Showing papers by "Nancy Padian published in 1986"
TL;DR: The results indicate that the vaginal canal under certain conditions could be a source of transmission of ARV.
231 citations
TL;DR: A discrete, nonlinear model is presented and used to explore underlying biological and sociological characteristics of the AIDS outbreak and to forecast the number of new cases and suggests that the incidence of AIDS could level off or even decline from present levels before 1987.
42 citations
TL;DR: The potential for heterosexual transmission of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome related-retrovirus (ARV) infection from homosexual men to women would be through bisexual men, estimated from data available from the San Francisco Men's Health Study.
Abstract: To the Editor.— In recent months, concern over the possibility of heterosexual transmission of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome related-retrovirus (ARV) infection has increased. 1,2 A possible chain of transmission for ARV infection from homosexual men to women would be through bisexual men. The potential for such transmission can be estimated from data available from the San Francisco Men's Health Study, a prospective study of the epidemiology and natural history of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (supported by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases contract NO1-A1-32519). 3 Because the cohort is a probability sample, inferences can be extended to the entire population of single men in the study area. Of the 1,035 men aged 25 to 54 years in the cohort, 169 (16.3%) classified themselves as bisexual and 108 of them reported one or more female sexual partners during the previous two years. Table 1 indicates that 146 women were potentially
34 citations
TL;DR: It is questioned whether the ratio of male-to-female cases in Africa necessarily supports the hypothesis that AIDS is primarily spread in Africa by bidirectional heterosexual transmission.
Abstract: To the Editor.— The heterosexual transmission of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) from males to females is well documented in studies of female partners of hemophiliacs, 1 intravenous drug users, 2 and bisexual men (N.P. and W. Winkelstein, unpublished data). Sexual transmission from females to males is less well documented. Although we do not doubt that this phenomenon occurs, 3 we question whether the ratio of male-to-female cases in Africa necessarily supports the hypothesis that AIDS is primarily spread in Africa by bidirectional heterosexual transmission. The ratio of male-to-female AIDS cases varies geographically. In the United States, this ratio has been 13:1 since the beginning of the epidemic. 4 In Africa, the ratio is closer to unity, although not necessarily 1:1, eg, 1.1:1, 5 2:1. 6 An explanation that may account for some of this discrepancy is that data across continents are not always comparable, and that conditions such as medical
10 citations