On the basis of data from brain network science, Bullmore and Sporns propose that brain organization is shaped by an economical trade-off between minimizing wiring cost and maximizing the efficiency of information transfer between neuronal populations and discuss this idea in the context of psychiatric and neurological disorders. The brain is expensive, incurring high material and metabolic costs for its size — relative to the size of the body — and many aspects of brain network organization can be mostly explained by a parsimonious drive to minimize these costs. However, brain networks or connectomes also have high topological efficiency, robustness, modularity and a 'rich club' of connector hubs. Many of these and other advantageous topological properties will probably entail a wiring-cost premium. We propose that brain organization is shaped by an economic trade-off between minimizing costs and allowing the emergence of adaptively valuable topological patterns of anatomical or functional connectivity between multiple neuronal populations. This process of negotiating, and re-negotiating, trade-offs between wiring cost and topological value continues over long (decades) and short (millisecond) timescales as brain networks evolve, grow and adapt to changing cognitive demands. An economical analysis of neuropsychiatric disorders highlights the vulnerability of the more costly elements of brain networks to pathological attack or abnormal development.

The economy of brain network organization

ECOLOGY/EVOLUTION: Phenotypic Plasticity

Vaccine efficacy (VE) estimates are crucial for assessing the suitability of dengue vaccine candidates for public health implementation, but efficacy trials are subject to a known bias to estimate VE toward the null if heterogeneous exposure is not accounted for in the analysis of trial data. In light of many well-characterized sources of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, our goal was to estimate the potential magnitude of this bias in VE estimates for a hypothetical dengue vaccine. To ensure that we realistically modeled heterogeneous exposure, we simulated city-wide DENV transmission and vaccine trial protocols using an agent-based model calibrated with entomological and epidemiological data from long-term field studies in Iquitos, Peru. By simulating a vaccine with a true VE of 0.8 in 1,000 replicate trials each designed to attain 90% power, we found that conventional methods underestimated VE by as much as 21% due to heterogeneous exposure. Accounting for the number of exposures in the vaccine and placebo arms eliminated this bias completely, and the more realistic option of including a frailty term to model exposure as a random effect reduced this bias partially. We also discovered a distinct bias in VE estimates away from the null due to lower detectability of primary DENV infections among seronegative individuals in the vaccinated group. This difference in detectability resulted from our assumption that primary infections in vaccinees who are seronegative at baseline resemble secondary infections, which experience a shorter window of detectable viremia due to a quicker immune response. This resulted in an artefactual finding that VE estimates for the seronegative group were approximately 1% greater than for the seropositive group. Simulation models of vaccine trials that account for these factors can be used to anticipate the extent of bias in field trials and to aid in their interpretation.

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Biased efficacy estimates in phase-III dengue vaccine trials due to heterogeneous exposure and differential detectability of primary infections across trial arms.

High coverage of insecticide-treated bed nets in Asembo and low coverage in Seme, two adjacent communities in western Nyanza Province, Kenya; followed by expanded coverage of bed nets in Seme, as the Kenya national malaria programme rolled out; provided a natural experiment for quantification of changes in relative abundance of two primary malaria vectors in this holoendemic region. Both belong to the Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) species complex, namely A. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles arabiensis. Historically, the former species was proportionately dominant in indoor resting collections of females. Data of the relative abundance of adult A. gambiae s.s. and A. arabiensis sampled from inside houses were obtained from the literature from 1970 to 2002 for sites west of Kisumu, Kenya, to the region of Asembo ca. 50 km from the city. A sampling transect was established from Asembo (where bed net use was high due to presence of a managed bed net distribution programme) eastward to Seme, where no bed net programme was in place. Adults of A. gambiae s.l. were sampled from inside houses along the transect from 2003 to 2009, as were larvae from nearby aquatic habitats, providing data over a nearly 40 year period of the relative abundance of the two species. Relative proportions of A. gambiae s.s. and A. arabiensis were determined for each stage by identifying species by the polymerase chain reaction method. Household bed net ownership was measured with surveys during mosquito collections. Data of blood host choice, parity rate, and infection rate for Plasmodium falciparum in A. gambiae s.s. and A. arabiensis were obtained for a sample from Asembo and Seme from 2005. Anopheles gambiae s.s. adult females from indoor collections predominated from 1970 to 1998 (ca. 85%). Beginning in 1999, A. gambiae s.s decreased proportionately relative to A. arabiensis, then precipitously declined to rarity coincident with increased bed net ownership as national bed net distribution programmes commenced in 2004 and 2006. By 2009, A. gambiae s.s. comprised proportionately ca. 1% of indoor collections and A. arabiensis 99%. In Seme compared to Asembo in 2003, proportionately more larvae were A. gambiae s.s., larval density was higher, and more larval habitats were occupied. As bed net use rose in Seme, the proportion of A. gambiae larvae declined as well. These trends continued to 2009. Parity and malaria infection rates were lower in both species in Asembo (high bed net use) compared to Seme (low bed net use), but host choice did not vary within species in both communities (predominantly cattle for A. arabiensis, humans for A. gambiae s.s.). A marked decline of the A. gambiae s.s. population occurred as household ownership of bed nets rose in a region of western Kenya over a 10 year period. The increased bed net coverage likely caused a mass effect on the composition of the A. gambiae s.l. species complex, resulting in the observed proportionate increase in A. arabiensis compared to its closely related sibling species, A. gambiae s.s. These observations are important in evaluating the process of regional malaria elimination, which requires sustained vector control as a primary intervention.

/pdf/anopheles-gambiae-historical-population-decline-associated-1o66myhnkc.pdf

Anopheles gambiae: historical population decline associated with regional distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets in western Nyanza Province, Kenya

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.

/pdf/detecting-the-impact-of-temperature-on-transmission-of-zika-3g17u21e99.pdf

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.

Author(s): Magori, Krisztian; Legros, Mathieu; Puente, Molly E; Focks, Dana A; Scott, Thomas W; Lloyd, Alun L; Gould, Fred | Abstract: BackgroundDengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional) strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations.Methodology/principal findingsWe describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses) for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM). Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST) values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties.Conclusions/significanceWe demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome of genetic control methods. Skeeter Buster is therefore an important tool to model Ae. aegypti populations and the outcome of vector control measures.

/pdf/skeeter-buster-a-stochastic-spatially-explicit-modeling-tool-21ntgd1tfv.pdf

Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

Density-dependent intraspecific competition has been considered an important determinant of the dynamics of larval stages of Aedes aegypti. A model was published in 1984 providing a mathematical description of this density dependence, based on field data, that has since been widely used. This description, however, is based on the strong assumption that all mortality is density-dependent. We re-examine the data without this premise and find a reduced importance of density dependence, as well as a different functional form. Based on these discrepancies, we emphasize that the characterization of density dependence in the larval stages of Ae. aegypti should be based on a more complete dataset, and we use artificially generated data to explore how such additional information could help developing a better description of this density dependence. We review other empirical studies on larval competition, discuss the need for further dedicated studies, and provide a few simple guidelines for the design of such studies.

/pdf/density-dependent-intraspecific-competition-in-the-larval-163jbix3ez.pdf

Density-Dependent Intraspecific Competition in the Larval Stage of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Revisiting the Current Paradigm

A number of genetic mechanisms have been suggested for driving anti-pathogen genes into natural populations. Each of these mechanisms requires complex genetic engineering, and most are theoretically expected to permanently spread throughout the target species’ geographical range. In the near term, risk issues and technical limits of molecular methods could delay the development and use of these mechanisms. We propose a gene-drive mechanism that can be self-limiting over time and space, and is simpler to build. This mechanism involves one gene that codes for toxicity (killer) and a second that confers immunity to the toxic effects (rescue). We use population-genetic models to explore cases with one or two independent insertions of the killer gene and one insertion of the rescue gene. We vary the dominance and penetrance of gene action, as well as the magnitude of fitness costs. Even with the fitness costs of 10 per cent for each gene, the proportion of mosquitoes expected to transmit the pathogen decreases below 5 per cent for over 40 generations after one 2 : 1 release (engineered : wild) or after four 1 : 2 releases. Both the killer and rescue genes will be lost from the population over time, if the rescue construct has any associated fitness cost. Molecular approaches for constructing strains are discussed.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2008.0846

A killer-rescue system for self-limiting gene drive of anti-pathogen constructs.

Different HLA-G monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) were first evaluated for their capability to identify soluble HLA-G (sHLA-G) in ELISA. Three of them, namely 87G, BFL.1 and MEM-G/9, when used as coating mAbs together with W6/32 capture mAb, identified beta2-microglobulin (beta2m)-associated-sHLA-G but not soluble HLA-B7 (sHLA-B7) in cell culture supernatants from transfected cells. By comparison, the anti-HLA class I mAb 90 did recognize both sHLA-G and sHLA-B7. By using these HLA-G mAbs, sHLA-G was identified in amniotic fluids as well as in culture supernatants of first trimester and term placental explants but not in cord blood. Intron 4-retaining sHLA-G isoforms were identified in some amniotic fluids by the use of an intron 4-specific mAb (16G1). Reactivity of these different HLA-G mAbs was then compared to determine their respective binding sites on soluble and membrane-bound HLA-G. Using both ELISA and flow cytometry analysis, we showed that they did not compete with each other, which suggested that they did not recognize the same determinants. Finally, we report that two mAbs directed against the alpha1 domain of HLA class I heavy chain (mAb 90 and YTH 862) did compete with 87G, therefore demonstrating that this latter mAb recognized an epitope localized on this external domain of HLA-G.

Comparative reactivity of different HLA‐G monoclonal antibodies to soluble HLA‐G molecules

The potential benefits and risks of genetically engineered gene-drive systems for replacing wild pest strains with more benign strains must be assessed prior to any field releases. We develop a computer simulation model to assess the feasibility of using engineered underdominance constructs to drive transgenes into age- and spatially structured mosquito populations. Our practical criterion for success is the achievement of a transgene frequency of at least 0.80 within 3 years of release. The impacts of a number of parameters that may affect the success of gene-drive, such as the release area, release age, density-dependent larval survival, fitness cost of the engineered genes, and migration probability of adults, are examined. Results show that patchy release generally requires the release of fewer engineered insects to achieve success than central release. When the fitness cost is very low, central release covering 25% of the total area can be more effective than a completely uniform release over the whole area. This study demonstrates that to determine the best method of spatial release, and the total number of engineered insects that must be released, it is important to take into account the age and sex of the released insects and spatial structure of the population.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1752-4571.2010.00153.x

Mathieu Legros

Papers

Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

Density-Dependent Intraspecific Competition in the Larval Stage of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Revisiting the Current Paradigm

A killer-rescue system for self-limiting gene drive of anti-pathogen constructs.

Comparative reactivity of different HLA‐G monoclonal antibodies to soluble HLA‐G molecules

Gene-drive into insect populations with age and spatial structure: a theoretical assessment.