Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity

The Personal Interview

A common approach to evaluating robustness to omitted variable bias is to observe coefficient movements after inclusion of controls. This is informative only if selection on observables is informative about selection on unobservables. Although this link is known in theory in existing literature, very few empirical articles approach this formally. I develop an extension of the theory that connects bias explicitly to coefficient stability. I show that it is necessary to take into account coefficient and R-squared movements. I develop a formal bounding argument. I show two validation exercises and discuss application to the economics literature. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence

This paper introduces endogenous and directed technical change in a growth model with environmental constraints. The final good is produced from “ dirty” and “ clean” inputs. We show that: (i) when inputs are sufficiently substitutable, sustainable growth can be achieved with temporary taxes/subsidies that redirect innovation toward clean inputs; (ii) optimal policy involves both “ carbon taxes” and research subsidies, avoiding excessive use of carbon taxes; (iii) delay in intervention is costly, as it later necessitates a longer transition phase with slow growth; and (iv) use of an exhaustible resource in dirty input production helps the switch to clean innovation under laissez-faire. (JEL O33, O44, Q30, Q54, Q56, Q58)

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The Environment and Directed Technical Change

Economic productivity is shown to peak at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and decline at high temperatures, indicating that climate change is expected to lower global incomes more than 20% by 2100. Temperature, and therefore climate change, can affect a country's economic productivity, but it has not been clear if rich and poor countries, or different aspects of economic productivity, show similar relationships. These authors use economic data from 166 countries for the years 1960 to 2010 to uncover a universal nonlinear relationship that reconciles earlier results. Economic productivity peaks at an annual average temperature of 13 °C, and the authors explore the likelihood of global economic contraction under future warming scenarios. Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies1,2, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries3,4. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature5, while poor countries respond only linearly5,6. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human–natural systems7,8 and to anticipating the global impact of climate change9,10. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change11,12, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

Recent advances in document image analysis (DIA) have been primarily driven by the application of neural networks. Ideally, research outcomes could be easily deployed in production and extended for further investigation. However, various factors like loosely organized codebases and sophisticated model configurations complicate the easy reuse of important innovations by a wide audience. Though there have been on-going efforts to improve reusability and simplify deep learning (DL) model development in disciplines like natural language processing and computer vision, none of them are optimized for challenges in the domain of DIA. This represents a major gap in the existing toolkit, as DIA is central to academic research across a wide range of disciplines in the social sciences and humanities. This paper introduces layoutparser, an open-source library for streamlining the usage of DL in DIA research and applications. The core layoutparser library comes with a set of simple and intuitive interfaces for applying and customizing DL models for layout detection, character recognition, and many other document processing tasks. To promote extensibility, layoutparser also incorporates a community platform for sharing both pre-trained models and full document digitization pipelines. We demonstrate that layoutparser is helpful for both lightweight and large-scale digitization pipelines in real-word use cases. The library is publicly available at this https URL.

LayoutParser: A Unified Toolkit for Deep Learning Based Document Image Analysis.

Thousands of users consult digital archives daily, but the information they can access is unrepresentative of the diversity of documentary history. The sequence-to-sequence architecture typically used for optical character recognition (OCR) - which jointly learns a vision and language model - is poorly extensible to low-resource document collections, as learning a language-vision model requires extensive labeled sequences and compute. This study models OCR as a character level image retrieval problem, using a contrastively trained vision encoder. Because the model only learns characters' visual features, it is more sample efficient and extensible than existing architectures, enabling accurate OCR in settings where existing solutions fail. Crucially, the model opens new avenues for community engagement in making digital history more representative of documentary history.

Efficient OCR for Building a Diverse Digital History

Many applications require grouping instances contained in diverse document datasets into classes. Most widely used methods do not employ deep learning and do not exploit the inherently multimodal nature of documents. Notably, record linkage is typically conceptualized as a string-matching problem. This study develops CLIPPINGS, (Contrastively Linking Pooled Pre-trained Embeddings), a multimodal framework for record linkage. CLIPPINGS employs end-to-end training of symmetric vision and language bi-encoders, aligned through contrastive language-image pre-training, to learn a metric space where the pooled image-text representation for a given instance is close to representations in the same class and distant from representations in different classes. At inference time, instances can be linked by retrieving their nearest neighbor from an offline exemplar embedding index or by clustering their representations. The study examines two challenging applications: constructing comprehensive supply chains for mid-20th century Japan through linking firm level financial records - with each firm name represented by its crop in the document image and the corresponding OCR - and detecting which image-caption pairs in a massive corpus of historical U.S. newspapers came from the same underlying photo wire source. CLIPPINGS outperforms widely used string matching methods by a wide margin and also outperforms unimodal methods. Moreover, a purely self-supervised model trained on only image-OCR pairs also outperforms popular string-matching methods without requiring any labels.

Linking Representations with Multimodal Contrastive Learning

This study examines how the historical state conditions long-run development, using Vietnam as a laboratory. Northern Vietnam (Dai Viet) was ruled by a strong centralized state in which the village was the fundamental administrative unit. Southern Vietnam was a peripheral tributary of the Khmer (Cambodian) Empire, which followed a patron-client model with weaker, more personalized power relations and no village intermediation. Using a regression discontinuity design across the Dai Viet-Khmer boundary, the study shows that areas historically under a strong state have higher living standards today and better economic outcomes over the past 150 years. Rich historical data document that in villages with a strong historical state, citizens have been better able to organize for public goods and redistribution through civil society and local government. This suggests that the strong historical state crowded in village-level collective action and that these norms persisted long after the original state disappeared.

The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic Development in Vietnam

In layout object detection problems, the ground-truth datasets are constructed by annotating object instances individually. Yet active learning for object detection is typically conducted at the image level, not at the object level. Because objects appear with different frequencies across images, image-level active learning may be subject to over-exposure to common objects. This reduces the efficiency of human labeling. This work introduces an Object-Level Active Learning based Layout Annotation framework, OLALA, which includes an object scoring method and a prediction correction algorithm. The object scoring method estimates the object prediction informativeness considering both the object category and the location. It selects only the most ambiguous object prediction regions within an image for annotators to label, optimizing the use of the annotation budget. For the unselected model predictions, we propose a correction algorithm to rectify two types of potential errors with minor supervision from ground-truths. The human annotated and model predicted objects are then merged as new image annotations for training the object detection models. In simulated labeling experiments, we show that OLALA helps to create the dataset more efficiently and report strong accuracy improvements of the trained models compared to image-level active learning baselines. The code is available at this https URL.

Melissa Dell

Papers

LayoutParser: A Unified Toolkit for Deep Learning Based Document Image Analysis.

Efficient OCR for Building a Diverse Digital History

Linking Representations with Multimodal Contrastive Learning

The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic Development in Vietnam

OLALA: Object-Level Active Learning Based Layout Annotation.