Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockstrom and colleagues.

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A safe operating space for humanity

The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

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Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.

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Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity

The two main principles underlying the use of isentropic maps of potential vorticity to represent dynamical processes in the atmosphere are reviewed, including the extension of those principles to take the lower boundary condition into account. the first is the familiar Lagrangian conservation principle, for potential vorticity (PV) and potential temperature, which holds approximately when advective processes dominate frictional and diabatic ones. the second is the principle of ‘invertibility’ of the PV distribution, which holds whether or not diabatic and frictional processes are important. the invertibility principle states that if the total mass under each isentropic surface is specified, then a knowledge of the global distribution of PV on each isentropic surface and of potential temperature at the lower boundary (which within certain limitations can be considered to be part of the PV distribution) is sufficient to deduce, diagnostically, all the other dynamical fields, such as winds, temperatures, geopotential heights, static stabilities, and vertical velocities, under a suitable balance condition. the statement that vertical velocities can be deduced is related to the well-known omega equation principle, and depends on having sufficient information about diabatic and frictional processes. Quasi-geostrophic, semigeostrophic, and ‘nonlinear normal mode initialization’ realizations of the balance condition are discussed. an important constraint on the mass-weighted integral of PV over a material volume and on its possible diabatic and frictional change is noted.

Some basic examples are given, both from operational weather analyses and from idealized theoretical models, to illustrate the insights that can be gained from this approach and to indicate its relation to classical synoptic and air-mass concepts. Included are discussions of (a) the structure, origin and persistence of cutoff cyclones and blocking anticyclones, (b) the physical mechanisms of Rossby wave propagation, baroclinic instability, and barotropic instability, and (c) the spatially and temporally nonuniform way in which such waves and instabilities may become strongly nonlinear, as in an occluding cyclone or in the formation of an upper air shear line. Connections with principles derived from synoptic experience are indicated, such as the ‘PVA rule’ concerning positive vorticity advection on upper air charts, and the role of disturbances of upper air origin, in combination with low-level warm advection, in triggering latent heat release to produce explosive cyclonic development. In all cases it is found that time sequences of isentropic potential vorticity and surface potential temperature charts—which succinctly summarize the combined effects of vorticity advection, thermal advection, and vertical motion without requiring explicit knowledge of the vertical motion field—lead to a very clear and complete picture of the dynamics. This picture is remarkably simple in many cases of real meteorological interest. It involves, in principle, no sacrifices in quantitative accuracy beyond what is inherent in the concept of balance, as used for instance in the initialization of numerical weather forecasts.

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On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps

In the past, studies of stratosphere-troposphere exchange of mass and chemical species have mainly emphasized the synoptic- and small-scale mechanisms of exchange This review, however, includes also the global-scale aspects of exchange, such as the transport across an isentropic surface (potential temperature about 380 K) that in the tropics lies just above the tropopause, near the 100-hPa pressure level Such a surface divides the stratosphere into an “overworld” and an extratropical “lowermost stratosphere” that for transport purposes need to be sharply distinguished This approach places stratosphere-troposphere exchange in the framework of the general circulation and helps to clarify the roles of the different mechanisms involved and the interplay between large and small scales The role of waves and eddies in the extratropical overworld is emphasized There, wave-induced forces drive a kind of global-scale extratropical “fluid-dynamical suction pump,” which withdraws air upward and poleward from the tropical lower stratosphere and pushes it poleward and downward into the extratropical troposphere The resulting global-scale circulation drives the stratosphere away from radiative equilibrium conditions Wave-induced forces may be considered to exert a nonlocal control, mainly downward in the extratropics but reaching laterally into the tropics, over the transport of mass across lower stratospheric isentropic surfaces This mass transport is for many purposes a useful measure of global-scale stratosphere-troposphere exchange, especially on seasonal or longer timescales Because the strongest wave-induced forces occur in the northern hemisphere winter season, the exchange rate is also a maximum at that season The global exchange rate is not determined by details of near-tropopause phenomena such as penetrative cumulus convection or small-scale mixing associated with upper level fronts and cyclones These smaller-scale processes must be considered, however, in order to understand the finer details of exchange Moist convection appears to play an important role in the tropics in accounting for the extreme dehydration of air entering the stratosphere Stratospheric air finds its way back into the troposphere through a vast variety of irreversible eddy exchange phenomena, including tropopause folding and the formation of so-called tropical upper tropospheric troughs and consequent irreversible exchange General circulation models are able to simulate the mean global-scale mass exchange and its seasonal cycle but are not able to properly resolve the tropical dehydration process Two-dimensional (height-latitude) models commonly used for assessment of human impact on the ozone layer include representation of stratosphere-troposphere exchange that is adequate to allow reasonable simulation of photochemical processes occurring in the overworld However, for assessing changes in the lowermost stratosphere, the strong longitudinal asymmetries in stratosphere-troposphere exchange render current two-dimensional models inadequate Either current transport parameterizations must be improved, or else, more likely, such changes can be adequately assessed only by three-dimensional models

Stratosphere‐troposphere exchange

THE dispersal of volcanic material from large tropical eruptions provides insight into the circulation of the lower stratosphere. Here we infer stratospheric motions from zonal mean cross-sections of satellite observations of the aerosol layer taken during 1979–81 and 1984–91. By examining the aerosol distribution following volcanic eruptions in the tropics, we find that poleward transport occurs readily at altitudes within a few kilometres above the tropopause, whereas in the altitude range of 21–28 km, aerosols tend to remain within 20° of the Equator. We further deduce that the aerosol distribution in this upper regime is controlled by the phase of the quasibiennial oscillation. When the easterly shear is present, aerosols are lofted over the Equator, whereas when the westerly shear is present, descent relative to the mean stratospheric circulation occurs over the Equator. From the aerosol distributions, we suggest that the tropical stratosphere may be regarded as a temporary reservoir for trace constituents entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause.

Tropical stratospheric circulation deduced from satellite aerosol data

Ten years (1986‐95) of global analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are used to investigate the temporal and spatial distributions of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) at 350 K along the tropopause, herein defined by the 61.5 potential vorticity (PV) unit (10 26 Km 2 s21 kg21) contours. Though many studies acknowledge RWB as an important contributor to the complex of mixing processes in the atmosphere, there exists no prior climatological study of its distribution near the tropopause. As in previous studies, RWB is identified in the global analyses by southward directed PV gradients. At 350 K, RWB along the tropopause occurs preferentially during summer over the midoceans, in relative proximity to the planetary-scale high pressure systems in the subtropics. Isentropic trajectories at 350 K show that outflow from the tops of these subtropical highs directly participates in RWB over the adjacent, downstream oceanic regions. Two regions are highlighted in this study: the North Pacific during boreal summer and the South Atlantic during austral summer. Synoptic maps of breaking Rossby waves in these regions are provided to reveal the acute tropopause folding in the meridional plane, which characteristically accompanies RWB. The rich interaction between the tropical flow and the extratropical westerly current exhibited by these cases suggests that the subtropical highs serve as important agents in the coupling between the tropical troposphere and the extratropical stratosphere. As expected from theoretical considerations, the locations where RWB occurs most frequently, known as ‘‘surf zones,’’ are shown to coexist with regionally weak time-mean wind speeds and horizontal gradients of PV at 350 K.

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A Climatology of Rossby Wave Breaking along the Subtropical Tropopause

A global climatology of stratospheric aerosol is created by combining nearly a decade (1979-1981 and 1984-1990) of contemporaneous observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE I and II) and Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM II) instruments. One goal of this work is to provide a representative distribution of the aerosol layer for use in radiative and chemical modeling. A table of decadal average 1 micron extinction values is included, extending from the tropopause to 35 km and 80 deg S to 85 deg N, which allows estimation of surface area density. We find that the aerosol layer is distinctly volcanic in nature and suggest that the decadal average is a more useful estimate of future aerosol loading than a 'background' loading, which is never clearly achieved during the data record. This climatology lends insight into the general circulation of the stratosphere. Latitude - altitude sections of extinction radio at 1 micron are shown, average by decade, season, and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A tropical reservoir region is diagnosed, with an 'upper' and a 'lower' transport regime. In the tropics above 22 km (upper regime), enhanced lofting occurs in the summer, with suppressed lofting or eddy dilution in the winter. In the extratropics within two scale heights of the tropopause (lower regime), poleward and downward transport is most robust during winter, especially in the northern hemisphere. The transport patterns persist into the subsequent equinoctial season. Ascent associated with QBO easterly shear favors detrainment in the upper regime, while relative descent and poleward spreading during QBO westerly shear favors detrainment in the lower regime. Extinction radio differences between the winter-spring and summer-fall hemispheres, and differences between the two phases of the QBO, are typically 20-50%. Dynamical implications of the aerosol distributions are explored, with focus on interhemispheric differences, strong subtropical gradients, and the pronounced annual cycle.

A climatology of stratospheric aerosol

The height and amount of tropical deep convection are examined for a correlation with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A new 23-yr record of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and a corrected 17-yr record of the highly reflective cloud (HRC) index are used as measures of convection. When binned by phase of the QBO, zonal means and maps of OLR and HRC carry a QBO signal. The spatial patterns of the maps highlight the QBO signal of OLR and HRC in typically convective regions. Spectral analysis of zonal mean OLR and HRC near the equator reveals significant peaks at QBO frequencies. Rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis is used to determine if ENSO variations of convection are aliased into the observed QBO signals. Some analyses are repeated using the OLR record after ENSO REOF modes have been removed, yielding very similar results compared to the original analyses. It appears that the QBO signal is distinct from the ENSO signal, although the relative brevity of the ...

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On The Relationship between the QBO and Tropical Deep Convection

Data from the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) for the period October 25, 1978-May 28, 1979 are used in a descriptive study of ozone variations in the middle stratosphere. It is shown that the ozone distribution is strongly influenced by irreversible deformation associated with large amplitude planetary-scale waves. This process, which has been described by McIntyre and Palmer as planetary wave breaking, takes place throughout the 3-30 mb layer, and poleward transport of ozone within this layer occurs in narrow tongues drawn on the tropics and subtropics in association with major and minor warming events. These events complement the zonal mean diabatic circulation in producing significant changes in the total column amount of ozone.

Matthew H. Hitchman

Papers

Tropical stratospheric circulation deduced from satellite aerosol data

A Climatology of Rossby Wave Breaking along the Subtropical Tropopause

A climatology of stratospheric aerosol

On The Relationship between the QBO and Tropical Deep Convection

Transport of ozone in the middle stratosphere: evidence for planetary wave breaking