Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach.

Rainfall variability exceedingly affects agriculture in Ethiopia, particularly in the eastern region where rainfall is relatively scarce. Hence, understanding the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall is indispensable for planning mitigation measures during high and low rainfall seasons. This study examined the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall in the West Harerge Zone, eastern Ethiopia. The coefficient of variation (CV) and standardized anomaly index (SAI) were used to analyze rainfall variability while Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slop estimator were employed to examine the trend and magnitude of the rainfall changes, respectively. The association between rainfall and Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was also evaluated by Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The annual rainfall CV during 1983–2019 periods is between 12 and 19.36% while the seasonal rainfall CV extends from 15–28.49%, 24–35.58%, and 38–75.9% for average Kiremt (June–September), Belg (February–May), and Bega (October–January) seasons, respectively (1983–2019). On the monthly basis, the trends of rainfall decreased in all months except in July, October, and November. However, the trends were not statistically significant (α = 0.05), unlike in November. On a seasonal basis, the trends of mean Kiremt and Belg seasons rainfall decreased while it increased in Bega season although it is not statistically significant. Moreover, the annual rainfall showed a non-significant decreasing trend. The findings also revealed that the correlation between rainfall and Pacific Ocean SST was negative for Kiremt while positive for Belg and Bega seasons. Besides, annual rainfall and Pacific Ocean SST was negatively correlated. High spatial and temporal rainfall variability was observed at the monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. Seasonal rainfall has high inter-annual variability in the dry season (Bega) than other seasons. The trends in rainfall were decreased in most of the months. Besides, the trend of rainfall decreased in the annual, Belg and Kiremt season while increased in the Bega season. The study also indicated that the occurrence of droughts in the study area was associated with ENSO events like most other parts of Ethiopia and East Africa.

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Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and its association with Pacific Ocean Sea surface temperature in West Harerge Zone, Eastern Ethiopia

Climate analysis at relevant time scales is important for water resources management, agricultural planning, flood risk assessment, ecological modeling and climate change adaptation. This study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia. Our analysis is focused on describing spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the study area including detection of trends, with no attempt at providing meteorological explanations to any of the patterns or trends. The study is based on gridded monthly rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data series at a resolution of 4 × 4 km which were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia for the period 1983–2016. The study area is represented by 558 points (each point representing 4 × 4 km area). Mean annual rainfall of the watershed is > 1600 mm. Annual, June–September (Kiremt), March–May (Belg) rainfall totals exhibit low inter-annual variability. Annual and October-February (Bega) rainfalls show statistically significant increasing trends at p = 0.01 level. May and November rainfall show statistically significant increasing trends at p = 0.01 level. March shows statistically significant decreasing trend at p = 0.1 level. The mean annual temperature of the watershed is 25 °C with standard deviation of 0.31 °C and coefficient of variation of 0.01 °C. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures show statistically non-significant decreasing trends. Bega season experienced statistically significant deceasing trend in the maximum temperature at p = 0.01 level. The year-to-year variability in the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures showed that the 2000s is cooler than the preceding decades. Unlike our expectations, annual and seasonal rainfall totals showed increasing trends while maximum and minimum temperatures showed decreasing trends. Our results suggest that local level investigations such as this one are important in developing context-specific climate change adaptation and agricultural planning, instead of coarse-scale national level analysis guiding local level decisions.

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Spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia

This study aims at characterizing agricultural drought in Ethiopia and understanding the effects of drought on crop yield. Monthly, seasonal and annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)...

https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8722434/file/8722795.pdf

Assessing the spatio-temporal variability of NDVI and VCI as indices of crops productivity in Ethiopia: a remote sensing approach

This paper summarises the performance indicators currently used in the Research Program on Irrigation Performance (RPIP).Within this Program field data are measured and collected to quantify andtest about 40 multidisciplinary performance indicators. These indicatorscover water delivery, water use efficiency, maintenance, sustainability ofirrigation, environmental aspects, socio-economics and management. Theindicators now are sufficiently mature to be recommended for use inirrigation and drainage performance assessment.

Performance indicators for irrigation and drainage

With climate change prevailing around the world, understanding the changes in long-term annual and seasonal rainfall at local scales is very important in planning for required adaptation measures. This is especially true for areas such as the Awash River basin where there is very high dependence on rain- fed agriculture characterized by frequent droughts and subsequent famines. The aim of the study is to analyze long-term trends of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Monthly rainfall data extracted from Climatic Research Unit (CRU 4.01) dataset for 54 grid points representing the entire basin were aggregated to find the respective areal annual and seasonal rainfall time series for the entire basin and its seven sub-basins. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen Slope estimator were applied to the time series for detecting the trends and for estimating the rate of change, respectively. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction, data analyses, and plotting. Geographic information system (GIS) package was also used for grid making, site selection, and mapping. The results showed that no significant trend (at α = 0.05) was identified in annual rainfall in all sub-basins and over the entire basin in the period (1902 to 2016). However, the results for seasonal rainfall are mixed across the study areas. The summer rainfall (June through September) showed significant decreasing trend (at α ≤ 0.1) over five of the seven sub-basins at a rate varying from 4 to 7.4 mm per decade but it showed no trend over the two sub-basins. The autumn rainfall (October through January) showed no significant trends over four of the seven sub-basins but showed increasing trends over three sub-basins at a rate varying from 2 to 5 mm per decade. The winter rainfall (February through May) showed no significant trends over four sub-basins but showed significant increasing trends (at α ≤ 0.1) over three sub-basins at a rate varying from 0.6 to 2.7 mm per decade. At the basin level, the summer rainfall showed a significant decreasing trend (at α = 0.05) while the autumn and winter rainfall showed no significant trends. In addition, shift in some amount of summer rainfall to winter and autumn season was noticed. It is evident that climate change has shown pronounced effects on the trends and patterns of seasonal rainfall. Thus, the study contribute to better understanding of climate change in the basin and the information from the study can be used in planning for adaptation measures against a changing climate.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/7/1498/pdf

Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Irrigated agriculture, particularly small-scale irrigation (SSI), is a mainstay for sustainable livelihoods in the developing world. In Ethiopia, SSI sustainability is threatened mainly due to excessive sedimentation. Stakeholders’ perceptions of the causes of sedimentation and how they sustain SSI under excessive sedimentation conditions were investigated in two SSI schemes in Ethiopia. A participatory rapid diagnosis and action planning was implemented, consisting of a literature review, participatory rural appraisal, and semi-structured interviews. Results show that farmers slightly differed in perception of excessive sedimentation drivers. Farmers reported design problems as the main cause of excessive sedimentation (64%), followed by poor operation and maintenance (O and M) practices (21%) and external factors (15%). In contrast, 62% of the interviewed engineers indicated erosion and irrigation technologies as the main causes of excessive sedimentation, while few reported poor design (13%). In addition to an intensive desilting campaign, farmers delayed the start of the irrigation season to avoid the intake of highly sedimented water. Local social capital and knowledge appeared to be more important than formal knowledge and blue-print institutions for dealing with sedimentation problems. Well-organized structure and extra time devoted by famers were vital for SSI sustainability. Integration of the farmers’ knowledge with that of the engineers could yield more effective ways to deal with sedimentation problems.

https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/21/6121/pdf

Stakeholder Roles and Perspectives on Sedimentation Management in Small-Scale Irrigation Schemes in Ethiopia

Assessment of irrigation performances is very essential while planning and chalking out management strategies for various irrigation. However, in Ethiopia, especially Tigray, performance evaluation of irrigation schemes is rarely conducted. The performance of Tahtay Tsalit irrigation scheme was not assessed yet and hence, this research was undertaken to assess the hydraulic performance of the irrigation scheme. The study was carried out during the irrigation season from September to November, 2016. The field measurements on canal dimensions, water flow measurements and water surface elevation were undertaken at selected sampling points. Simple descriptive statistics was employed for analysis of the data collected from field measurements and observations. However, hydraulic performance indicators were used to evaluate the performance of this irrigation scheme. Several factors such as flooding, sedimentation, design problems, damage of sluice gates, abstraction of irrigation water by unwanted plants has been identified in this irrigation scheme for mal-functional of different irrigation structures. Hydraulic performance of the irrigation system was evaluated using ten hydraulic performance indicators. There was no problem in irrigation adequacy (0.84 fair), equity (fair), dependability (0.057 good) and efficiency (0.77 fair) of irrigation water in this irrigation scheme. The average water surface elevation ratio, delivery performance ratio, and delivery duration ratio of the main canal during the monitoring period was less than one, greater than 5 and 150%, respectively. The highest sediment accumulation was observed at head and middle reaches of the irrigation scheme than the tail reaches. Generally, in this irrigation scheme there were a number of irrigation structures which had mal-functioned, and now required to be remodeled with sustainable solution to improve the performance of the irrigation scheme. Hence, it has been recommended that capacity building and awareness creation for irrigation water users, water committee, Woreda and Kebelle expertise are the main key factor to bring a change in irrigation water managements.

	 

	Key words: Hydraulic structures, hydraulic performance, small scale irrigation scheme.

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Hydraulic performance assessment of Tahtay Tsalit small scale irrigation scheme, Tigray, Ethiopia

Performances assessment of irrigation schemes network is very essential in taking different water management strategies. However, the performance of Mychew irrigation scheme was not assessed and hence, this research was undertaken to assess the hydraulic performance of Mychew small scale irrigation scheme. Moreover, identification of the cause and effect for mal-functionality of irrigation structures was also another objective of this study. Hence, comprehensive field observations, measurements and focus group discussions were held to investigate hydraulic performance, cause and effect of failed hydraulic structures. Simple descriptive statistics was employed for analysis of the data collected from focus group discussions and observations. Eight performance indicators were used to assess the performance of this irrigation scheme. Several factors such as sedimentation, design problem, damage of sluice gates, abstraction of irrigation water by unwanted plants has been identified for mal-functionality of different structures. There were problems in irrigation adequacy (0.75) and equity (0.28) of irrigation water was categorized as poor, while good and fair for dependability (0.08) and irrigation efficiency (0.79), respectively. The average water surface elevation ratio, delivery performance ratio, and delivery duration ratio of the main canal during the monitoring period was less than one, greater than 5% and 150%, respectively. The highest sediment accumulation was observed at head and middle reaches of the irrigation scheme than the tail reaches. Generally, there were a number of irrigation structures which was mal-functioned in this irrigation scheme. Now it needs sustainable solution to improve the performance of the irrigation scheme. Therefore, it was recommended that water should be fairly distributed spatially and temporally. Additionally, capacity building and awareness creation to concerned bodies holds the key to bring a difference in irrigation water management in this irrigation scheme.

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Hydraulic Performance Assessment of Mychew Small Scale Irrigation Scheme, North Ethiopia

Excessive soil erosion hampers the functioning of many irrigation schemes throughout sub-Saharan Africa, increasing management difficulties and operation and maintenance costs. River water is often considered the main source of sedimentation, while overland sediment inflow is overlooked. From 2016 to 2018, participatory research was conducted to assess sediment influx in two irrigation schemes in Ethiopia. Sediment influx was simulated using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and compared to the amount of sediment removed during desilting campaigns. The sediment deposition rate was 308 m3/km and 1087 m3/km, respectively, for the Arata-Chufa and Ketar schemes. Spatial soil losses amounts to up to 18 t/ha/yr for the Arata-Chufa scheme and 41 t/ha/yr for the Ketar scheme. Overland sediment inflow contribution was significantly high in the Ketar scheme accounting for 77% of the deposited sediment, while only 4% of the sedimentation at the Arata-Chufa scheme came from overland flow. Feeder canal length and the absence of canal banks increased the sedimentation rate, however, this was overlooked by the stakeholders. We conclude that overland sediment inflow is an often neglected component of canal sedimentation, and this is a major cause of excessive sedimentation and management problems in numerous irrigation schemes in sub-Saharan Africa.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/13/1747/pdf

Mekonen Ayana

Papers

Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Stakeholder Roles and Perspectives on Sedimentation Management in Small-Scale Irrigation Schemes in Ethiopia

Hydraulic performance assessment of Tahtay Tsalit small scale irrigation scheme, Tigray, Ethiopia

Hydraulic Performance Assessment of Mychew Small Scale Irrigation Scheme, North Ethiopia

Sediment Influx and Its Drivers in Farmers’ Managed Irrigation Schemes in Ethiopia