Michael Lawrence

TL;DR: The past 25 years has seen a phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement as discussed by the authors.

TL;DR: In this article, a detailed analysis revealed that, while the relatively larger adjustments tended to lead to greater average improvements in accuracy, the smaller adjustments often damaged accuracy, and positive adjustments which involved adjusting the forecast upwards, were much less likely to improve accuracy than negative adjustments.

TL;DR: The purpose of the M2-Competition is to determine the post sample accuracy of various forecasting methods and the MZCompetition consisted of distributing 29 actual series to five forecasters, which covered information including the September figures of the year involved.

TL;DR: The results indicate that the user perception of representation is the most significant influence on user satisfaction-the correlation scores for the two systems studied were in excess of 0.6.

TL;DR: The authors empirically examined the improvement in accuracy which can be gained from combining judgemental forecasts, either with other judgemental or with quantitatively derived forecasts, and found that combining forecasts are more accurate than single forecasts with the greatest benefit realised at short forecast horizons and for easier as opposed to harder forecast series.