Convergence of Probability Measures. By P. Billingsley. Chichester, Sussex, Wiley, 1968. xii, 253 p. 9 1/4“. 117s.

Convergence of Probability Measures

The author's preface gives an outline: "This book is about weakconvergence methods in metric spaces, with applications sufficient to show their power and utility. The Introduction motivates the definitions and indicates how the theory will yield solutions to problems arising outside it. Chapter 1 sets out the basic general theorems, which are then specialized in Chapter 2 to the space C[0, l ] of continuous functions on the unit interval and in Chapter 3 to the space D [0, 1 ] of functions with discontinuities of the first kind. The results of the first three chapters are used in Chapter 4 to derive a variety of limit theorems for dependent sequences of random variables. " The book develops and expands on Donsker's 1951 and 1952 papers on the invariance principle and empirical distributions. The basic random variables remain real-valued although, of course, measures on C[0, l ] and D[0, l ] are vitally used. Within this framework, there are various possibilities for a different and apparently better treatment of the material. More of the general theory of weak convergence of probabilities on separable metric spaces would be useful. Metrizability of the convergence is not brought up until late in the Appendix. The close relation of the Prokhorov metric and a metric for convergence in probability is (hence) not mentioned (see V. Strassen, Ann. Math. Statist. 36 (1965), 423-439; the reviewer, ibid. 39 (1968), 1563-1572). This relation would illuminate and organize such results as Theorems 4.1, 4.2 and 4.4 which give isolated, ad hoc connections between weak convergence of measures and nearness in probability. In the middle of p. 16, it should be noted that C*(S) consists of signed measures which need only be finitely additive if 5 is not compact. On p. 239, where the author twice speaks of separable subsets having nonmeasurable cardinal, he means "discrete" rather than "separable." Theorem 1.4 is Ulam's theorem that a Borel probability on a complete separable metric space is tight. Theorem 1 of Appendix 3 weakens completeness to topological completeness. After mentioning that probabilities on the rationals are tight, the author says it is an

Convergence of probability measures

Preface to the revised edition Remarks on notation 1. Basic examples 2. Characterization and existence 3. Stable processes and their extensions 4. The Levy-Ito decomposition of sample functions 5. Distributional properties of Levy processes 6. Subordination and density transformation 7. Recurrence and transience 8. Potential theory for Levy processes 9. Wiener-Hopf factorizations 10. More distributional properties Supplement Solutions to exercises References and author index Subject index.

Lévy processes and infinitely divisible distributions

(1987). Applied Probability and Queues. Journal of the Operational Research Society: Vol. 38, No. 11, pp. 1095-1096.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fjors.1987.184.pdf

Applied Probability and Queues

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An Introduction To The Theory Of Point Processes

Estimating volatility from recent high frequency data, we revisit the question of the smoothness of the volatility process. Our main result is that log-volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H of order 0.1, at any reasonable timescale. This leads us to adopt the fractional stochastic volatility (FSV) model of Comte and Renault [Long memory in continuous-time stochastic volatility models. Math. Finance, 1998, 8(4), 291–323]. We call our model Rough FSV (RFSV) to underline that, in contrast to FSV, . We demonstrate that our RFSV model is remarkably consistent with financial time series data; one application is that it enables us to obtain improved forecasts of realized volatility. Furthermore, we find that although volatility is not a long memory process in the RFSV model, classical statistical procedures aiming at detecting volatility persistence tend to conclude the presence of long memory in data generated from it. This sheds light on why long memory of volatil...

Volatility is rough

Estimating volatility from recent high frequency data, we revisit the question of the smoothness of the volatility process. Our main result is that log-volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H of order 0.1, at any reasonable time scale. This leads us to adopt the fractional stochastic volatility (FSV) model of Comte and Renault. We call our model Rough FSV (RFSV) to underline that, in contrast to FSV, H<1/2. We demonstrate that our RFSV model is remarkably consistent with financial time series data; one application is that it enables us to obtain improved forecasts of realized volatility. Furthermore, we find that although volatility is not long memory in the RFSV model, classical statistical procedures aiming at detecting volatility persistence tend to conclude the presence of long memory in data generated from it. This sheds light on why long memory of volatility has been widely accepted as a stylized fact. Finally, we provide a quantitative market microstructure-based foundation for our findings, relating the roughness of volatility to high frequency trading and order splitting.

It has been recently shown that rough volatility models, where the volatility is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with small Hurst parameter, provide very relevant dynamics in order to reproduce the behavior of both historical and implied volatilities. However, due to the non‐Markovian nature of the fractional Brownian motion, they raise new issues when it comes to derivatives pricing. Using an original link between nearly unstable Hawkes processes and fractional volatility models, we compute the characteristic function of the log‐price in rough Heston models. In the classical Heston model, the characteristic function is expressed in terms of the solution of a Riccati equation. Here, we show that rough Heston models exhibit quite a similar structure, the Riccati equation being replaced by a fractional Riccati equation.

The characteristic function of rough Heston models

We consider the model

 
y = Xθ∗ + ξ,

 
Z = X + Ξ,

 
where the random vector y ∈ ℝn and the random n × p matrix Z are observed, the n × p matrix X is unknown, Ξ is an n × p random noise matrix, ξ ∈ ℝn is a noise independent of Ξ, and θ∗ is a vector of unknown parameters to be estimated. The matrix uncertainty is in the fact that X is observed with additive error. For dimensions p that can be much larger than the sample size n, we consider the estimation of sparse vectors θ∗. Under matrix uncertainty, the Lasso and Dantzig selector turn out to be extremely unstable in recovering the sparsity pattern (i.e., of the set of nonzero components of θ∗), even if the noise level is very small. We suggest new estimators called matrix uncertainty selectors (or, shortly, the MU-selectors) which are close to θ∗ in different norms and in the prediction risk if the restricted eigenvalue assumption on X is satisfied. We also show that under somewhat stronger assumptions, these estimators recover correctly the sparsity pattern.

/pdf/sparse-recovery-under-matrix-uncertainty-2lpj1n090p.pdf

Sparse recovery under matrix uncertainty

We consider the model {eqnarray*}y=X\theta^*+\xi, Z=X+\Xi,{eqnarray*} where the random vector $y\in\mathbb{R}^n$ and the random $n\times p$ matrix $Z$ are observed, the $n\times p$ matrix $X$ is unknown, $\Xi$ is an $n\times p$ random noise matrix, $\xi\in\mathbb{R}^n$ is a noise independent of $\Xi$, and $\theta^*$ is a vector of unknown parameters to be estimated. The matrix uncertainty is in the fact that $X$ is observed with additive error. For dimensions $p$ that can be much larger than the sample size $n$, we consider the estimation of sparse vectors $\theta^*$. Under matrix uncertainty, the Lasso and Dantzig selector turn out to be extremely unstable in recovering the sparsity pattern (i.e., of the set of nonzero components of $\theta^*$), even if the noise level is very small. We suggest new estimators called matrix uncertainty selectors (or, shortly, the MU-selectors) which are close to $\theta^*$ in different norms and in the prediction risk if the restricted eigenvalue assumption on $X$ is satisfied. We also show that under somewhat stronger assumptions, these estimators recover correctly the sparsity pattern.

Mathieu Rosenbaum

Papers

Volatility is rough

Volatility is rough

The characteristic function of rough Heston models

Sparse recovery under matrix uncertainty

Sparse recovery under matrix uncertainty