Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Label noise is an important issue in classification, with many potential negative consequences. For example, the accuracy of predictions may decrease, whereas the complexity of inferred models and the number of necessary training samples may increase. Many works in the literature have been devoted to the study of label noise and the development of techniques to deal with label noise. However, the field lacks a comprehensive survey on the different types of label noise, their consequences and the algorithms that consider label noise. This paper proposes to fill this gap. First, the definitions and sources of label noise are considered and a taxonomy of the types of label noise is proposed. Second, the potential consequences of label noise are discussed. Third, label noise-robust, label noise cleansing, and label noise-tolerant algorithms are reviewed. For each category of approaches, a short discussion is proposed to help the practitioner to choose the most suitable technique in its own particular field of application. Eventually, the design of experiments is also discussed, what may interest the researchers who would like to test their own algorithms. In this paper, label noise consists of mislabeled instances: no additional information is assumed to be available like e.g., confidences on labels.

https://romisatriawahono.net/lecture/rm/survey/machine%20learning/Frenay%20-%20Classification%20in%20the%20Presence%20of%20Label%20Noise%20-%202014.pdf

Classification in the Presence of Label Noise: A Survey

The increasing use of wireless networks and the constant miniaturization of electrical devices has empowered the development of Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs). In these networks various sensors are attached on clothing or on the body or even implanted under the skin. The wireless nature of the network and the wide variety of sensors offer numerous new, practical and innovative applications to improve health care and the Quality of Life. The sensors of a WBAN measure for example the heartbeat, the body temperature or record a prolonged electrocardiogram. Using a WBAN, the patient experiences a greater physical mobility and is no longer compelled to stay in the hospital. This paper offers a survey of the concept of Wireless Body Area Networks. First, we focus on some applications with special interest in patient monitoring. Then the communication in a WBAN and its positioning between the different technologies is discussed. An overview of the current research on the physical layer, existing MAC and network protocols is given. Further, cross layer and quality of service is discussed. As WBANs are placed on the human body and often transport private data, security is also considered. An overview of current and past projects is given. Finally, the open research issues and challenges are pointed out.

/pdf/a-survey-on-wireless-body-area-networks-f3nx5ii4yv.pdf

A survey on wireless body area networks

Machine Learning (ML) methods have been proposed in the academic literature as alternatives to statistical ones for time series forecasting. Yet, scant evidence is available about their relative performance in terms of accuracy and computational requirements. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate such performance across multiple forecasting horizons using a large subset of 1045 monthly time series used in the M3 Competition. After comparing the post-sample accuracy of popular ML methods with that of eight traditional statistical ones, we found that the former are dominated across both accuracy measures used and for all forecasting horizons examined. Moreover, we observed that their computational requirements are considerably greater than those of statistical methods. The paper discusses the results, explains why the accuracy of ML models is below that of statistical ones and proposes some possible ways forward. The empirical results found in our research stress the need for objective and unbiased ways to test the performance of forecasting methods that can be achieved through sizable and open competitions allowing meaningful comparisons and definite conclusions.

/pdf/statistical-and-machine-learning-forecasting-methods-26re14073l.pdf

Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward.

In almost every scientific field, measurements are performed over time. These observations lead to a collection of organized data called time series. The purpose of time-series data mining is to try to extract all meaningful knowledge from the shape of data. Even if humans have a natural capacity to perform these tasks, it remains a complex problem for computers. In this article we intend to provide a survey of the techniques applied for time-series data mining. The first part is devoted to an overview of the tasks that have captured most of the interest of researchers. Considering that in most cases, time-series task relies on the same components for implementation, we divide the literature depending on these common aspects, namely representation techniques, distance measures, and indexing methods. The study of the relevant literature has been categorized for each individual aspects. Four types of robustness could then be formalized and any kind of distance could then be classified. Finally, the study submits various research trends and avenues that can be explored in the near future. We hope that this article can provide a broad and deep understanding of the time-series data mining research field.

/pdf/time-series-data-mining-4v2qvzp3ln.pdf

Time-series data mining

In this work we present a large scale comparison study for the major machine learning models for time series forecasting. Specifically, we apply the models on the monthly M3 time series competition data (around a thousand time series). There have been very few, if any, large scale comparison studies for machine learning models for the regression or the time series forecasting problems, so we hope this study would fill this gap. The models considered are multilayer perceptron, Bayesian neural networks, radial basis functions, generalized regression neural networks (also called kernel regression), K-nearest neighbor regression, CART regression trees, support vector regression, and Gaussian processes. The study reveals significant differences between the different methods. The best two methods turned out to be the multilayer perceptron and the Gaussian process regression. In addition to model comparisons, we have tested different preprocessing methods and have shown that they have different impacts on the pe...

An empirical comparison of machine learning models for time series forecasting

Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy is an important component in hotel revenue management systems. In this article, we propose a new Monte Carlo simulation approach for the arrivals and occupancy forecasting problem. In this approach, we simulate the hotel reservations process forward in time, and these future Monte Carlo paths will yield forecast densities. A key step for the faithful emulation of the reservations process is the accurate estimation of its parameters. We propose an approach for the estimation of these parameters from the historical data. Then, the reservations process will be simulated forward with all its constituent processes such as reservation arrivals, cancellations, length of stay, no shows, group reservations, seasonality, trend and so on. We considered as a case study the problem of forecasting room demand for Plaza Hotel, Alexandria, Egypt. The proposed model gives superior results compared to existing approaches.

http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~amir/hotelsim-JRPM.pdf

Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy using Monte Carlo simulation

Supervised learning models most commonly use crisp labels for classifier training. Crisp labels fail to capture the data characteristics when overlapping classes exist. In this work we attempt to compare between learning using soft and hard labels to train K-nearest neighbor classifiers. We propose a new technique to generate soft labels based on fuzzy-clustering of the data and fuzzy relabelling of cluster prototypes. Experiments were conducted on five data sets to compare between classifiers that learn using different types of soft labels and classifiers that learn with crisp labels. Results reveal that learning with soft labels is more robust against label errors opposed to learning with crisp labels. The proposed technique to find soft labels from the data, was also found to lead to a more robust training in most data sets investigated.

/pdf/a-study-of-the-robustness-of-knn-classifiers-trained-using-5e5nmlp4na.pdf

A study of the robustness of KNN classifiers trained using soft labels

Purpose – This paper aims to present an integrated framework for hotel revenue room maximization. The revenue management (RM) model presented in this work treats the shortcomings in existing systems. In particular, it extends existing optimization techniques for hotel revenue management to address group reservations and uses “forecasted demand” arrivals generated from the real data.Design/methodology/approach – The proposed forecasting module attempts to model the hotel reservation process from first principles. In particular, it models hotel arrivals as an interrelated process of stochastic parameters like reservations, cancellations, duration of stay, no shows, seasonality, trend, etc. and simulates forward in time the actual process of reservations to obtain the forecast. On the other hand, the proposed optimization module extends existing optimization techniques for hotel revenue management to address group reservations, while including integrality constraints and using “forecasted demand” arrivals ge...

An integrated framework for advanced hotel revenue management

Frauds are known to be dynamic and have no patterns, hence they are not easy to identify. Fraudsters use recent technological advancements to their advantage. They somehow bypass security checks, leading to the loss of millions of dollars. Analyzing and detecting unusual activities using data mining techniques is one way of tracing fraudulent transactions. transactions. This paper aims to benchmark multiple machine learning methods such as k-nearest neighbor (KNN), random forest and support vector machines (SVM), while the deep learning methods such as autoencoders, convolutional neural networks (CNN), restricted boltzmann machine (RBM) and deep belief networks (DBN). The datasets which will be used are the European (EU) Australian and German dataset. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and Cost of failure are the 3-evaluation metrics that would be used.

Neamat El Gayar

Papers

An empirical comparison of machine learning models for time series forecasting

Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy using Monte Carlo simulation

A study of the robustness of KNN classifiers trained using soft labels

An integrated framework for advanced hotel revenue management

Fraud Detection using Machine Learning and Deep Learning