世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

A Treatise on the Family

25. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. By D. B. Rubin. ISBN 0 471 08705 X. Wiley, Chichester, 1987. 258 pp. £30.25.

Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys

Reference TRANSP-OR-CONF-2006-048 URL: http://transp-or.epfl.ch/documents/proceedings/Bier03.pdf URL: http://www.strc.ch/Paper/bierlaire.pdf Record created on 2008-02-15, modified on 2017-12-15

/pdf/biogeme-a-free-package-for-the-estimation-of-discrete-choice-4of5ngiap6.pdf

BIOGEME: a free package for the estimation of discrete choice models

Manufacturing industry profoundly impact economic and societal progress. As being a commonly accepted term for research centers and universities, the Industry 4.0 initiative has received a splendid attention of the business and research community. Although the idea is not new and was on the agenda of academic research in many years with different perceptions, the term “Industry 4.0” is just launched and well accepted to some extend not only in academic life but also in the industrial society as well. While academic research focuses on understanding and defining the concept and trying to develop related systems, business models and respective methodologies, industry, on the other hand, focuses its attention on the change of industrial machine suits and intelligent products as well as potential customers on this progress. It is therefore important for the companies to primarily understand the features and content of the Industry 4.0 for potential transformation from machine dominant manufacturing to digital manufacturing. In order to achieve a successful transformation, they should clearly review their positions and respective potentials against basic requirements set forward for Industry 4.0 standard. This will allow them to generate a well-defined road map. There has been several approaches and discussions going on along this line, a several road maps are already proposed. Some of those are reviewed in this paper. However, the literature clearly indicates the lack of respective assessment methodologies. Since the implementation and applications of related theorems and definitions outlined for the 4th industrial revolution is not mature enough for most of the reel life implementations, a systematic approach for making respective assessments and evaluations seems to be urgently required for those who are intending to speed this transformation up. It is now main responsibility of the research community to developed technological infrastructure with physical systems, management models, business models as well as some well-defined Industry 4.0 scenarios in order to make the life for the practitioners easy. It is estimated by the experts that the Industry 4.0 and related progress along this line will have an enormous effect on social life. As outlined in the introduction, some social transformation is also expected. It is assumed that the robots will be more dominant in manufacturing, implanted technologies, cooperating and coordinating machines, self-decision-making systems, autonom problem solvers, learning machines, 3D printing etc. will dominate the production process. Wearable internet, big data analysis, sensor based life, smart city implementations or similar applications will be the main concern of the community. This social transformation will naturally trigger the manufacturing society to improve their manufacturing suits to cope with the customer requirements and sustain competitive advantage. A summary of the potential progress along this line is reviewed in introduction of the paper. It is so obvious that the future manufacturing systems will have a different vision composed of products, intelligence, communications and information network. This will bring about new business models to be dominant in industrial life. Another important issue to take into account is that the time span of this so-called revolution will be so short triggering a continues transformation process to yield some new industrial areas to emerge. This clearly puts a big pressure on manufacturers to learn, understand, design and implement the transformation process. Since the main motivation for finding the best way to follow this transformation, a comprehensive literature review will generate a remarkable support. This paper presents such a review for highlighting the progress and aims to help improve the awareness on the best experiences. It is intended to provide a clear idea for those wishing to generate a road map for digitizing the respective manufacturing suits. By presenting this review it is also intended to provide a hands-on library of Industry 4.0 to both academics as well as industrial practitioners. The top 100 headings, abstracts and key words (i.e. a total of 619 publications of any kind) for each search term were independently analyzed in order to ensure the reliability of the review process. Note that, this exhaustive literature review provides a concrete definition of Industry 4.0 and defines its six design principles such as interoperability, virtualization, local, real-time talent, service orientation and modularity. It seems that these principles have taken the attention of the scientists to carry out more variety of research on the subject and to develop implementable and appropriate scenarios. A comprehensive taxonomy of Industry 4.0 can also be developed through analyzing the results of this review.

Literature review of Industry 4.0 and related technologies

Discrete choice models with error structures that are not independent and identically distributed have received enormous attention in the recent literature. A detailed synthetic study tests this type of model in a controlled case. With mixed logit and probit models as the study objects, calibration was implemented with the use of software available on the Internet. The controlled situation was built as a simulation laboratory, which generated databases with known parameters. The effects of various elements were analyzed: number of repetitions of the simulation, number of observations in the database, and how the use of Halton sequences improves the mixed logit calibration. The scale effects on the different models are also discussed. The results obtained in this specific context lead to some recommendations for future users of these powerful modeling tools. In particular, flexible structures require large sample sizes to calibrate the elements of the covariance matrix.

Testing Mixed Logit and Probit Models by Simulation

Joint estimation is called for in the common framework shared by activity and travel models In literature, attention has only recently been given to this complex problem Various components of time's subjective value (value of assigning time to travel, resource value, and travel time savings) have been allowed to be disentangled after obtaining travel choice and activity duration explicit equations The only reported results have been preliminary results assuming independence, although expectation of some interrelation between equations is natural The authors postulate a general error structure and adapt a discrete/continuous econometric model The authors obtain more robust models, and significantly different and more credible value of time estimates

/pdf/valuing-time-with-a-joint-mode-choice-activity-model-3io66iadkq.pdf

Valuing Time With a Joint Mode Choice-Activity Model

The development of transport demand modelling can be described as a search of flexible models adapting to a greater number of practical situations. However, this search has been characterised by a flexibility-estimability trade off. In one hand, there are the traditional models of the Logit family that offer closed choice probabilities, but with restrictive assumptions that not always are properly justified. On the other hand, the Probit model allows to work with an error structure general in principle, but its estimation is quite complex and subject to identificatio n restrictions. In this context, in addition by technological advances in term of computer's power and numerical methods, the use of simplified models has been questioned and it has appeared with force a new alternative of modelling: the Mixed Logit model. In this paper we study both theoretically and empirically the antecedents that sustain the formulation of Mixed Logit model. Through an analysis of the covariance matrix we discuss how these models are able to model conditions in which independence and homoscedasticity are violated. This analysis is complemented with two numerical applications that allow to verify the real possibility of using this model and its capacity to adapt to practical situations. In the simulation experiments data bases are constructed so that it allows to objectively control the goodness of fit of the model, the reproduction of the calibration sample and the level of answer to changes in the attributes of the alternatives. The application with real data tries to validate the empirical study and to verify the feasibility to apply sophisticated econometric tools. Although its estimation requires simulation, it is observed that in general the model gives to a suitable reproduction of parameters and a good adjustment to the changes of policy. We conclude that Mixed Logit models constitute an interesting and powerful alternative for discrete choice modelling. Nevertheless, as in the case of any flexible model, it is necessary to be rigorous in the construction and implementation of a particular specification, justifying suitably the any assumption done and knowing clearly its consequences previous to the estimation of the parameters.

https://www.cec.uchile.cl/~dicidet/mmunizaga/mixed_logit.pdf

Marcela Munizaga

Papers

Testing Mixed Logit and Probit Models by Simulation

Valuing Time With a Joint Mode Choice-Activity Model

Draft mixed logit vs. nested logit and probit models

Modeling bus bunching using massive location and fare collection data

Estimating the residence zone of frequent public transport users to make travel pattern and time use analysis