Manifestations and underlying drivers of agricultural land use change in Europe

The driving forces of landscape change in Europe: a systematic review of the evidence

Farmland abandonment in Europe is a major problem because of environmental, socioeconomic and landscape implications. In this paper, a general view of the extent of abandoned land, the stages of abandonment and the drivers that manage this process in Europe is presented. A scientific literature review shows an abandonment at the beginning of the 19th century, although the largest abandonment in terms of area took place in the mid-20th century. This abandonment had a far greater impact on mountain areas because of rural depopulation as well as biophysical constraints. Since the last decades of the 20th century, abandonment driven by the CAP in European Member States and by the end of the communist regime in Central and Eastern Europe has been taking place. This abandonment affects peripheral marginal areas due to biophysical or socioeconomic conditions. Semi-arid areas in Southern Europe have also seen an important extent of abandoned land over the last few decades. The literature draws on the ongoing abandonment from the following decades, and 3–4% of current farmland is considered to be affected. It is noted that, among the drivers, external factors (migration, socioeconomic model, public policies, etc.) act as enhancers that emphasize land abandonment. However, internal causes (agro-ecological and socioeconomic factors and also the features of agricultural holdings) control the dynamics and the extent of this phenomenon. The international literature about land abandonment in Europe is vast, and most of the specialized production is devoted to the effects of land abandonment, while few works determine the extent, stages and drivers of land abandonment. Finally, it is necessary to review the grey literature to obtain more quantitative information on the amount of abandoned land in Europe.

Space-time process and drivers of land abandonment in Europe.

To date land-change science has devoted little attention to spatial policy and planning in urban landscapes despite the widely accepted premise that planning affects urban land change. This is primarily due to lack of relevant data and an underdeveloped theoretical understanding regarding the impact of spatial planning on urban land change. To be able to better analyse the role of spatial planning in urban development we need to distinguish: 1) the intentions expressed in the plans; 2) the means of implementation of the plans through governance processes and 3) the role of external conditions influencing implementation. Based on a synthesis of the current literature on how spatial planning is implemented in land-change models, and drawing from the literature on planning evaluation, we sketch a research agenda to further develop the understanding of these three components and their interconnections as well as their application in quantitative land-change modelling approaches for urban regions.

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Urban land-use change: the role of strategic spatial planning

Research into land and social-ecological systems science could benefit from improved clarity in the terminology used for causal analysis and a structured way to make causal inferences. Here I identify two aspects of causality, i.e. causal effects and causal mechanisms, and discuss explanation in historical sciences. I then propose definitions for the major terms used for causal relations, including driver, (spatial) determinant, location and contextual factor, proximate and underlying factors. Finally, I discuss the contribution of various operational approaches, including time series and counterfactual approaches for assessing causal effects and process-tracing approaches for establishing causal mechanisms. Having a coherent concept of causality, agreeing on a precise vocabulary and harnessing our tools with the clear purpose of establishing both causal effects and causal mechanisms should strengthen causal explanations for single cases, for drawing policy-relevant lessons and for theoretical dev...

Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science

Models in land change research are often chosen arbitrarily based on practical rather than theoretical considerations. More specifically, research on land change is often based on a research framework with three crucial elements - driving forces, actors, and land change - in an ad hoc and case- specific configuration. The lack of solid and widely applicable concepts about the conceptual link between these three elements can negatively affect individual research projects and hamper communication and generalizations beyond the individual project. We present four basic models for linking land change with driving forces and actors. These models are illustrated with examples from the research literature. Based on the main characteristics of the models and practical considerations, we propose guidelines for choosing among the four models for specific studies. More generally, we want to raise awareness that land change research is especially demanding with respect to conceptual backgrounds and that conceptual considerations will help improve the scientific quality of individual studies as well as their potential contribution towards generic theories of land change.

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Maria Pia Gennaio

Papers

Linking Land Change with Driving Forces and Actors: Four Conceptual Models