世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as “subsistence” or “smallholder” farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

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The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.

This paper assesses the current state of evidence on the impact of trade policy reform on poverty in developing countries. There is little empirical evidence addressing this question directly, but a lot of related evidence on specific aspects. We summarize this evidence using an analytic framework addressing four key areas: economic growth and stability; households and markets; wages and employment and government revenue. Twelve key questions are identified and empirical studies and results are discussed. We argue that there is no simple generalizable conclusion about the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, and the picture is much less negative than is often suggested. In the long run and on average, trade liberalization is likely to be strongly poverty alleviating, and there is no convincing evidence that it will generally increase overall poverty or vulnerability. But there is evidence that the poor may be less well placed in the short run to protect themselves against adverse effects and take advantage of favorable opportunities.

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Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far

This paper reviews the evidence on smallholder market participation, with a focus on staple foodgrains (i.e., cereals) in eastern and southern Africa, in an effort to help better identify what interventions are most likely to break smallholders out of the semi-subsistence poverty trap that appears to ensnare much of rural Africa. The conceptual and empirical evidence suggests that interventions aimed at facilitating smallholder organization, at reducing the costs of intermarket commerce, and, perhaps especially, at improving poorer households’ access to improved technologies and productive assets are central to stimulating smallholder market participation and escape from semi-subsistence poverty traps. Macroeconomic and trade policy tools appear less useful in inducing market participation by poor smallholders in the region.

Smallholder market participation: concepts and evidence from Eastern and Southern Africa.

https://www.fao.org/uploads/media/Impact%20of%20contract%20farming%20on%20income_%20linking%20small%20farmers_%20packers_and%20supermarkets%20in%20China.pdf

Impact of Contract Farming on Income: Linking Small Farmers, Packers, and Supermarkets in China

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Transmission of World Food Price Changes to Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa

The long-term reduction of hunger and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the great challenges for the international development community. Eliminating hunger and promoting widespread growth in the region inevitably involves agriculture, given its central role in the region's economies. Over the past 20 years, most African governments have carried out reforms to deregulate agricultural markets and reduce the role of state enterprises. How much has the state actually withdrawn from agricultural markets? Have well-functioning private markets emerged? How successful were these reforms in boosting agricultural production, economic growth, and the incomes of the rural poor? What lessons can we learn from the reform process? The authors of this book address these questions through an analysis based on an extensive review of experiences with reform, focusing on three major agricultural markets: fertilizer, food crops and export crops. They examine the historical rationales for intervention, the factors contributing to reform, the process of implementation and the impact of the reforms on farmers and consumers in Sub-Saharan Africa. The authors find that reforms have had many favourable results, but that the impact has been muted by partial implementation and structural constraints. They propose a new agenda for promoting the development of agricultural markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, identifying areas where governments can play a supportive role. They argue that appropriate agricultural marketing policies and investments can improve livelihoods and the economic health of the region.

Reforming Agricultural Markets in Africa

Kenyan horticultural exports are often cited as a success story in African agriculture. Fruit and vegetable exports from Cote d’Ivoire have received less attention, but the export value is similar to that of Kenya. This paper focuses on three questions. First, do the horticultural sectors of Kenya and Cote d’Ivoire constitute valid success stories? Second, what factors have contributed to the success (or lack thereof)? And third, to what degree can the success be replicated in other African countries? The paper finds that Kenyan horticultural exports are indeed a success story: horticulture has become the third largest earner of foreign exchange, more than half the exports are produced by smallholders, and smallholders gain from producing for the export market. At the same time, the total number of smallholders producing for export is relatively small, and trends in European retailing may shift the advantage to larger producers. Cote d’Ivoire is not as clearly a success story because the most of the exports are produced on large industrial estates and because growth has been uneven. Ivorian exports rely on preferential access to European markets relative to Latin American exporters, raising doubts about sustainability. Factors in the growth and success of horticultural exports include a realistic exchange rate, stable policies, a good investment climate, competitive international transport connections, institutional, and social links with markets in Europe, and continual experimentation with the market institutions to link farmers and exporters. Smallholder participation is encouraged by farmer training and extension schemes, investment in small-scale irrigation, and assistance in establishing links with exporters. Many of the lessons of Kenyan horticulture can be applied elsewhere in Africa. Indeed, Kenya faces increasing competition from neighboring countries trying to replicate its success. At the same time, market institutions take time to develop, and demand constraints probably prevent other African countries from achieving the same level of success as Kenya. Keywords: horticulture, exports, Kenya, Cote d’Ivoire

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Are Horticultural Exports a Replicable Success Story? Evidence from Kenya and Côte d'Ivoire

1. Director, Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute. 2. Research Fellow, Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute. 3. Director, ILRI-IFPRI Joint Program on Livestock Market Opportunities and Senior Research Fellow, Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute. 4. Senior Research Assistant, Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute.

Nicholas Minot

Papers

Impact of Contract Farming on Income: Linking Small Farmers, Packers, and Supermarkets in China

Transmission of World Food Price Changes to Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa

Reforming Agricultural Markets in Africa

Are Horticultural Exports a Replicable Success Story? Evidence from Kenya and Côte d'Ivoire

Growth in high-value agriculture in Asia and the emergence of vertical links with farmers.