[신간의 별자리x] 우리/미술, 그리고 ‘슬픔의 박물관’

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Summary. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods have emerged as the two main tools to sample from high dimensional probability distributions. Although asymptotic convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms is ensured under weak assumptions, the performance of these algorithms is unreliable when the proposal distributions that are used to explore the space are poorly chosen and/or if highly correlated variables are updated independently. We show here how it is possible to build efficient high dimensional proposal distributions by using sequential Monte Carlo methods. This allows us not only to improve over standard Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes but also to make Bayesian inference feasible for a large class of statistical models where this was not previously so. We demonstrate these algorithms on a non-linear state space model and a Levy-driven stochastic volatility model.

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2009.00736.x

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

In recent years, several methods have been proposed to combine multiple kernels instead of using a single one. These different kernels may correspond to using different notions of similarity or may be using information coming from multiple sources (different representations or different feature subsets). In trying to organize and highlight the similarities and differences between them, we give a taxonomy of and review several multiple kernel learning algorithms. We perform experiments on real data sets for better illustration and comparison of existing algorithms. We see that though there may not be large differences in terms of accuracy, there is difference between them in complexity as given by the number of stored support vectors, the sparsity of the solution as given by the number of used kernels, and training time complexity. We see that overall, using multiple kernels instead of a single one is useful and believe that combining kernels in a nonlinear or data-dependent way seems more promising than linear combination in fusing information provided by simple linear kernels, whereas linear methods are more reasonable when combining complex Gaussian kernels.

/pdf/multiple-kernel-learning-algorithms-1g9yb2tdr5.pdf

Multiple Kernel Learning Algorithms

The paper proposes Metropolis adjusted Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling methods defined on the Riemann manifold to resolve the shortcomings of existing Monte Carlo algorithms when sampling from target densities that may be high dimensional and exhibit strong correlations. The methods provide fully automated adaptation mechanisms that circumvent the costly pilot runs that are required to tune proposal densities for Metropolis-Hastings or indeed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithms. This allows for highly efficient sampling even in very high dimensions where different scalings may be required for the transient and stationary phases of the Markov chain. The methodology proposed exploits the Riemann geometry of the parameter space of statistical models and thus automatically adapts to the local structure when simulating paths across this manifold, providing highly efficient convergence and exploration of the target density. The performance of these Riemann manifold Monte Carlo methods is rigorously assessed by performing inference on logistic regression models, log-Gaussian Cox point processes, stochastic volatility models and Bayesian estimation of dynamic systems described by non-linear differential equations. Substantial improvements in the time-normalized effective sample size are reported when compared with alternative sampling approaches. MATLAB code that is available from http://www.ucl.ac.uk/statistics/research/rmhmc allows replication of all the results reported.

Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods

Energy disaggregation (a.k.a nonintrusive load monitoring, NILM), a single-channel blind source separation problem, aims to decompose the mains which records the whole house electricity consumption into appliance-wise readings. This problem is difficult because it is inherently unidentifiable. Recent approaches have shown that the identifiability problem could be reduced by introducing domain knowledge into the model. Deep neural networks have been shown to be a promising approach for these problems, but sliding windows are necessary to handle the long sequences which arise in signal processing problems, which raises issues about how to combine predictions from different sliding windows. In this paper, we propose sequence-to-point learning, where the input is a window of the mains and the output is a single point of the target appliance. We use convolutional neural networks to train the model. Interestingly, we systematically show that the convolutional neural networks can inherently learn the signatures of the target appliances, which are automatically added into the model to reduce the identifiability problem. We applied the proposed neural network approaches to real-world household energy data, and show that the methods achieve state-of-the-art performance, improving two standard error measures by 84% and 92%.

Sequence-to-point learning with neural networks for nonintrusive load monitoring

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) is a technique to recover source appliances from only the recorded mains in a household. NILM is unidentifiable and thus a challenge problem because the inferred power value of an appliance given only the mains could not be unique. To mitigate the unidentifiable problem, various methods incorporating domain knowledge into NILM have been proposed and shown effective experimentally. Recently, among these methods, deep neural networks are shown performing best. Arguably, the recently proposed sequence-to-point (seq2point) learning is promising for NILM. However, the results were only carried out on the same data domain. It is not clear if the method could be generalised or transferred to different domains, e.g., the test data were drawn from a different country comparing to the training data. We address this issue in the paper, and two transfer learning schemes are proposed, i.e., appliance transfer learning (ATL) and cross-domain transfer learning (CTL). For ATL, our results show that the latent features learnt by a ‘complex’ appliance, e.g., washing machine, can be transferred to a ‘simple’ appliance, e.g., kettle. For CTL, our conclusion is that the seq2point learning is transferable. Precisely, when the training and test data are in a similar domain, seq2point learning can be directly applied to the test data without fine tuning; when the training and test data are in different domains, seq2point learning needs fine tuning before applying to the test data. Interestingly, we show that only the fully connected layers need fine tuning for transfer learning. Source code can be found at https://github.com/MingjunZhong/transferNILM .

/pdf/transfer-learning-for-non-intrusive-load-monitoring-3f3wdl9kp3.pdf

Transfer Learning for Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring

Energy disaggregation (a.k.a nonintrusive load monitoring, NILM), a single-channel blind source separation problem, aims to decompose the mains which records the whole house electricity consumption into appliance-wise readings. This problem is difficult because it is inherently unidentifiable. Recent approaches have shown that the identifiability problem could be reduced by introducing domain knowledge into the model. Deep neural networks have been shown to be a promising approach for these problems, but sliding windows are necessary to handle the long sequences which arise in signal processing problems, which raises issues about how to
combine predictions from different sliding windows. In this paper, we propose sequence-to-point learning, where the input is a window of the mains and the output is a single point of the target appliance. We use convolutional neural networks to train the model. Interestingly, we systematically show that the convolutional neural networks can inherently learn the signatures of the target appliances, which are automatically added into the model to reduce the identifiability problem. We applied
the proposed neural network approaches to real-world household energy data, and show that the methods achieve state-of-the-art performance, improving two standard error measures by 84% and 92%.

/pdf/sequence-to-point-learning-with-neural-networks-for-non-1mhm2hd6w7.pdf

Sequence-to-Point Learning with Neural Networks for Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring

http://people.rennes.inria.fr/Anatole.Lecuyer/prl08_zhong.pdf

Classifying EEG for brain computer interfaces using Gaussian processes

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) or energy disaggregation is the task of separating the household energy measured at the aggregate level into constituent appliances. In 2014, the NILM toolkit (NILMTK) was introduced in an effort towards making NILM research reproducible. Despite serving as the reference library for data set parsers and reference benchmark algorithm implementations, few publications presenting algorithmic contributions within the field went on to contribute implementations back to the toolkit. This paper describes two significant contributions to the NILM community in an effort towards reproducible state-of-the-art research: i) a rewrite of the disaggregation API and a new experiment API which lower the barrier to entry for algorithm developers and simplify the definition of algorithm comparison experiments, and ii) the release of NILMTK-contrib; a new repository containing NILMTK-compatible implementations of 3 benchmarks and 9 recent disaggregation algorithms. We have performed an extensive empirical evaluation using a number of publicly available data sets across three important experiment scenarios to showcase the ease of performing reproducible research in NILMTK.

Mingjun Zhong

Papers

Sequence-to-point learning with neural networks for nonintrusive load monitoring

Transfer Learning for Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring

Sequence-to-Point Learning with Neural Networks for Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring

Classifying EEG for brain computer interfaces using Gaussian processes

Towards reproducible state-of-the-art energy disaggregation