Showing papers by "Marianne Page published in 2000"

Examining the link between teacher wages and student outcomes: The importance of alternative labor market opportunities and non-pecuniary variation

Abstract: Researchers using cross-sectional data have failed to produce systematic evidence that teacher salaries affect student outcomes. These studies generally do not account for non-pecuniary job attribu...

Correlations between Neighboring Children in Their Subsequent Educational Attainment

Abstract: This study proposes using correlations between neighboring children in their later socioeconomic status to bound the proportion of inequality in socioeconomic outcomes that can be attributed to dis...

School Choice and the Distributional Effects of Ability Tracking: Does Separation Increase Equality?

Abstract: Tracking programs have been criticized on the grounds that they harm disadvantaged children The bulk of empirical research supports this view These studies are conducted by comparing outcomes for across students placed in different tracks Track placement, however, is likely to be endogenous with respect to outcomes We use a new strategy for overcoming the endogeneity of track placement and find no evidence that tracking hurts low-ability children We also demonstrate that tracking programs help schools attract more affluent students Previous studies have been based on the assumption that students' enrollment decisions are unrelated to whether or not the school tracks When we take school choice into account, we find evidence that low-ability children may be helped by tracking programs

School Choice and the Distributional Effects of Ability Tracking: Does Separation Increase Equality?

Abstract: Tracking programs have been criticized on the grounds that they harm disadvantaged children. The bulk of empirical research supports this view. These studies are conducted by comparing outcomes for across students placed in different tracks. Track placement, however, is likely to be endogenous with respect to outcomes. We use a new strategy for overcoming the endogeneity of track placement and find no evidence that tracking hurts low-ability children. We also demonstrate that tracking programs help schools attract more affluent students. Previous studies have been based on the assumption that students' enrollment decisions are unrelated to whether or not the school tracks. When we take school choice into account, we find evidence that low-ability children may be helped by tracking programs.

To what Extent do Fiscal Regimes Equalize Opportunities for Income Acquisition Among citizens

Abstract: This project employs the theory of equality of opportunity, described in Roemer's book (Equality of Opportunity, Harvard University Press, 1998), to compute the extent to which tax-and-transfer regimes in ten countries equalize opportunities among citizens for income acquisition. Roughly speaking, equality of opportunity for incomes has been achieved in a country when it is the case that the distributions of post-fisc income are the same for different types of citizen, where a citizen's type is defined by the socioeconomic status of his parents. Intuitively, a country will have equalized opportunity if the chances of earning high (or low) income are equal for citizens from all family backgrounds. Of course, pre-fisc income distributions, by type, will not be identical, as long as the educational system does not entirely make up for the disadvantage that children, who come from poor families face, but the tax-and-transfer system can play a role in rectifying that inequality. We include, in our computation, two numbers that summarize the extent to which each country's current fiscal regime achieves equalization of opportunities for income, and the deadweight loss that would be incurred by moving to the regime that does.

Does the Minimum Wage Affect Welfare Caseloads

Abstract: The degree to which minimum wages affect employment has been of interest to economists and policy makers for many years. This interest has stemmed largely from a potential inconsistency between the intent of minimum wage laws and their theoretical effects: the goal of minimum wages is to improve individuals' abilities to support their families and avoid welfare but the textbook model of supply and demand predicts that such wage gains come at the expense of lower employment levels. In order for minimum wages to improve the well-being of families overall, the demand curve for low-skilled workers must be relatively inelastic. Most of the empirical research on minimum wages has focused on the relationship between minimum wage increases and employment rates, especially among teenagers. To date there have been no studies that estimate the impact of minimum wage legislation on potential welfare recipients, but recent passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) intensifies the need to understand the relationship between work and welfare. In this study, we use variation in minimum wages across states and over time to identify their effect on the size of the state welfare caseload. Our empirical results indicate that, once state trends and a variety of other factors are accounted for, the elasticity of the welfare caseload with respect to the minimum wage is between 0.1 and 0.2. In other words, a 35 percent increase in the minimum wage like that recently implemented in California could lead to a 3 to 7 percent increase in the size of the welfare caseload, holding all else equal. These results are remarkably stable to the inclusion of other variables that influence the evolution of caseloads over time, such as state-specific welfare reforms and changing political preferences. Our estimates suggest that minimum wages are not an efficient means of improving the financial independence of low-skilled single mothers, since the wage gains experienced by those who keep their jobs are counteracted by an increase in the welfare rolls. Policies like the Earned Income Tax Credit, which increases wages through the tax code without depressing the demand for low-skill labor, are likely to be more effective in facilitating the transition from welfare to work. This policy conclusion comes with a number of caveats. First, if minimum wages are increased in response to rising caseloads or poor economic conditions, then our policy variable will be endogenous and our estimates biased upward. We have tried to eliminate potential omitted variables bias by including as many control variables as possible, but if these controls are not complete then our study will be subject to the same criticism as the studies of minimum wage effects on teenage employment. Second, it is important to remember that research on the impact of minimum wages on teenage employment are all over the map, and that these estimates vary according to the data years analyzed, the source of the identifying variation, and the empirical strategies used to eliminate fixed effects. We have considered a number of alternative specifications in our analysis, but as in the employment literature, an alternative approach may yield different results.

The Food Stamp Program in an Era of Welfare Reform: Discussion

Abstract: tion. Second, the program's broad availability, together with the fact that it provides food rather than cash, makes it less politically contentious than other programs. In my opinion, however, the universal availability of Food Stamps should make us even more interested in understanding how they work. With the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act's (PRWORA's) tightening of eligibility restrictions and the end of entitlement to other welfare programs, Food Stamps may become a more important source of aid for many families. The papers presented in this session are among the first to investigate the dynamics of the Food Stamp program in the context of welfare reform. Each of these papers is thought provoking. As a discussant, my job is to highlight the most important aspects of the papers and provide some suggestions for their improvement. Let me begin with the paper by Figlio, Gundersen, and Ziliak. The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the extent to which the recent decline in the Food Stamp caseload can be attributed to state adoption of welfare waivers versus economic expansion. Estimates of the relationship between welfare waivers and caseload size give us a sense of what PRWORA's effect on the number of fam-