世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

NUDGE: IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein Penguin Books, 2009, 312 pp, ISBN 978-0-14-311526-7This book is best described formally as a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications. Informally, it is about how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society. It is paternalism in the sense that "it is legitimate for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior in order to make their lives longer, healthier, and better", (p. 5) It is libertarian in that "people should be free to do what they like - and to opt out of undesirable arrangements if they want to do so", (p. 5) The built-in possibility of opting out or making a different choice preserves freedom of choice even though people's behavior has been influenced by the nature of the presentation of the information or by the structure of the decisionmaking system. I had never heard of libertarian paternalism before reading this book, and I now find it fascinating.Written for a general audience, this book contains mostly social and behavioral science theory and models, but there is considerable discussion of structure and process that has roots in mathematical and quantitative modeling. One of the main applications of this social system is economic choice in investing, selecting and purchasing products and services, systems of taxes, banking (mortgages, borrowing, savings), and retirement systems. Other quantitative social choice systems discussed include environmental effects, health care plans, gambling, and organ donations. Softer issues that are also subject to a nudge-based approach are marriage, education, eating, drinking, smoking, influence, spread of information, and politics. There is something in this book for everyone.The basis for this libertarian paternalism concept is in the social theory called "science of choice", the study of the design and implementation of influence systems on various kinds of people. The terms Econs and Humans, are used to refer to people with either considerable or little rational decision-making talent, respectively. The various libertarian paternalism concepts and systems presented are tested and compared in light of these two types of people. Two foundational issues that this book has in common with another book, Network of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders, that was also reviewed for this issue of the Journal are that 1 ) there are two modes of thinking (or components of the brain) - an automatic (intuitive) process and a reflective (rational) process and 2) the need for conformity and the desire for imitation are powerful forces in human behavior. …

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers

Rotterdam is a big city in the Netherlands, characterized by an economic focus on its port and industry, and by the large share of migrants and blue-collar workers in its population. Every two years a survey is conducted on the Rotterdam population and they are asked a wide variety of questions, including a question on their happiness. In this paper, we use the data on happiness to answer the following questions: 1) How happy are people in Rotterdam? 2) How happy are Rotterdammers compared to people living in other places?
3) Has happiness in Rotterdam changed in the past decade? 4) Does happiness differ across districts in Rotterdam? 5) What drives the differences in happiness found between different Rotterdam districts? We find that inhabitants of Rotterdam are fairly happy on average, but somewhat less happy than people in other places in the Netherlands. Average happiness increased slightly between 1997 and 2009, varying with the economic tide. There are substantial differences in happiness across districts in Rotterdam, these are largely due to composition of the population. Rotterdam has attracted relatively many not too happy people, more of whom live in some districts than in others.

/pdf/happiness-in-rotterdam-analysis-of-7-city-surveys-2ihky1egn2.pdf

Happiness in Rotterdam: Analysis of 7 city surveys

Despite being on average a relatively happy country, Colombia has a high level of inequality in subjective well-being (SWB). Using Gallup World Poll data for the period from 2010 to 2018, this paper tests the direction and strength of association of a range of objective and subjective factors with SWB and explains differences in SWB across individuals and space. The perceived welfare of the average Colombian is mainly influenced by conditions and expectations related to economic opportunities and education. However, quantile regressions, reveal substantial differences in the domains that matter to those at the bottom and top of the experienced welfare distribution. Standard-of-living improvements, housing affordability, and civic engagement matter more to the most fortunate top 20%, while having education, a job, sufficient income, economic security, and digital connectivity are much more strongly associated with the well-being of the bottom 20%. The life domains that matter more to the unhappiest respondents also explain the majority of the spatial differences in perceived welfare between residents in urban and rural areas as well as core and peripheral regions. Policy actions aimed at closing the gaps in these areas have the potential to increase well-being and reduce inequality in Colombia.

/pdf/happy-but-unequal-differences-in-subjective-well-being-44p45gpihb.pdf

Happy but Unequal: Differences in Subjective Well-Being across Individuals and Space in Colombia.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.invent.2022.100494

For whom and under what circumstances does email message batching work?

The Happiness Indicator (www.happinessindicator.nl) is a website containing self-help tools designed to make people more aware of their own happiness. The theory behind the tools is that a keener awareness of one’s own happiness helps users find an optimal lifestyle and consequently promotes happiness among its users. Users of the website periodically record how happy they feel on the present day and how happy they have felt over the past month, using the Happiness Comparer. They also have the option of indicating in the Happiness Diary how happy they felt during the various activities of the previous day. Users receive instant feedback in the form of comparisons with their earlier scores and with the average scores of similar participants. In this chapter we assess the effect of using this tool on happiness considering the change in happiness among 5411 users who have participated at least twice. We found that using the Happiness Diary 10 times, results in an average increase in happiness of 2%. Repeated use of the Happiness Diary had a particularly strong effect for those who initially felt the least happy. Use of the Happiness Indicator may have prevented a decline in happiness among our participants, such as observed in the control-groups of 10 studies among self-selected participants in happiness trainings. If so, the net effect of using the Happiness Indicator was about 5%, which is quite substantial and comparable to the short-term effects of real-life events, such as the birth of a first child.

Effect on Happiness of Happiness Self-monitoring and Comparison with Others: Using the Happiness Indicator

Although a large number of studies have examined the relationship between the physical work environment and employee performance, the relationship between employee well-being and facility management (FM) has received limited attention. The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between FM services and employee well-being in terms of job satisfaction, satisfaction with the workplace, job affect and engagement within the context of the job demands-resources (JD-R) model, distinguishing between soft FM services and hard FM services.,The analysis is based on the responses of 1,390 employees, who responded to all the relevant items used in this analysis. In addition to the linear estimations, the research uses an instrumental variable (IV) estimation, the Lewbel IV estimator (Lewbel, 2012), to establish a causal relationship between FM services and employee well-being.,The findings of this paper suggest that there is a positive relationship between the FM index and the four well-being proxies. In addition, the findings indicate that the effect of soft FM on employee well-being is generally weaker than the effect of hard FM, especially with regard to job affect and engagement.,The current research treats FM services as a resource instead of a cost and goes beyond the financial value of FM by providing a quantitative analysis on the added value of FM services in terms of employee well-being. Most importantly, this study incorporates FM services in the JD-R model and uses an alternative approach to linear regression and traditional IV regression to solve for endogeneity issues.

Martijn Burger

Papers

Happiness in Rotterdam: Analysis of 7 city surveys

Happy but Unequal: Differences in Subjective Well-Being across Individuals and Space in Colombia.

For whom and under what circumstances does email message batching work?

Effect on Happiness of Happiness Self-monitoring and Comparison with Others: Using the Happiness Indicator

Facility management services and employee well-being