rice, foxtail millet and goosegrass isolates. The mini-chromosomes of these isolates turned out to be highly diverse with distinct sequence composition. They are enriched in repetitive elements and have lower gene density than core-chromosomes. We identified several virulence-related genes in the mini-chromosome of the rice isolate, including the virulence-related polyketide synthase Ace1 and two variants of the effector gene AVR-Pik. Macrosynteny analyses around these loci revealed structural rearrangements, including inter-chromosomal translocations between core- and mini-chromosomes. Our findings provide evidence that mini-chromosomes emerge from structural rearrangements and segmental duplication of core-chromosomes and might contribute to adaptive evolution of the blast fungus.

/pdf/genomic-rearrangements-generate-hypervariable-mini-2rhhluequ4.pdf

Genomic rearrangements generate hypervariable mini-chromosomes in host-specific isolates of the blast fungus

Relationship between net primary production and climate change in different vegetation zones based on EEMD detrending – A case study of Northwest China

. The Countryside Survey (CS) of Great Britain provides a globally unique series of datasets, consisting of an extensive set of repeated ecological measurements at a national scale, covering a time span of 29 years. CS was first undertaken in 1978 to monitor ecological and land use change in Britain using standardised procedures for recording ecological data from representative 1 km squares throughout the country. The same sites, with some additional squares, were used for subsequent surveys of vegetation undertaken in 1990, 1998 and 2007, with the intention of future surveys. Other data records include soils, freshwater habitats and invertebrates, and land cover and landscape feature diversity and extents. These data have been recorded in the same locations on analogous dates. However, the present paper describes only the details of the vegetation surveys. The survey design is a series of gridded, stratified, randomly selected 1 km squares taken as representative of classes derived from a statistical environmental classification of Britain. In the 1978 survey, 256 one-kilometre sample squares were recorded, increasing to 506 in 1990, 569 in 1998 and 591 in 2007. Initially each square contained up to 11 dispersed vegetation plots but additional plots were later placed in different features so that eventually up to 36 additional sampling plots were recorded, all of which can be relocated where possible (unless the plot has been lost, for example as a consequence of building work), providing a total of 16 992 plots by 2007. Plots are estimated to have a precise relocation accuracy of 85 %. A range of plots located in different land cover types and landscape features (for example, field boundaries) are included. Although a range of analyses have already been carried out, with changes in the vegetation being related to a range of drivers at local and national scales, there is major potential for further analyses, for example in relation to climate change. Although the precise locations of the plots are restricted, largely for reasons of landowner confidentiality, sample sites are intended to be representative of larger areas, and many potential opportunities for further analyses remain. Data from each of the survey years (1978, 1990, 1998, 2007) are available via the following DOIs: Countryside Survey 1978 vegetation plot data ( https://doi.org/10.5285/67bbfabb-d981-4ced-b7e7-225205de9c96 ), Countryside Survey 1990 vegetation plot data ( https://doi.org/10.5285/26e79792-5ffc-4116-9ac7-72193dd7f191 ), Countryside Survey 1998 vegetation plot data ( https://doi.org/10.5285/07896bb2-7078-468c-b56d-fb8b41d47065 ), Countryside Survey 2007 vegetation plot data ( https://doi.org/10.5285/57f97915-8ff1-473b-8c77-2564cbd747bc ).

/pdf/long-term-vegetation-monitoring-in-great-britain-the-2phvfxk0lc.pdf

Long-term vegetation monitoring in Great Britain – the Countryside Survey 1978–2007 and beyond

The £15 billion cost of ash dieback in Britain.

High-quality abundance data are expensive and time-consuming
to collect and often highly limited in availability. Nonetheless, accurate, high-resolution abundance distributions are essential for many ecological applications ranging from species conservation to epidemiology. Producing models that can predict abundance well, with good resolution over large areas, has therefore been an important aim in ecology, but poses considerable challenges. We present a two-stage approach to modeling abundance, combining two established techniques. First, we produce ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) of trees in Great Britain at a fine resolution, using much more
common presence–absence data and key environmental variables. We then use random forest regression to predict abundance by linking the results of the SDMs to a
much smaller amount of abundance data. We show that this method performs well in predicting the abundance of 20 of 25 tested British tree species, a group that is generally
considered challenging for modeling distributions due to the strong influence of human activities. Maps of predicted tree abundance for the whole of Great Britain are provided at 1 km2 resolution. Abundance maps have a far wider variety of applications than presence-only maps, and these maps should allow improvements to aspects of woodland management and conservation including analysis of habitats and ecosystem functioning, epidemiology, and disease management, providing a useful contribution to the protection of British trees. We also provide complete R scripts to facilitate application of the approach to other scenarios.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.2661

Abundance distributions for tree species in Great Britain: A two‐stage approach to modeling abundance using species distribution modeling and random forest

/pdf/maintaining-ecosystem-properties-after-loss-of-ash-in-great-3jk2bgvp5u.pdf

Louise Hill

Papers

The £15 billion cost of ash dieback in Britain.

Abundance distributions for tree species in Great Britain: A two‐stage approach to modeling abundance using species distribution modeling and random forest

Maintaining ecosystem properties after loss of ash in Great Britain