According to W. Edwards Deming, American companies require nothing less than a transformation of management style and of governmental relations with industry. In Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982, Deming offers a theory of management based on his famous 14 Points for Management. Management's failure to plan for the future, he claims, brings about loss of market, which brings about loss of jobs. Management must be judged not only by the quarterly dividend, but by innovative plans to stay in business, protect investment, ensure future dividends, and provide more jobs through improved product and service. In simple, direct language, he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.

Out of the Crisis

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Objectives: Lao Juan (LJ, 劳倦) is a syndrome described in Chinese medicine (CM) that manifests with : Lao Juan (LJ, 劳倦) is a syndrome described in Chinese medicine (CM) that manifests with fatigue, fever, spontaneous sweating, indigestion, work-induced pain, weakness of the limbs, and shortness of breath. fatigue, fever, spontaneous sweating, indigestion, work-induced pain, weakness of the limbs, and shortness of breath. The present study was conducted to examine the reliability and validity of a Lao Juan Questionnaire (LJQ). The present study was conducted to examine the reliability and validity of a Lao Juan Questionnaire (LJQ). Methods: A total of 151 outpatients and 73 normal subjects were asked to complete the LJQ. Seventy-three normal subjects A total of 151 outpatients and 73 normal subjects were asked to complete the LJQ. Seventy-three normal subjects were additionally asked to complete the Chalder Fatigue Scale (CFS). Twelve clinicians determined whether the were additionally asked to complete the Chalder Fatigue Scale (CFS). Twelve clinicians determined whether the 151 outpatients exhibited LJ or not. The internal consistency and construct validity for the LJQ were estimated using 151 outpatients exhibited LJ or not. The internal consistency and construct validity for the LJQ were estimated using data from the outpatient subjects. The CFS data were used to examine the concurrent validity of the LJQ. Total LJQ data from the outpatient subjects. The CFS data were used to examine the concurrent validity of the LJQ. Total LJQ scores and the clinicians' diagnoses of the outpatients were used to perform receiver operating characteristics (ROC) scores and the clinicians' diagnoses of the outpatients were used to perform receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analyses and to defi ne an optimum cut-off score for the LJQ. curve analyses and to defi ne an optimum cut-off score for the LJQ. Results: The 19-item LJQ had satisfactory internal : The 19-item LJQ had satisfactory internal consistency (α=0.828) and concurrent validity, with signifi cant correlations between the LJQ and the CFS subscales. consistency (α=0.828) and concurrent validity, with signifi cant correlations between the LJQ and the CFS subscales. In the test of construct validity using principal component analysis, a total of six factors were extracted, and the overall In the test of construct validity using principal component analysis, a total of six factors were extracted, and the overall variance explained by all factors was 59.5%. In ROC curve analyses, the sensitivity, specifi city, and area under the variance explained by all factors was 59.5%. In ROC curve analyses, the sensitivity, specifi city, and area under the curve were 76.0%, 59.2%, and 0.709, respectively. The optimum cut-off score was defi ned as six points. curve were 76.0%, 59.2%, and 0.709, respectively. The optimum cut-off score was defi ned as six points. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the LJQ is a reliable and valid instrument for evaluating LJ. Our results suggest that the LJQ is a reliable and valid instrument for evaluating LJ. KEYWORDS Chinese medicine, chronic fatigue syndrome, Chinese medicine-pattern Chinese medicine, chronic fatigue syndrome, Chinese medicine-pattern

Development and Validation of A

A wide variety of media can be used in learning, including distance learning, such as print, lectures, conference sections, tutors, pictures, video, sound, and computers. Any one instance of distance learning will make choices among these media, perhaps using several.

Multimedia in Learning

Summary This paper discusses the thought processes involved in statistical problem solving in the broad sense from problem formulation to conclusions. It draws on the literature and in-depth interviews with statistics students and practising statisticians aimed at uncovering their statistical reasoning processes. From these interviews, a four-dimensional framework has been identified for statistical thinking in empirical enquiry. It includes an investigative cycle, an interrogative cycle, types of thinking and dispositions. We have begun to characterise these processes through models that can be used as a basis for thinking tools or frameworks for the enhancement of problem-solving. Tools of this form would complement the mathematical models used in analysis and address areas of the process of statistical investigation that the mathematical models do not, particularly areas requiring the synthesis of problem-contextual and statistical understanding. The central element of published definitions of statistical thinking is "variation". We further discuss the role of variation in the statistical conception of real-world problems, including the search for causes.

/pdf/statistical-thinking-in-empirical-enquiry-4p463muk65.pdf

Statistical Thinking in Empirical Enquiry

Towards an understanding of statistical thinking

Summary. There is a compelling case, based on research in statistics education, for first courses in statistical inference to be underpinned by a staged development path. Preferably over a number of years, students should begin working with precursor forms of statistical inference, much earlier than they now do. A side benefit is giving younger students more straightforward and more satisfying ways of answering interesting real world questions. We discuss the issues that are involved in formulating precursor versions of inference and then present some specific and highly visual proposals. These build on novel ways of experiencing sampling variation and have intuitive connections to the standard formal methods of making inferences in first university courses in statistics. Our proposal uses visual comparisons to enable the inferential step to be made without taking the eyes off relevant graphs of the data. This allows the time and conceptual distances between questions, data and conclusions to be minimized, so that the most critical linkages can be made. Our approach was devised for use in high schools but is also relevant to adult education and some introductory tertiary courses.

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00678.x

Towards more accessible conceptions of statistical inference

Students often struggle with describing the shape of different data distributions as they are distracted by the noise and do not ‘see’ the signal. Their attention is drawn to the actual outline of the distribution rather than an inferred distributional shape. In this chapter, we describe part of an instructional sequence for learning about shape starting with large data distributions. The instruction was trialled in a year 10 class (age 14) and included a focus on developing the language of shape for describing distributions and identifying key features for description. Responses from pre- and post-tests are briefly discussed and a proposed framework for describing distributions is presented.

The Language of Shape

Drawing conclusions from the comparison of datasets using informal statistical inference is a challenging task since the nature and type of reasoning expected is not fully understood. In this paper a secondary teacher’s reasoning from the comparison of box plot distributions during the teaching of a Year 11 (15-year-old) class is analyzed. From the analysis a model incorporating ten distinguishable elements is established to describe her reasoning. The model highlights that reasoning in the sampling and referent elements is ill formed. The methods of instruction, and the difficulties and richness of verbalizing from the comparison of box plot distributions are discussed. Implications for research and educational practice are drawn.

/pdf/comparing-box-plot-distributions-a-teacher-s-reasoning-1yd4mgv07x.pdf

Maxine Pfannkuch

Papers

Statistical Thinking in Empirical Enquiry

Towards an understanding of statistical thinking

Towards more accessible conceptions of statistical inference

The Language of Shape

Comparing Box Plot Distributions: A Teacher's Reasoning.