In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Mortality after all major types of osteoporotic fracture in men and women: an observational study

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a severe, progressive disease that aff ects 1 in 3600–6000 live male births. Although guidelines are available for various aspects of DMD, comprehensive clinical care recommendations do not exist. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention selected 84 clinicians to develop care recommendations using the RAND Corporation–University of California Los Angeles Appropriateness Method. The DMD Care Considerations Working Group evaluated assessments and interventions used in the management of diagnostics, gastroenterology and nutrition, rehabilitation, and neuromuscular, psychosocial, cardiovascular, respiratory, orthopaedic, and surgical aspects of DMD. These recommendations, presented in two parts, are intended for the wide range of practitioners who care for individuals with DMD. They provide a framework for recognising the multisystem primary manifestations and secondary complications of DMD and for providing coordinated multidisciplinary care. In part 1 of this Review, we describe the methods used to generate the recommendations, and the overall perspective on care, pharmacological treatment, and psychosocial management.

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Diagnosis and management of Duchenne muscular dystrophy, part 1: diagnosis, and pharmacological and psychosocial management

Interest is increasing in quantifying the magnitude and duration of excess mortality after hip fractures for use in cost-effectiveness analyses of strategies for hip fracture prevention (1-3). Although an increased risk for death after hip fracture is well established in both women and men, it is unclear whether this excess mortality persists over time (4).

Although almost all studies have reported an increased risk for death in the first 3 to 6 months after injury, results from long-term (5- to 10-year) follow-up have been conflicting, with some studies finding persistent excess mortality and others finding none (5-8). These conflicting results have several potential causes, including differences in control populations, difficulties in comparing crude and adjusted mortality statistics, and differences in model covariates (4-6, 9-16). At longer follow-up, the number of patients at risk and therefore the number of events (deaths) provide limited statistical power (17). An additional source of variability occurs in time-to-event (survival) analyses when the mortality risk is not constant over time and follow-up varies across the cohorts (17, 18). Because of these factors, reported hazard estimates are varied and have wide CIs, limiting any inferences physicians or public health policymakers can make. Further drawbacks include limited sample size, low frequency of observations, lack of stratification by sex, and reporting relative rather than absolute risks (17, 19, 20).

We summarize longitudinal evidence about the magnitude and duration of excess mortality after hip fracture in older men and women.

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Meta-analysis: Excess Mortality After Hip Fracture Among Older Women and Men

Vitamin D: modulator of the immune system.

Summary We performed a meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies on serum 25(OH)D status globally. Serum 25(OH)D levels on average were 54 nmol/l, were higher in women than men, and higher in Caucasians than in non-Caucasians. There was no trend in serum 25(OH)D level with latitude. Vitamin D deficiency was widespread.

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Global vitamin D levels in relation to age, gender, skin pigmentation and latitude: an ecologic meta-regression analysis.

A prospective randomized study was carried out to investigate whether the addition of manual lymphatic drainage (MLD) to the standard therapy could improve treatment outcome in women with lymphedema of the ipsilateral arm after breast cancer treatment. Forty-two patients were randomly assigned to receive standard therapy or standard therapy plus MLD 8 times in 2 weeks and training in self-massage. The standard therapy consisted of use of a compression garment, exercises and information about lymphedema and skin care. The efficacy of treatment was evaluated by reduction in lymphedema volume during treatment and by improvement in symptoms potentially related to lymphedema. The patients were followed-up for a total of 12 months. The study showed that both groups obtained a significant reduction in edema and that MLD did not contribute significantly to reduce edema volume.

Treatment of breast-cancer-related lymphedema with or without manual lymphatic drainage--a randomized study.

During a 16-year period, 256 second hip fractures were found in 3898 persons 40 years of age and older who had a previous hip fracture. Ninety-two percent of the second fractures were contralateral, and 68% of these were the same type as the first. Thus, 62% of the femoral neck and 72% of the trochanteric fractures were preceded by a contralateral fracture of the same type. The mean interval between fractures was 3.3 years, and there was no significant difference between genders or among fracture types. The risk of the first fracture was 1.6 per 1000 men per year and 3.6 per 1000 women, and for the second fracture 15 per 1000 men per year and 22 per 1000 women. This increase was highly significant for both genders, especially for men.

Occurrence and incidence of the second hip fracture.

Between 1970 and 1985, a total of 3,895 persons > or = 40 years of age were treated for hip fracture in a Danish municipality. The female: male ratio was 2.7. The cumulative survival was estimated and compared with that of the age- and sex-matched general population. The analysis showed that (a) the mortality was increased compared with the expected mortality, especially during the first year (19% for women, 25% for men), but a statistically significant excess mortality could be demonstrated up to 10 years after a hip fracture; (b) the mortality increased with age, even after adjustment for the expected higher mortality of the elderly; and (c) the mortality was higher for men than for women, even after adjustment for the expected higher mortality of males. This difference was already present after the first 2 weeks among patients > or = 70 years of age. Language: en

Age and Sex as Determinants of Mortality After Hip Fracture: 3,895 Patients Followed for 2.5–18.5 Years

Accurate noninvasive quantitation of blood flow, cross-sectional lumen vessel area and wall shear stress by three-dimensional paraboloid modeling of magnetic resonance imaging velocity data ☆

Mogens Erlandsen

Papers

Global vitamin D levels in relation to age, gender, skin pigmentation and latitude: an ecologic meta-regression analysis.

Treatment of breast-cancer-related lymphedema with or without manual lymphatic drainage--a randomized study.

Occurrence and incidence of the second hip fracture.

Age and Sex as Determinants of Mortality After Hip Fracture: 3,895 Patients Followed for 2.5–18.5 Years

Accurate noninvasive quantitation of blood flow, cross-sectional lumen vessel area and wall shear stress by three-dimensional paraboloid modeling of magnetic resonance imaging velocity data ☆