世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis, our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker--we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which we call social infrastructure. We treat social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language.

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Why Do Some Countries Produce so Much More Output Per Worker than Others

Does finance affect economic growth? A number of studies have identified a positive correlation between the level of development of a country's financial sector and the rate of growth of its per capita income. As has been noted elsewhere, the observed correlation does not necessarily imply a causal relationship. This paper examines whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing one rationale for such a relationship; that financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms. Specifically, we ask whether industrial sectors that are relatively more in need of external finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more developed financial markets. We find this to be true in a large sample of countries over the 1980s. We show this result is unlikely to be driven by omitted variables, outliers, or reverse causality.

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Financial Dependence and Growth

Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker—we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which we call social infrastructure. We treat social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language. In 1988 output per worker in the United States was more than 35 times higher than output per worker in Niger. In just over ten days the average worker in the United States produced as much as an average worker in Niger produced in an entire year. Explaining such vast differences in economic performance is one of the fundamental challenges of economics. Analysis based on an aggregate production function provides some insight into these differences, an approach taken by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil [1992] and Dougherty and Jorgenson [1996], among others. Differences among countries can be attributed to differences in human capital, physical capital, and productivity. Building on their analysis, our results suggest that differences in each element of the production function are important. In particular, however, our results emphasize the key role played by productivity. For example, consider the 35-fold difference in output per worker between the United States and Niger. Different capital intensities in the two countries contributed a factor of 1.5 to the income differences, while different levels of educational attainment contributed a factor of 3.1. The remaining difference—a factor of 7.7—remains as the productivity residual. * A previous version of this paper was circulated under the title ‘‘The Productivity of Nations.’’ This research was supported by the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford and by the National Science Foundation under grants SBR-9410039 (Hall) and SBR-9510916 (Jones) and is part of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth. We thank Bobby Sinclair for excellent research assistance and colleagues too numerous to list for an outpouring of helpful commentary. Data used in the paper are available online from http://www.stanford.edu/,chadj.

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Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others

The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic

Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community

We examine the effects of exposure to malaria in early childhood on educational attainment and economic status in adulthood by exploiting geographic variation in malaria prevalence in India prior to a nationwide eradication program in the 1950s. We find that the program led to modest increases in household per capita consumption for prime age men, and the effects for men are larger than those for women in most specifications. We find no evidence of increased educational attainment for men and mixed evidence for women.

/pdf/early-life-malaria-exposure-and-adult-outcomes-evidence-from-6gbjrxjho6.pdf

Early-life Malaria Exposure and Adult Outcomes: Evidence from Malaria Eradication in India

This paper provides experimental evidence on the impact of tracking primary school students by initial achievement In the presence of positive spillover effects from academically proficient peers, tracking may be beneficial for strong students but hurt weaker ones However, tracking may help everybody if heterogeneous classes make it difficult to teach at a level appropriate to most students We test these competing claims using a randomized evaluation in Kenya One hundred and twenty one primary schools which all had a single grade one class received funds to hire an extra teacher to split that class into two sections In 60 randomly selected schools, students were randomly assigned to sections In the remaining 61 schools, students were ranked by prior achievement (measured by their first term grades), and the top and bottom halves of the class were assigned to different sections After 18 months, students in tracking schools scored 014 standard deviations higher than students in non-tracking schools, and this effect persisted one year after the program ended Furthermore, students at all levels of the distribution benefited from tracking A regression discontinuity analysis shows that in tracking schools scores of students near the median of the pre-test distribution score are independent of whether they were assigned to the top or bottom section In contrast, in non-tracking schools we find that on average, students benefit from having academically stronger peers This suggests that tracking was beneficial because it helped teachers focus their teaching to a level appropriate to most students in the class

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=1311167

Peer Effects and the Impact of Tracking: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Kenya

Social commentators from William Julius Wilson to Charles Murray have argued that increased sorting people into internally homogeneous neighborhoods, schools, and marriages is spurring long- run inequality. Calibration of a formal model suggests that these fears are misplaced.

How Much Does Sorting Increase Inequality

Some commentators argue that increased sorting into internally homogeneous neighborhoods, schools, and marriages is radically polarizing society. Calibration of a formal model, however, suggests that the steady-state standard deviation of education would increase only 1.7 percent if the correlation between neighbors' education doubled, and would fall only 1.6 percent if educational sorting by neighborhood disappeared. The steady-state standard deviation of education would grow 1 percent if the correlation between spouses' education increased from 0.6 to 0.8. In fact, marital and neighborhood sorting have been stable, or even decreasing historically. Sorting has somewhat more significant effects on intergenerational mobility than on inequality.

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How Much does Sorting Increase Inequality

Past research suggests that congregating delinquent youth increases their likelihood of problem behavior. We test for analogous peer effects in the drug use and sexual behavior of male (n = 279) and female (n = 435) college students, using data on the characteristics of first-year roommates to whom they were randomly assigned. We find that males who reported binge drinking in high school drink much more in college if assigned a roommate who also binge drank in high school than if assigned a nonbinge-drinking roommate. No such multiplier effect is observed for females, nor are multiplier effects observed for marijuana use or sexual behavior for either males or females. Students who did not engage in these behaviors in high school do not appear to be affected by their roommates' high school behavior.

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Michael Kremer

Papers

Early-life Malaria Exposure and Adult Outcomes: Evidence from Malaria Eradication in India

Peer Effects and the Impact of Tracking: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Kenya

How Much Does Sorting Increase Inequality

How Much does Sorting Increase Inequality

Peer effects in drug use and sex among college students