世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

A Treatise on the Family

25. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. By D. B. Rubin. ISBN 0 471 08705 X. Wiley, Chichester, 1987. 258 pp. £30.25.

Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys

Reference TRANSP-OR-CONF-2006-048 URL: http://transp-or.epfl.ch/documents/proceedings/Bier03.pdf URL: http://www.strc.ch/Paper/bierlaire.pdf Record created on 2008-02-15, modified on 2017-12-15

/pdf/biogeme-a-free-package-for-the-estimation-of-discrete-choice-4of5ngiap6.pdf

BIOGEME: a free package for the estimation of discrete choice models

Manufacturing industry profoundly impact economic and societal progress. As being a commonly accepted term for research centers and universities, the Industry 4.0 initiative has received a splendid attention of the business and research community. Although the idea is not new and was on the agenda of academic research in many years with different perceptions, the term “Industry 4.0” is just launched and well accepted to some extend not only in academic life but also in the industrial society as well. While academic research focuses on understanding and defining the concept and trying to develop related systems, business models and respective methodologies, industry, on the other hand, focuses its attention on the change of industrial machine suits and intelligent products as well as potential customers on this progress. It is therefore important for the companies to primarily understand the features and content of the Industry 4.0 for potential transformation from machine dominant manufacturing to digital manufacturing. In order to achieve a successful transformation, they should clearly review their positions and respective potentials against basic requirements set forward for Industry 4.0 standard. This will allow them to generate a well-defined road map. There has been several approaches and discussions going on along this line, a several road maps are already proposed. Some of those are reviewed in this paper. However, the literature clearly indicates the lack of respective assessment methodologies. Since the implementation and applications of related theorems and definitions outlined for the 4th industrial revolution is not mature enough for most of the reel life implementations, a systematic approach for making respective assessments and evaluations seems to be urgently required for those who are intending to speed this transformation up. It is now main responsibility of the research community to developed technological infrastructure with physical systems, management models, business models as well as some well-defined Industry 4.0 scenarios in order to make the life for the practitioners easy. It is estimated by the experts that the Industry 4.0 and related progress along this line will have an enormous effect on social life. As outlined in the introduction, some social transformation is also expected. It is assumed that the robots will be more dominant in manufacturing, implanted technologies, cooperating and coordinating machines, self-decision-making systems, autonom problem solvers, learning machines, 3D printing etc. will dominate the production process. Wearable internet, big data analysis, sensor based life, smart city implementations or similar applications will be the main concern of the community. This social transformation will naturally trigger the manufacturing society to improve their manufacturing suits to cope with the customer requirements and sustain competitive advantage. A summary of the potential progress along this line is reviewed in introduction of the paper. It is so obvious that the future manufacturing systems will have a different vision composed of products, intelligence, communications and information network. This will bring about new business models to be dominant in industrial life. Another important issue to take into account is that the time span of this so-called revolution will be so short triggering a continues transformation process to yield some new industrial areas to emerge. This clearly puts a big pressure on manufacturers to learn, understand, design and implement the transformation process. Since the main motivation for finding the best way to follow this transformation, a comprehensive literature review will generate a remarkable support. This paper presents such a review for highlighting the progress and aims to help improve the awareness on the best experiences. It is intended to provide a clear idea for those wishing to generate a road map for digitizing the respective manufacturing suits. By presenting this review it is also intended to provide a hands-on library of Industry 4.0 to both academics as well as industrial practitioners. The top 100 headings, abstracts and key words (i.e. a total of 619 publications of any kind) for each search term were independently analyzed in order to ensure the reliability of the review process. Note that, this exhaustive literature review provides a concrete definition of Industry 4.0 and defines its six design principles such as interoperability, virtualization, local, real-time talent, service orientation and modularity. It seems that these principles have taken the attention of the scientists to carry out more variety of research on the subject and to develop implementable and appropriate scenarios. A comprehensive taxonomy of Industry 4.0 can also be developed through analyzing the results of this review.

Literature review of Industry 4.0 and related technologies

Commercial bus speed is a key factor in the operation of public transport systems because it represents a direct measure of the quality of service provided to users and also considerably affects system costs. By commercial speed, we are referring to the average speed of buses over stretches, including all operational stops. Evaluating system performance by monitoring the commercial speed provided by bus services is highly desirable; however, in dense networks, it becomes a difficult task because of the amount of information required to implement such a monitoring procedure. The introduction of GPS technology in buses can overcome this difficulty in terms of information availability, although it presents the challenge of processing huge amounts of data in a systematic way. Here, we present a method based on GPS-generated data to systematically monitor average commercial bus speeds. The framework can be applied to each bus route as a whole, as well as over segments of arbitrary length, and can be divided into time intervals of arbitrary duration. The results are presented as matrices and graphs that can be read and interpreted easily. We discuss the potential of this methodology to provide useful insights for bus system planners and operators. The method and its applications are illustrated with data coming from the Santiago–Chile public transport system (Transantiago), where GPS observations of more than 6000 buses operating on over 700 different routes are available every 30 s.

Commercial bus speed diagnosis based on gps-monitored data

The Multinomial Logit, discrete choice model of transport demand, has several restrictions when compared with the more general Multinomial Probit model. The most famous of these are that unobservable components of utilities should be mutually independent and homoskedastic. Correlation can be accommodated to a certain extent by the Hierarchical Logit model, but the problem of heteroskedasticity has received less attention in the literature. We investigate the consequences of disregarding heteroskedasticity, and make some comparisons between models that can and those that cannot represent it. These comparisons, which use synthetic data with known characteristics, are made in terms of parameter recovery and estimates of response to policy changes. The Multinomial Logit, Hierarchical Logit, Single Element Nested Logit, Heteroskedastic Extreme Value Logit and Multinomial Probit models are tested using data that are consistent with various error structures; only the last three can represent heteroskedasticity explicitly. Two different kinds of heteroskedasticity are analysed: between options and between observations. The results show that in the first case, neither the Multinomial Logit nor the Single Element Nested Logit models can be used to estimate the response to policy changes accurately, but the Hierarchical Logit model performs surprisingly well. By contrast, in a certain case of discrete heteroskedasticity between observations, the simulation results show that in terms of response to policy variations the Multinomial Logit model performs as well as the theoretically correct Single Element Nested Logit and Multinomial Probit models. Furthermore, the Multinomial Logit Model recovered all parameters of the utility function accurately in this case. We conclude that the simpler members of the Logit family appear to be fairly robust with respect to some homoskedasticity violations, but that use of the more resource-intensive Multinomial Probit model is justified for handling the case of heteroskedasticity between options.

/pdf/representation-of-heteroskedasticity-in-discrete-choice-pa8fz2wwg9.pdf

Representation of heteroskedasticity in discrete choice models

Results from a mobility survey from Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic show a decrease of 44% of trips in Santiago, with metro (55%), ride-hailing (51%), and bus (45%) presenting the highest reduction. Modes with the lowest reduction are motorcycle (28%), auto (34%), and walking (39%). While 77% of workers from low-income households had to go out and work, 80% of workers from high-income households worked from home. Other important factors that correlate with teleworking are gender, educational level, employment status, and occupation. Regarding the number of trips for purposes other than work, significant factors are gender, age, and employment status.

/pdf/mobility-changes-teleworking-and-remote-communication-during-zzeblto3dr.pdf

Mobility Changes, Teleworking, and Remote Communication during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chile

Using smart card and GPS data for policy and planning: The case of Transantiago

Identifying the set of available alternatives in a choice process after considering an individual’s bounds or thresholds is a complex process that, in practice, is commonly simplified by assuming exogenous rules in the choice set formation. The Constrained Multinomial Logit (CMNL) model incorporates thresholds in several attributes as a key endogenous process to define the alternatives choice/rejection mechanism. The model allows for the inclusion of multiple constraints and has a closed form. In this paper, we study the estimation of the CMNL model using the maximum likelihood function, develop a methodology to estimate the model overcoming identification problems by an endogenous partition of the sample, and test the model estimation with both synthetic and real data. The CMNL model appears to be suitable for general applications as it presents a significantly better fit than the MNL model under constrained behaviour and replicates the MNL estimates in the unconstrained case. Using mode choice real data, we found significant differences in the values of times and elasticities between compensatory MNL and semi-compensatory CMNL models, which increase as the thresholds on attributes become active.

/pdf/estimation-of-a-constrained-multinomial-logit-model-3k31gu8w14.pdf

Marcela Munizaga

Papers

Commercial bus speed diagnosis based on gps-monitored data

Representation of heteroskedasticity in discrete choice models

Mobility Changes, Teleworking, and Remote Communication during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chile

Using smart card and GPS data for policy and planning: The case of Transantiago

Estimation of a constrained multinomial logit model