Showing papers in "Journal of Climate in 2003"

Bulk Parameterization of Air–Sea Fluxes: Updates and Verification for the COARE Algorithm

Abstract: In 1996, version 2.5 of the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) bulk algorithm was published, and it has become one of the most frequently used algorithms in the air–sea interaction community. This paper describes steps taken to improve the algorithm in several ways. The number of iterations to solve for stability has been shortened from 20 to 3, and adjustments have been made to the basic profile stability functions. The scalar transfer coefficients have been redefined in terms of the mixing ratio, which is the fundamentally conserved quantity, rather than the measured water vapor mass concentration. Both the velocity and scalar roughness lengths have been changed. For the velocity roughness, the original fixed value of the Charnock parameter has been replaced by one that increases with wind speeds of between 10 and 18 m s−1. The scalar roughness length parameterization has been simplified to fit both an early set of NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory (ETL) experiments and...

Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses

Abstract: Several papers have described a significant trend toward the positive phase of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) in recent decades. The SAM is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) so such a change implies a major shift in the broadscale climate of this hemisphere. However, the majority of these studies have used NCEP‐NCAR reanalysis (NNR) data, which are known to have spurious negative trends in SH high-latitude pressure. Thus, given that the SAM describes the relative atmospheric anomalies at mid- and high southern latitudes, these errors in the NNR data have the potential to invalidate the published findings on changes in the SAM. Therefore, it is important that a ‘‘true’’ benchmark of trends in the SAM is available against which future climate scenarios as revealed through climate models can be examined. In this paper this issue is addressed by employing an empirical definition of the SAM so that station data can be utilized to evaluate true temporal changes: six stations are used to calculate a proxy zonal mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at both 408 and 658S during 1958‐2000. The observed increase in the difference in zonal MSLP between 408 (increasing) and 658S (decreasing) is shown to be statistically significant, with the trend being most pronounced since the mid-1970s. However, it is demonstrated that calculated trends in the MSLP difference between 408 and 658S and the SAM itself are exaggerated by a factor of 3 and 2, respectively, in the NNR. The SH high-latitude errors in the early part of this reanalysis are greatest in winter as are subsequent improvements. As a result, the NNR shows the greatest seasonal trend in the SAM to be in the austral winter, in marked contrast to observational data, which reveal the largest real increase to be in summer. Equivalent data from two ECMWF reanalyses, including part of the new ERA-40 reanalysis, are also examined. It is demonstrated that ERA-40 provides an improved representation of SH high-latitude atmospheric circulation variability that can be used with high confidence at least as far back as 1973—and is therefore ideal for examining the recent trend in the SAM—and with more confidence than the NNR right back to 1958.

Hemispheric and Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and an Update to 2001.

Abstract: This study is an extensive revision of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) land station temperature database that is used to produce a gridbox dataset of 58 latitude 3 58 longitude temperature anomalies. The new database comprises 5159 station records, of which 4167 have enough data for the 1961‐90 period to calculate or estimate the necessary averages. Apart from the increase in station numbers compared to the earlier study in 1994, many station records have had their data replaced by newly homogenized series that have been produced by several recent studies. New versions of all the gridded datasets currently available on the CRU Web site (http:// www.cru.uea.ac.uk) have been developed. This includes combinations with marine (sea surface temperature anomalies) data over the oceans and versions with adjustment of the variance of individual gridbox series to remove the effects of changing station numbers through time. Hemispheric and global temperature averages for land areas developed with the new dataset differ slightly from those developed in 1994. Possible reasons for the differences between the new and the earlier analysis and those from the National Climatic Data Center and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies are discussed. Differences are greatest over the Southern Hemisphere and at the beginnings and ends of each time series and relate to gridbox sizes and data availability. The rate of annual warming for global land areas over the 1901‐ 2000 period is estimated by least squares to be 0.078C decade21 (significant at better than the 99.9% level). Warming is not continuous but occurs principally over two periods (about 1920‐45 and since 1975). Annual temperature series for the seven continents and the Arctic all show significant warming over the twentieth century, with significant (95%) warming for 1920‐44 for North America, the Arctic, Africa, and South America, and all continents except Australia and the Antarctic since 1977. Cooling is significant during the intervening period (1945‐76) for North America, the Arctic, and Africa.

Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe, 1946–99

Abstract: Trends in indices of climate extremes are studied on the basis of daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from more than 100 meteorological stations in Europe. The period is 1946–99, a warming episode. Averaged over all stations, the indices of temperature extremes indicate “symmetric” warming of the cold and warm tails of the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature in this period. However, “asymmetry” is found for the trends if the period is split into two subperiods. For the 1946–75 subperiod, an episode of slight cooling, the annual number of warm extremes decreases, but the annual number of cold extremes does not increase. This implies a reduction in temperature variability. For the 1976–99 subperiod, an episode of pronounced warming, the annual number of warm extremes increases 2 times faster than expected from the corresponding decrease in the number of cold extremes. This implies an increase in temperature variability, which is mainly due to stagnation in ...

ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Abstract: Variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), on both interannual and decadal timescales, is well modeled as the sum of direct forcing by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ''reemergence'' of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in subsequent winters, and white noise atmospheric forcing. This simple model may be taken as a null hypothesis for the PDO, and may also be relevant for other climate integrators that have been previously related to the PDO.

A Global Database of Land Surface Parameters at 1-km Resolution in Meteorological and Climate Models

Abstract: Ecoclimap, a new complete surface parameter global dataset at a 1-km resolution, is presented. It is intended to be used to initialize the soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer schemes (SVATs) in meteorological and climate models (at all horizontal scales). The database supports the “tile” approach, which is utilized by an increasing number of SVATs. Two hundred and fifteen ecosystems representing areas of homogeneous vegetation are derived by combining existing land cover maps and climate maps, in addition to using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data. Then, all surface parameters are derived for each of these ecosystems using lookup tables with the annual cycle of the leaf area index (LAI) being constrained by the AVHRR information. The resulting LAI is validated against a large amount of in situ ground observations, and it is also compared to LAI derived from the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP-2) database and the Polarization and Direc...

The Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and Convective Intensity according to Three Years of TRMM Measurements

Abstract: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite measurements from the precipitation radar and TRMM microwave imager have been combined to yield a comprehensive 3-yr database of precipitation features (PFs) throughout the global Tropics (±36° latitude). The PFs retrieved using this algorithm (which number nearly six million Tropicswide) have been sorted by size and intensity ranging from small shallow features greater than 75 km2 in area to large mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) according to their radar and ice scattering characteristics. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the diurnal cycle of the observed precipitation features' rainfall amount, precipitation feature frequency, rainfall intensity, convective–stratiform rainfall portioning, and remotely sensed convective intensity, sampled Tropicswide from space. The observations are sorted regionally to examine the stark differences in the diurnal cycle of rainfall and convective intensity over land and ocean areas. Over ...

Atmosphere-Warm Ocean Interaction and Its Impacts on Asian-Australian Monsoon Variation*

Abstract: Asian–Australian monsoon (A–AM) anomalies depend strongly on phases of El Nino (La Nina). Based on this distinctive feature, a method of extended singular value decomposition analysis was developed to analyze the changing characteristics of A–AM anomalies during El Nino (La Nina) from its development to decay. Two off-equatorial surface anticyclones dominate the A–AM anomalies during an El Nino—one over the south Indian Ocean (SIO) and the other over the western North Pacific (WNP). The SIO anticyclone, which affects climate conditions over the Indian Ocean, eastern Africa, and India, originates during the summer of a growing El Nino, rapidly reaches its peak intensity in fall, and decays when El Nino matures. The WNP anticyclone, on the other hand, forms in fall, attains maximum intensity after El Nino matures, and persists through the subsequent spring and summer, providing a prolonged impact on the WNP and east Asian climate. The monsoon anomalies associated with a La Nina resemble those durin...

Extended Reconstruction of Global Sea Surface Temperatures Based on COADS Data (1854–1997)

Abstract: A monthly extended reconstruction of global SST (ERSST) is produced based on Comprehensive Ocean‐ Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) release 2 observations from the 1854‐1997 period. Improvements come from the use of updated COADS observations with new quality control procedures and from improved reconstruction methods. In addition error estimates are computed, which include uncertainty from both sampling and analysis errors. Using this method, little global variance can be reconstructed before the 1880s because data are too sparse to resolve enough modes for that period. Error estimates indicate that except in the North Atlantic ERSST is of limited value before 1880, when the uncertainty of the near-global average is almost as large as the signal. In most regions, the uncertainty decreases through most of the period and is smallest after 1950. The large-scale variations of ERSST are broadly consistent with those associated with the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) reconstruction produced by the Met Office. There are differences due to both the use of different historical bias corrections as well as different data and analysis procedures, but these differences do not change the overall character of the SST variations. Procedures used here produce a smoother analysis compared to HadISST. The smoother ERSST has the advantage of filtering out more noise at the possible cost of filtering out some real variations when sampling is sparse. A rotated EOF analysis of the ERSST anomalies shows that the dominant modes of variation include ENSO and modes associated with trends. Projection of the HadISST data onto the rotated eigenvectors produces time series similar to those for ERSST, indicating that the dominant modes of variation are consistent in both.

Evolution of ENSO-Related Rainfall Anomalies in East Asia

Abstract: The present study documents seasonal rainfall anomalies in East Asia during different phases of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using station rainfall and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for the period of 1951–2000 through lag–lead correlation/regression and extended singular value decomposition analyses. The ENSO-related rainfall anomalies consist of two major evolving centers of action: one positive and the other negative. The positive center of action affects southern China, eastern central China, and southern Japan during the fall of an ENSO developing year through the following spring. The negative center of action is over northern China during the summer and fall of an ENSO developing year. Seasonal rainfall variance explained by ENSO is about 20%–30% in southern China in fall and winter, about 20% in eastern central China in spring after the mature phase of ENSO, and around 15%–20% in western north China in summer and fall of an ENSO developing year. The two main rainfall anomalies are induce...

The West African Monsoon Dynamics. Part II: The “Preonset” and “Onset” of the Summer Monsoon

Abstract: The arrival of the summer monsoon over West Africa has been documented by using daily gridded rainfall data and NCEP‐NCAR reanalyses during the period 1968‐90, and OLR data over the period 1979‐90. Two steps have been characterized through a composite approach: the preonset and the onset of the summer monsoon. The preonset stage corresponds to the arrival in the intertropical front (ITF) at 15 8N, that is, the confluence line between moist southwesterly monsoon winds and dry northeasterly Harmattan, bringing sufficient moisture for isolated convective systems to develop in the Sudano‐Sahelian zone while the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is centered at 58N. The mean date for the preonset occurrence is 14 May and its standard deviation is 9.5 days during the period 1968‐90. This leads to a first clear increase of the positive rainfall slope corresponding to the beginning of the rainy season over this Sudano‐Sahelian area. The onset stage of the summer monsoon over West Africa is linked to an abrupt latitudinal shift of the ITCZ from a quasi-stationary location at 58N in May‐June to another quasi-stationary location at 108N in July‐August. The mean date for the onset occurrence is 24 June and its standard deviation is 8 days during the period 1968‐ 90. This leads to a second increase of the positive rainfall slope over the Sudano‐Sahelian zone signing the northernmost location of the ITCZ and the beginning of the monsoon season. This abrupt shift occurs mostly between 108W and 58E, where a meridional land‐sea contrast exists, and it is characterized by a temporary rainfall and convection decrease over West Africa. Preonset dates, onset dates, and summer rainfall amount over the Sahel are uncorrelated during the period 1968‐90. The atmospheric dynamics associated with the abrupt ITCZ shift has been investigated. Between the preonset and the onset stages, the heat low dynamics associated with the ITF controls the circulation in the low and midlevels. Its meridional circulation intensity is the highest at the beginning of the monsoon onset. This can lead to 1) increased convective inhibition in the ITCZ through intrusion of dry and subsiding air from the north, and 2) increased potential instability through a greater inland moisture advection and a higher monsoon depth induced by a stronger cyclonic circulation in the low levels, through higher vertical wind shear due to westerly monsoon wind and midlevel African easterly jet (AEJ) increases, through enhancement of the instability character of the AEJ, and through increased shortwave radiation received at the surface. During the monsoon onset, once the rainfall minimum occurred due to the convective inhibition, the accumulated potential instability breaks the convective inhibition, the inertial instability of the monsoon circulation is released, and the associated regionalscale circulation increases, leading to the abrupt shift of the ITCZ. Then the ITCZ moves north up to 108N, where thermodynamical conditions are favorable. It is suggested by the authors that the abrupt shift of the ITCZ, initiated by the amplification of the heat low dynamics, could be due to an interaction with the northern orography of the Atlas‐Ahaggar Mountains. Subsidence over and north of this orography, due to both the northern branches of the heat low and of the northern Hadleytype cell, contributes to enhance the high geopotentials north of these mountains and the associated northeasterly winds. This leads to the development of a leeward trough that reinforces the heat low dynamics, maintaining an active convective ITCZ through enhanced moist air advection from the ocean, increasing the northern Hadley circulation, which reinforces the high geopotentials and the interaction with the orography through a positive feedback. The fact that an abrupt shift of the ITCZ is only observed on the western part of West Africa may result from the enhancement of moisture advection, which comes from the west and has a stronger impact west of the Greenwich meridian. The northwest‐southeast orientation of the Atlas‐Ahaggar crest can induce the interaction with the heat low, first in the east where the mountains are nearer to the ITF than in the west, and second in the west. Another consequence of the possible orography-induced interaction with the atmospheric circulation is that the induced leeward trough, increasing the cyclonic vorticity in the heat low, may stimulate moisture convergence in the oceanic ITCZ near the western coast of West Africa.

Stratiform Rain in the Tropics as Seen by the TRMM Precipitation Radar

Abstract: Across the Tropics (20°N–20°S), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) indicates that for reflectivities ≥17 dBZ, stratiform precipitation accounts for 73% of the area covered by rain and 40% of the total rain amount over a 3-yr period (1998–2000). The ratio of the convective rain rate to the stratiform rain rate is 4.1 on average at the horizontal resolution of the PR data. Convective rain rates remain constant or decrease as the stratiform contribution to total rain increases, implying that stratiform rain production is not very dependent on the strength of convection. This relationship is especially evident over the ocean, where there are weaker convective rain rates than over land but relatively larger stratiform rain amounts. The ocean environment appears more efficient in the production of stratiform precipitation through either the sustainability of convection by a warm, moist boundary layer with only a weak diurnal variation and/or by the near–moist adiaba...

The Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO(.

Abstract: Midlatitude atmospheric variability is identified as a particularly effective component of the stochastic forcing of ENSO. This forcing is realized via a seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM), in which the tropical atmosphere is forced during the spring and summer by SST anomalies generated by midlatitude atmospheric variability during the previous winter. The strong relationship between the SFM and ENSO may serve to enhance ENSO predictability and supports the view that ENSO is linearly stable in nature.

Spatial and Seasonal Variations of Air Temperature Lapse Rates in Alpine Regions

Abstract: Air temperature decrease with altitude was estimated by simple linear regression for several regions around northern Italy for minimum, maximum, and mean monthly temperatures. The comparison of the gradients with previous works revealed the absence of a lapse rate seasonal pattern in most earlier studies. Such inconsistencies in other analyses were demonstrated to be largely due to insufficient climatic stations in each area, and incomplete temporal coverage. These problems were solved here by using 269 stations in northern Italy, 205 in the Tyrol area, and 166 in the Trentin–Upper Adige region, covering a wide range of elevations and based on at least 30-yr means. Yearly lapse rates ranging from −0.54° to −0.58°C (100 m)−1 were obtained. As hypothesized, a seasonal pattern in monthly gradient variations was observed, regardless of location, and with higher lapse rates during summer. Weather stations on valley bottoms were distinguished from those located on slopes, the former group being heavily...

Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Impacts of ENSO and Local Air–Sea Interaction

Abstract: Relationships between Indonesian rainfall and Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and circulation anomalies are investigated using observations for 1951-97. Indonesia receives significant rainfall year-round but experiences a wet season that peaks in January and a dry season that peaks in August. Dry season rainfall anomalies are spatially coherent, strongly correlated with SST, and tightly coupled to El Nino-Southern Oscil- lation (ENSO) variations in the Pacific basin. Drought conditions typically occur during El Nino, when SSTs surrounding Indonesia are cool and the Walker circulation is weakened, resulting in anomalous surface easterlies across Indonesia. The opposite tends to occur during La Nina. Broadscale Indonesian rainfall and SST anomalies tend to not persist from the dry season into the wet season. Rainfall in the heart of the wet season tends to be uncorrelated with SST and spatially incoherent. Seasonally varying feedback between Indonesian SST, winds, and rainfall explains the growth, persistence, and coherence of the local anomalies during the dry season and their decay or change in sign once the wet season commences. During the dry season anomalous surface easterlies, remotely driven by warm SSTs in the central Pacific during El Nino, act to increase local wind speed, cooling the ocean surrounding and to the east of Indonesia and thereby increasing the anomalous SST gradient across the Pacific. Hence, local rainfall and the Walker circulation are further reduced. Once the wet season commences and the climatological surface winds across Indonesia shift from southeasterly to northwesterly, the anomalous surface easterlies now act to reduce the wind speed. The initial cold SST anomaly is damped, reducing the negative rainfall anomalies and surface easterlies. The opposite scenario occurs during La Nina. Indonesian rainfall variations during the dry season are also coupled to the development of an anomalous zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Indian Ocean. This anomalous gradient is strongly related to ENSO and is most prominent during the dry season. Once the wet season commences, the entire Indian Ocean tends to have the same-signed SST anomaly (positive during El Nino and negative during La Nina). Development and decay of this anomalous zonal SST gradient in the Indian Ocean is promoted by seasonally varying air-sea interaction in the eastern Indian Ocean in response to ENSO conditions in the Pacific. The eastern Indian Ocean SST changes are driven largely by induced surface heat flux variations (primarily changes in latent heat flux and net shortwave radiation). Biennial variations in the Indonesian region may also be induced by this seasonally varying air-sea interaction associated with ENSO.

Atmosphere–Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes

Abstract: The influences of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air–sea interaction in the Indian–western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950–99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted. Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anom...

The Maritime Continent and Its Role in the Global Climate: A GCM Study

Abstract: The Maritime Continent, with its complex system of islands and shallow seas, presents a major challenge to models, which tend to systematically underestimate the precipitation in this region. Experiments with a climate version of the Met Office model (HadAM3) show that even with a threefold increase in horizontal resolution there is no improvement in the dry bias. It is argued that the diurnal cycle over the islands and the complex circulation patterns generated by land–sea contrasts are crucial for the energy and hydrological cycles of the Maritime Continent and for determining the mean climate. It is shown that the model has substantial errors in its simulation of the diurnal cycle over the islands, which can rectify onto the seasonal mean climate. It is further argued that deficient rainfall over the Maritime Continent could be a driver for other systematic errors, such as the excess precipitation over the western Indian Ocean. To demonstrate the sensitivity of global systematic model errors t...

Mechanisms of Hemispherically Symmetric Climate Variability

Abstract: Inspired by paleoclimate evidence that much past climate change has been symmetric about the equator, the causes of hemispherically symmetric variability in the recent observational record are examined using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset and numerical models. It was found that the dominant cause of hemispherically symmetric variability is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. During an El Nino event the Tropics warm at all longitudes and the subtropical jets in both hemi- spheres strengthen on their equatorward flanks. Poleward of the tropical warming there are latitude belts of marked cooling, extending from the surface to the tropopause in both hemispheres, at all longitudes and in all seasons. The midlatitude cooling is caused by changes in the eddy-driven mean meridional circulation. Changes in the transient eddy momentum fluxes during an El Nino event force upper-tropospheric ascent in midlatitudes through a balance between the eddy fluxes and the Coriolis torque. The eddy-driven ascent causes anomalous adiabatic cooling, which is primarily balanced by anomalous diabatic heating. Using a quasigeostrophic spherical model, forced by an imposed surface eddy disturbance of chosen wave- number and frequency, it is shown that the anomalous eddy momentum fluxes are caused by the impact that the changes in the tropically forced subtropical jets have on the propagation in the latitude-height plane of transient eddies. Changes in zonal winds, and associated changes in the meridional gradient of potential vorticity, create an anomalous region of low meridional wavenumber in the midlatitudes that refracts waves away both poleward and equatorward. Tropical forcing of variability in the eddy-driven mean meridional circulation is another way, in addition to Rossby wave teleconnections, whereby the Tropics can influence extratropical climate. Unlike teleconnections this mechanism causes climate variability that has strong zonally and hemispherically symmetric components and operates throughout the seasonal cycle.

Large-Scale Ocean Heat and Freshwater Transports during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment

Abstract: Hydrographic sections obtained during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are combined using a geostrophic inverse model to estimate the global-scale horizontal transports and transport divergences of heat and freshwater with self-consistent error bars. The overall results are compared to bulk formula‐derived climatologies and estimates derived from atmospheric reanalyses. At 7.58N in the Atlantic, a previous estimate of the heat transport is modified. A recent atmospheric residual estimate from NCEP and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) products is consistent with the present results for the heat budget, except at high northern latitudes where it falls outside error estimates. The freshwater transport divergence from hydrography is statistically significant only when integrated over very large areas and difficult to test—as extant climatological estimates differ substantially from each other. Hydrographic estimates can be improved through repeated observations to reduce the temporal aliasing, and by combining more detailed regional estimates using more data types. To permit a formal comparison and assimilation in ocean general circulation models, atmospheric estimates urgently require convincing error estimates for both heat and freshwater transports.

GPCP Pentad Precipitation analyses: An experimental dataset based on gauge observations and satellite estimates

Abstract: As part of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), analyses of pentad precipitation have been constructed on a 2.58 latitude‐longitude grid over the globe for a 23-yr period from 1979 to 2001 by adjusting the pentad Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) against the monthly GPCP-merged analyses. This adjustment is essential because the precipitation magnitude in the pentad CMAP is not consistent with that in the monthly CMAP or monthly GPCP datasets primarily due to the differences in the input data sources and merging algorithms, causing problems in applications where joint use of the pentad and monthly datasets is necessary. First, pentad CMAP-merged analyses are created by merging several kinds of individual data sources including gauge-based analyses of pentad precipitation, and estimates inferred from satellite observations. The pentad CMAP dataset is then adjusted by the monthly GPCP-merged analyses so that the adjusted pentad analyses match the monthly GPCP in magnitude while the high-frequency components in the pentad CMAP are retained. The adjusted analyses, called the GPCP-merged analyses of pentad precipitation, are compared to several gauge-based datasets. The results show that the pentad GPCP analyses reproduced spatial distribution patterns of total precipitation and temporal variations of submonthly scales with relatively high quality especially over land. Simple applications of the 23-yr dataset demonstrate that it is useful in monitoring and diagnosing intraseasonal variability. The Pentad GPCP has been accepted by the GPCP as one of its official products and is being updated on a quasi-real-time basis.

Seasonality of the ENSO-Related Rainfall Variability in Central Chile and Associated Circulation Anomalies

Abstract: The seasonality of the ENSO-rainfall relationship in central Chile (308-418S) and associated circulation anomalies are studied using correlation and compositing techniques. During El Nino episodes there is a tendency for the occurrence of above-average precipitation between 308 and 358S in winter (June-July-August (JJA)) and from 358 to 388S in late spring (October-November (ON)), while rainfall deficit is typically observed from around 388 to 418S during the following summer (January-February-March (JFM)), when El Nino reaches its maximum development. Opposite rainfall anomalies are characteristic during La Nina events. This study confirms results from previous investigations indicating that enhanced blocking activity over the Amundsen-Bellings- hausen Seas area in the southeastern (SE) Pacific during El Nino is a key feature explaining the wet conditions in winter. It is also shown that the same circulation anomaly explains the relatively wet conditions in late spring in the 358-388S region during El Nino episodes. Furthermore, the southward displacement from winter to late spring of the area with significant ENSO-related rainfall anomalies seems associated with the seasonal migration of the boundary separating the region under the influence of the subtropical domain from the extratropical domain, where the westerly regime and associated disturbances prevail. Blocking episodes in the SE Pacific during El Nino seem to be part of a wave structure, particularly intense during spring, characterized by a sequence of positive and negative quasi-barotropic height anomalies stretching southeastward from the equator toward the SE Pacific and back to the southwestern Atlantic. On the other hand, anomalously dry conditions in winter and late spring during La Nina are favored by long-lasting and intense ridges at subtropical latitudes over the SE Pacific and South America resulting in a southward migration of the midlatitude storm tracks. In summer, a higher frequency of ridges in the southern tip of the South America during El Nino episodes presumably contributes to reinforcement of the southern edge of the subtropical anticyclone in the SE Pacific, which at this time of the year reaches its southernmost position, resulting in the annual rainfall minimum. On the other hand, an increased frequency of cyclonic circulation anomalies crossing the southern tip of the continent is associated with relatively wet conditions in southern-central Chile, particularly during La Nina events.

Warming trends in the Arctic from clear sky satellite observations

Abstract: Satellite thermal infrared data on surface temperatures provide pan-Arctic coverage from 1981 to 2001 during cloud-free conditions and reveal large warming anomalies in the 1990s compared to the 1980s and regional variability in the trend. The rms error of the derived surface temperatures when compared with in situ data ranges from 1.5 to 3 K over the 20-yr period. Average temperature trends are generally positive at 0.33 ± 0.16°C decade−1 over sea ice, 0.50 ± 0.22°C decade−1 over Eurasia, and 1.06 ± 0.22°C decade−1 over North America. The trend is slightly negative and insignificant at −0.09 ± 0.25°C decade−1 in Greenland with the negatives mainly at high elevations. The trends are also predominantly positive in spring, summer, and autumn causing the lengthening of the melt season by 10–17 days per decade while they are generally negative in winter. The longer-term in situ surface temperature data shows that the 20-yr trend is 8 times larger than the 100-yr trend suggesting a rapid acceleration ...

Comparison of Modeled and Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Climate Extremes

Abstract: Gridded trends of annual values of various climate extreme indices were estimated for 1950 to 1995, presenting a clearer picture of the patterns of trends in climate extremes than has been seen with raw station data. The gridding also allows one, for the first time, to compare these observed trends with those simulated by a suite of climate model runs forced by observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, and various combinations of human-induced forcings. Bootstrapping techniques are used to assess the uncertainty in the gridded trend estimates and the field significance of the patterns of observed trends. The findings mainly confirm earlier, less objectively derived, results based on station data. There have been significant decreases in the number of frost days and increases in the number of very warm nights over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Regions of significant increases in rainfall extremes and decreases in the number of consecutive dry days are smaller in extent. Howe...

Data-Based Meridional Overturning Streamfunctions for the Global Ocean

Abstract: The meridional overturning circulation for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans is computed from absolute geostrophic velocity estimates based on hydrographic data and from climatological Ekman transports. The Atlantic overturn includes the expected North Atlantic Deep Water formation (including Labrador Sea Water and Nordic Sea Overflow Water), with an amplitude of about 18 Sv through most of the Atlantic and an error of the order of 3–5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (Antarctic Bottom Water) flows north with about 8 Sv of upwelling and a southward return in the South Atlantic, and 6 Sv extending to and upwelling in the North Atlantic. The northward flow of 8 Sv in the upper layer in the Atlantic (sea surface through the Antarctic Intermediate Water) is transformed to lower density in the Tropics before losing buoyancy in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. The Pacific overturning streamfunction includes 10 Sv of Lower Circumpolar Deep Water flowing north in...

The El Nino Impact on the Summer Monsoon in Brazil: Regional Processes versus Remote Influences

Abstract: The El Nino impact on Brazil's summer monsoon has not been adequately assessed through seasonal analysis because it shows significant subseasonal variations. In this study, the El Nino influence on the summer monsoon circulation, rainfall, and temperature is analyzed with monthly resolution, using data from a dense network of stations. The expected precipitation percentiles during the monsoon season of El Nino (EN) events are calculated, as well as anomalies of surface temperature and thermodynamic parameters. This information is analyzed jointly with anomaly composites of several circulation parameters. The analysis shows that some precipitation and circulation anomalies, which are consistent and important during part of the season, are smoothed out in a seasonal analysis. There are abrupt changes of anomalies within the summer monsoon season, suggesting the prevalence of regional processes over remote influences during part of the season. The probable role of remote influences and regional processes is assessed. The anomalous heat sources associated with El Nino perturb the Walker and Hadley circulations over South America and generate Rossby wave trains that produce important effects in the subtropics and extratropics. In the early summer monsoon season, remotely produced atmospheric perturbations prevail over Brazil. Anticyclonic low-level anomalies predominate over central-east Brazil, in the Tropics and subtropics, due to the subsidence over the Amazon and to Rossby waves in the subtropics. Easterly moisture inflow from the Atlantic is favored, but diverted toward northern South America (SA) and south Brazil. There are negative precipitation anomalies in north and central-east Brazil and positive ones in south Brazil. These precipitation anomalies are favored by the perturbation in the Walker and Hadley circulation over the east Pacific and South America, and by a Rossby wave train over southern SA that originates in the eastern Pacific. In January, with the enhancement of the continental subtropical heat low by anomalous surface heating during the spring, there is anomalous low-level convergence and cyclonic circulation over southeast Brazil, while at the upper levels anomalies of divergence and anticyclonic circulation prevail. This anomalous circulation directs moisture flux toward central-east Brazil, causing moisture convergence in this region. A favorable thermodynamic structure enhances precipitation over central-east Brazil, the dry anomalies in north Brazil are displaced northward, and the anomalies in south Brazil almost disappear. In February, after the above-normal precipitation of January, the surface temperature anomalies turn negative and the precipitation diminishes in central-east Brazil. There are negative rainfall anomalies in north Brazil and in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and positive ones in south Brazil. Influence function analysis shows that while the anomalies of circulation over southeast Brazil in the spring of El Nino years are mostly due to remote influences from the tropical east Pacific, those in January are probably due to local influence. During this month the monsoonlike circulation is enhanced. Simultaneous and lagged correlation analysis of SST and rainfall in central-east Brazil shows that SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean off the southeastern coast of Brazil fluctuate on the same timescale as the circulation and precipitation anomalies.

Statistical Precipitation Downscaling over the Northwestern United States Using Numerically Simulated Precipitation as a Predictor

Abstract: This study investigates whether GCM-simulated precipitation is a good predictor for regional precipitation over Washington and Oregon. In order to allow for a detailed comparison of the estimated precipitation with observations, the simulated precipitation is taken from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, which nearly perfectly represents the historic pressure, temperature, and humidity, but calculates precipitation according to the model physics and parameterizations. Three statistical downscaling methods are investigated: (i) local rescaling of the simulated precipitation, and two newly developed methods, namely, (ii) downscaling using singular value decomposition (SVD) with simulated precipitation as the predictor, and (iii) local rescaling with a dynamical correction. Both local scaling methods are straightforward to apply to GCMs that are used for climate change experiments and seasonal forecasts, since they only need control runs for model fitting. The SVD method requires for model fitting special re...

Eddy–Zonal Flow Feedback in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract: The variability of the zonal-mean zonal wind in the Northern Hemisphere winter (December‐March) is studied using EOF analysis and momentum budget diagnostics of NCEP‐NCAR reanalysis data (1976‐2001). The leading EOF of the zonal-mean zonal wind is well separated from the remaining EOFs and represents the north‐south movement of the midlatitude westerlies. Analysis of the momentum budget shows that a positive feedback between the zonal-mean wind anomalies and the eddy momentum fluxes selects the leading EOF of midlatitude variability. Like the Southern Hemisphere, the baroclinic eddies reinforce the zonal wind anomalies while external Rossby waves damp the wind anomalies. In the Northern Hemisphere, the quasi-stationary eddies also reinforce the zonal wind anomalies, but the baroclinic eddies are most important for the positive eddy‐zonal flow feedback. The observations support the following feedback mechanisms. 1) Above-normal baroclinic wave activity is generated in the region of enhanced westerlies. This leads to wave propagation out of the westerlies that is associated with reinforcing eddy momentum fluxes. 2) The westerly jet is a waveguide for external Rossby waves that tend to propagate into the jet and remove momentum from it. 3) The quasi-stationary waves respond to a refractive index anomaly in the high latitudes below the tropopause. During the high (low) index this anomaly is negative (positive) leading to an acceleration (deceleration) of the zonal wind in the high latitudes.

Structure of SST and Surface Wind Variability during Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Events: COADS Observations*

Abstract: A study of the detailed spatiotemporal characteristics of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode in SST and surface winds using available observations from 1958 till 1997 is reported. The analysis is used to address several of the controversial issues regarding the IOD. One key finding of this study is that interdecadal fluctuations contribute strongly to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST variability; in SST anomalies (SSTA) interdecadal variance is as strong as interannual variance. Over both the western and eastern TIO, an accelerated warming of SST after the mid-1970s is apparent. The lack of anticorrelation between western and eastern TIO SSTA occurs only in this latter half of the analysis period. In order to examine the hypothesis that the IOD is a part of ENSO evolution in the TIO, the temporal

A Hydrological Definition of Indian Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal

Abstract: A diagnostic criterion that retrospectively assesses the onset and withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon is derived from variability in the large-scale hydrologic cycle. The method is proposed as an improved means with which to understand interannual variability in the monsoon transitions as compared to criteria that rely heavily on rainfall variability over limited spatial domains (e.g., individual Indian districts). The hydrologic cycle is chosen as a key physical basis for monitoring the monsoon due to the essential roles played by zonal and meridional gradients in water vapor, clouds, and rainfall in driving the large-scale monsoon circulation. Moreover, as rainfall is greater than evaporation in wet monsoonal areas, lateral transports of water vapor are required for the existence of monsoonal rains. To diagnose onset and withdrawal, vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) is therefore used instead of rainfall, which over the large scale is often poorly measured and modeled. In contrast to rainfall, VIMT is generally well modeled and observed, and its variability, particularly over the Arabian Sea, is substantial during both monsoon onset and withdrawal. An index, named the hydrologic onset and withdrawal index (HOWI), is thus formed from those regions where VIMT variability is pronounced at the beginning and end of the monsoon season. The HOWI offers several advantages as the index is based on fields that are better modeled and measured than rainfall, and the index is indicative of the transition in the largescale monsoon circulation rather than being highly sensitive to synoptic variability and the spatial complexity of the monsoon transitions. The HOWI is shown to be both robust to bogus monsoon onsets and reflective of the timing, rather than the spatial character, of the transitions. Analysis of interannual variability in monsoon onset and withdrawal dates based on the HOWI reveals robust associations that are weak and insignificant when assessed using other onset criteria. For example, the associations between total June‐July‐August‐September (JJAS) rainfall and both monsoon onset and withdrawal are weak (correlations are weaker than 20.11) when onset dates from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) or other objective methods are considered. However, the HOWI criterion shows strong correlations between total JJAS rainfall and both onset (0.30) and withdrawal (20.49). Thus, the length of the monsoon season is shown to be strongly related to its overall strength. In addition, while the correlation between IMD onset date and

Assessment of Urban Versus Rural In Situ Surface Temperatures in the Contiguous United States: No Difference Found

Abstract: All analyses of the impact of urban heat islands (UHIs) on in situ temperature observations suffer from inhomogeneities or biases in the data. These inhomogeneities make urban heat island analyses difficult and can lead to erroneous conclusions. To remove the biases caused by differences in elevation, latitude, time of observation, instrumentation, and nonstandard siting, a variety of adjustments were applied to the data. The resultant data were the most thoroughly homogenized and the homogeneity adjustments were the most rigorously evaluated and thoroughly documented of any large-scale UHI analysis to date. Using satellite night-lights–derived urban/rural metadata, urban and rural temperatures from 289 stations in 40 clusters were compared using data from 1989 to 1991. Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures. It is postulated that this is due to micro- and local-scale impacts dominating over the mesoscale ur...