世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

A Treatise on the Family

25. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. By D. B. Rubin. ISBN 0 471 08705 X. Wiley, Chichester, 1987. 258 pp. £30.25.

Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys

Reference TRANSP-OR-CONF-2006-048 URL: http://transp-or.epfl.ch/documents/proceedings/Bier03.pdf URL: http://www.strc.ch/Paper/bierlaire.pdf Record created on 2008-02-15, modified on 2017-12-15

/pdf/biogeme-a-free-package-for-the-estimation-of-discrete-choice-4of5ngiap6.pdf

BIOGEME: a free package for the estimation of discrete choice models

Manufacturing industry profoundly impact economic and societal progress. As being a commonly accepted term for research centers and universities, the Industry 4.0 initiative has received a splendid attention of the business and research community. Although the idea is not new and was on the agenda of academic research in many years with different perceptions, the term “Industry 4.0” is just launched and well accepted to some extend not only in academic life but also in the industrial society as well. While academic research focuses on understanding and defining the concept and trying to develop related systems, business models and respective methodologies, industry, on the other hand, focuses its attention on the change of industrial machine suits and intelligent products as well as potential customers on this progress. It is therefore important for the companies to primarily understand the features and content of the Industry 4.0 for potential transformation from machine dominant manufacturing to digital manufacturing. In order to achieve a successful transformation, they should clearly review their positions and respective potentials against basic requirements set forward for Industry 4.0 standard. This will allow them to generate a well-defined road map. There has been several approaches and discussions going on along this line, a several road maps are already proposed. Some of those are reviewed in this paper. However, the literature clearly indicates the lack of respective assessment methodologies. Since the implementation and applications of related theorems and definitions outlined for the 4th industrial revolution is not mature enough for most of the reel life implementations, a systematic approach for making respective assessments and evaluations seems to be urgently required for those who are intending to speed this transformation up. It is now main responsibility of the research community to developed technological infrastructure with physical systems, management models, business models as well as some well-defined Industry 4.0 scenarios in order to make the life for the practitioners easy. It is estimated by the experts that the Industry 4.0 and related progress along this line will have an enormous effect on social life. As outlined in the introduction, some social transformation is also expected. It is assumed that the robots will be more dominant in manufacturing, implanted technologies, cooperating and coordinating machines, self-decision-making systems, autonom problem solvers, learning machines, 3D printing etc. will dominate the production process. Wearable internet, big data analysis, sensor based life, smart city implementations or similar applications will be the main concern of the community. This social transformation will naturally trigger the manufacturing society to improve their manufacturing suits to cope with the customer requirements and sustain competitive advantage. A summary of the potential progress along this line is reviewed in introduction of the paper. It is so obvious that the future manufacturing systems will have a different vision composed of products, intelligence, communications and information network. This will bring about new business models to be dominant in industrial life. Another important issue to take into account is that the time span of this so-called revolution will be so short triggering a continues transformation process to yield some new industrial areas to emerge. This clearly puts a big pressure on manufacturers to learn, understand, design and implement the transformation process. Since the main motivation for finding the best way to follow this transformation, a comprehensive literature review will generate a remarkable support. This paper presents such a review for highlighting the progress and aims to help improve the awareness on the best experiences. It is intended to provide a clear idea for those wishing to generate a road map for digitizing the respective manufacturing suits. By presenting this review it is also intended to provide a hands-on library of Industry 4.0 to both academics as well as industrial practitioners. The top 100 headings, abstracts and key words (i.e. a total of 619 publications of any kind) for each search term were independently analyzed in order to ensure the reliability of the review process. Note that, this exhaustive literature review provides a concrete definition of Industry 4.0 and defines its six design principles such as interoperability, virtualization, local, real-time talent, service orientation and modularity. It seems that these principles have taken the attention of the scientists to carry out more variety of research on the subject and to develop implementable and appropriate scenarios. A comprehensive taxonomy of Industry 4.0 can also be developed through analyzing the results of this review.

Literature review of Industry 4.0 and related technologies

Workshop 5 report: Harnessing big data

Governments around the globe have taken different measures to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic The city of Santiago, Chile, followed a dynamic lockdown strategy in which its municipalities were temporarily restricted depending on the degree of advance of the pandemic We use this variation over time to study the effect of lockdowns on public transport demand, by analysing a 2019-2020 database of smartcard data of trips These data allow us to identify public transport trips at a bus stop level,accounting for the variation of municipalities that were under lockdown in a given day Metro and buses are analysed as individual modes and combined, allowing to estimate mode-specific factors Using an empirical strategy that controls for timely variations, we find that dynamic lockdowns reduced public transport demand for all the public transport modes, but the average effect was larger for buses, which may be explained in part by fare evasion for this mode of transport and/or socioeconomic differences on mode usage We also find that this effect varies over time After the fifth week of the application of the lockdowns, its effect starts slowly vanishing, which suggests short-term effectiveness of such policy to reduce transport mobility in this case Regarding sociodemographic effects, we find that lockdowns have a stronger impact in reducing public transport demand in municipalities with a larger proportion of elderly populationand high-income households

The Effect of Dynamic Lockdowns on Public Transport Demand in Times of COVID-19: Evidence from Smartcard Data (preprint)

Emerging global positioning system (GPS) devices enable new opportunities for transportation engineers with new methods of traffic data collection. In addition to the fact that GPS devices can replace labor-intensive survey techniques, GPS devices also collect traffic information throughout the route which traditional fixed loop detectors cannot. With lowering cost and increasing sensitivity of the GPS devices, it has become economically feasible to deploy such devices on a massive number of vehicles. A public transit system in Santiago, Chile (Transantiago) installed GPS data loggers on over 6000 buses operating on over 700 different routes in Santiago. Each GPS unit collects its location and speed information every 30 seconds. Transit buses in general, experience a phenomenon known as "bunching" referring to a situation where a few consecutive buses are grouped with short time intervals between them resulting in higher passenger waiting times. In addition, if buses arrive at bus stops with varying headways, even if there is no significant bunching of consecutive buses, passenger waiting times can increase due to the variance of headways. This paper with the aid of massive GPS transit probes, first, monitors the distribution of headways throughout a route. Then, the transit-monitoring bunching indices are developed with respect to the expected passenger waiting time and are represented in a form of a 2-dimensional temporal-spatial graph. Finally, adherences with scheduled or desired headways are monitored. It is found that GPS devices in transit buses can effectively provide performance measures throughout the route on a daily basis.

Transit Performance Monitoring and Analysis with Massive GPS Bus Probes of Transantiago in Santiago, Chile: Emphasis on Development of Indices for Bunching and Schedule Adherence

This paper presents a general framework to estimate the bus user time benefits of a median busway including the effects on travel time and access time. Unlike previous models, we take into account the effects of geometry and the interaction with the demand structure. Models for predicting the bus in-vehicle time benefits of a median dual carriageway busway against mixed traffic condition on 2 and 3 lanes roads are estimated using data from a case study in Santiago (Chile), using a bus travel time model empirically estimated and considering different base case situations, including mixed traffic operations and bus lanes. Results of the application show that the expected in-vehicle time savings of a median busway might be reduced by access time losses due to increased walking distances and road crossing delays. Also, that net time benefits can vary significantly according to the base situation and the structure of demand considered. These findings point out to the need of including a wider set of impacts when studying the benefits of median busways, beyond in-vehicle time savings only. The empirical work presented here is completely based on passive data coming from GPS and smartcards, what makes easier and cheaper to conduct this type of analysis as well as to do it with a comprehensive scope at an early stage of the development of a BRT project. This framework can be extended to other types of dedicated bus lanes provided that a corresponding bus travel time savings model is available.

Estimating the bus user time benefits of implementing a median busway: Methodology and case study

This paper will use a consumer’s behavior microeconomic framework to derive a complete set of equations formed by time assigned to work (labor supply), time assigned to all discretionary activities, consumption of unrestricted goods and discrete travel choices. It is shown that from this the values of leisure, work and time assigned to travel can be estimated. A synthesis of the empirical experience is presented and the options of the analyst are shown, namely to estimate a subset of equations depending on the available information.

Marcela Munizaga

Papers

Workshop 5 report: Harnessing big data

The Effect of Dynamic Lockdowns on Public Transport Demand in Times of COVID-19: Evidence from Smartcard Data (preprint)

Transit Performance Monitoring and Analysis with Massive GPS Bus Probes of Transantiago in Santiago, Chile: Emphasis on Development of Indices for Bunching and Schedule Adherence

Estimating the bus user time benefits of implementing a median busway: Methodology and case study

The Unified Expanded Goods-Activities-Travel Model: Theory And Results