Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world’s energy needs over the next 50years and limit atmospheric CO 2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.

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Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change

Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry Coordinating Lead Authors: Kenneth L. Denman (Canada), Guy Brasseur (USA, Germany) Lead Authors: Amnat Chidthaisong (Thailand), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter M. Cox (UK), Robert E. Dickinson (USA), Didier Hauglustaine (France), Christoph Heinze (Norway, Germany), Elisabeth Holland (USA), Daniel Jacob (USA, France), Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Srikanthan Ramachandran (India), Pedro Leite da Silva Dias (Brazil), Steven C. Wofsy (USA), Xiaoye Zhang (China) Contributing Authors: D. Archer (USA), V. Arora (Canada), J. Austin (USA), D. Baker (USA), J.A. Berry (USA), R. Betts (UK), G. Bonan (USA), P. Bousquet (France), J. Canadell (Australia), J. Christian (Canada), D.A. Clark (USA), M. Dameris (Germany), F. Dentener (EU), D. Easterling (USA), V. Eyring (Germany), J. Feichter (Germany), P. Friedlingstein (France, Belgium), I. Fung (USA), S. Fuzzi (Italy), S. Gong (Canada), N. Gruber (USA, Switzerland), A. Guenther (USA), K. Gurney (USA), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), J. House (UK), A. Jones (UK), C. Jones (UK), B. Karcher (Germany), M. Kawamiya (Japan), K. Lassey (New Zealand), C. Le Quere (UK, France, Canada), C. Leck (Sweden), J. Lee-Taylor (USA, UK), Y. Malhi (UK), K. Masarie (USA), G. McFiggans (UK), S. Menon (USA), J.B. Miller (USA), P. Peylin (France), A. Pitman (Australia), J. Quaas (Germany), M. Raupach (Australia), P. Rayner (France), G. Rehder (Germany), U. Riebesell (Germany), C. Rodenbeck (Germany), L. Rotstayn (Australia), N. Roulet (Canada), C. Sabine (USA), M.G. Schultz (Germany), M. Schulz (France, Germany), S.E. Schwartz (USA), W. Steffen (Australia), D. Stevenson (UK), Y. Tian (USA, China), K.E. Trenberth (USA), T. Van Noije (Netherlands), O. Wild (Japan, UK), T. Zhang (USA, China), L. Zhou (USA, China) Review Editors: Kansri Boonpragob (Thailand), Martin Heimann (Germany, Switzerland), Mario Molina (USA, Mexico) This chapter should be cited as: Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U. Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

Changes in agricultural management can potentially increase the accumulation rate of soil organic C (SOC), thereby sequestering CO 2 from the atmosphere. This study was conducted to quantify potential soil C sequestration rates for different crops in response to decreasing tillage intensity or enhancing rotation complexity, and to estimate the duration of time over which sequestration may occur. Analyses of C sequestration rates were completed using a global database of 67 long-term agricultural experiments, consisting of 276 paired treatments. Results indicate, on average, that a change from conventional tillage (CT) to no-till (NT) can sequester 57 ± 14 g C m -2 yr -1 , excluding wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow systems which may not result in SOC accumulation with a change from CT to NT. Enhancing rotation complexity can sequester an average 20 ± 12 g C m -2 yr -1 , excluding a change from continuous corn (Zea mays L.) to corn-soybean (Glycine max L.) which may not result in a significant accumulation of SOC. Carbon sequestration rates, with a change from CT to NT, can be expected to peak in 5 to 10 yr with SOC reaching a new equilibrium in 15 to 20 yr. Following initiation of an enhancement in rotation complexity, SOC may reach a new equilibrium in approximately 40 to 60 yr. Carbon sequestration rates, estimated for a number of individual crops and crop rotations in this study, can be used in spatial modeling analyses to more accurately predict regional, national, and global C sequestration potentials.

Soil organic carbon sequestration rates by tillage and crop rotation : A global data analysis

This report is FAO's latest assessment of the long-term outlook for the world's food supplies, nutrition and agriculture. It presents the projections and the main messages. The projections cover supply and demand for the major agricultural commodities and sectors, including fisheries and forestry. This analysis forms the basis for a more detailed examination of other factors, such as nutrition and undernourishment, and the implications for international trade. The report also investigates the implications of future supply and demand for the natural resource base and discusses how technology can contribute to more sustainable development.

One of the report's main findings is that, if no corrective action is taken, the target set by the World Food Summit in 1996 (that of halving the number of undernourished people by 2015) is not going to be met. Nothing short of a massive effort at improving the overall development performance will free the developing world of its most pressing food insecurity problems. The progress made towards this target depends on many factors, not least of which are political will and the mobilization of additional resources. Past experience underlines the crucial role of agriculture in the development process, particularly where the majority of the population still depends on this sector for employment and income.

World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030: An Fao Perspective

. Agricultural soils, having been depleted of much of their native carbon stocks, have a significant CO2 sink capacity. Global estimates of this sink capacity are in the order of 20-30 Pg C over the next 50-100 years. Management practices to build up soil C must increase the input of organic matter to soil and/or decrease soil organic matter decomposition rates. The most appropriate management practices to increase soil C vary regionally, dependent on both environmental and socioeconomic factors.

In temperate regions, key strategies involve increasing cropping frequency and reducing bare fallow, increasing the use of perennial forages (including N-fixing species) in crop rotations, retaining crop residues and reducing or eliminating tillage (i.e. no-till). In North America and Europe, conversion of marginal arable land to permanent perennial vegetation, to protect fragile soils and landscapes and/or reduce agricultural surpluses, provides additional opportunities for C sequestration.

In the tropics, increasing C inputs to soil through improving the fertility and productivity of cropland and pastures is essential. In extensive systems with vegetated fallow periods (e.g. shifting cultivation), planted fallows and cover crops can increase C levels over the cropping cycle. Use of no-till, green manures and agroforestry are other beneficial practices. Overall, improving the productivity and sustainability of existing agricultural lands is crucial to help reduce the rate of new land clearing, from which large amounts of CO2 from biomass and soil are emitted to the atmosphere.

Some regional analyses of soil C sequestration and sequestration potential have been performed, mainly for temperate industrialized countries. More are needed, especially for the tropics, to capture region-specific interactions between climate, soil and management resources that are lost in global level assessments.

By itself, C sequestration in agricultural soils can make only modest contributions (e.g. 3-6% of total fossil C emissions) to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, effective mitigation policies will not be based on any single ‘magic bullet’ solutions, but rather on many modest reductions which are economically efficient and which confer additional benefits to society. In this context, soil C sequestration is a significant mitigation option. Additional advantages of pursuing strategies to increase soil C are the added benefits of improved soil quality for improving agricultural productivity and sustainability.

M van Noordwijk

Papers

Agricultural soils as a sink to mitigate CO2 emissions

Agricultural options for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions

5.6 Emissions and uptake of CO2 by soil from land use change and management: Chapter 5. Land use change and forestry