We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Much has been written about the measurement of socio-economic position (SEP) in high-income countries (HIC). Less has been written for an epidemiology, health systems and public health audience about the measurement of SEP in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The social stratification processes in many LMIC-and therefore the appropriate measurement tools-differ considerably from those in HIC. Many measures of SEP have been utilized in epidemiological studies; the aspects of SEP captured by these measures and the pathways through which they may affect health are likely to be slightly different but overlapping. No single measure of SEP will be ideal for all studies and contexts; the strengths and limitations of a given indicator are likely to vary according to the specific research question. Understanding the general properties of different indicators, however, is essential for all those involved in the design or interpretation of epidemiological studies. In this article, we describe the measures of SEP used in LMIC. We concentrate on measures of individual or household-level SEP rather than area-based or ecological measures such as gross domestic product. We describe each indicator in terms of its theoretical basis, interpretation, measurement, strengths and limitations. We also provide brief comparisons between LMIC and HIC for each measure.

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Measuring socio-economic position for epidemiological studies in low- and middle-income countries: a methods of measurement in epidemiology paper

This paper compares the structural approach to economic policy analysis with the program evaluation approach. It offers a third way to do policy analysis that combines the best features of both approaches. We illustrate the value of this alternative approach by making the implicit economics of LATE explicit, thereby extending the interpretability and range of policy questions that LATE can answer.

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Building Bridges Between Structural and Program Evaluation Approaches to Evaluating Policy

The numbers game.

Using newly available census data, the stock of international migrants is estimated at 247 million in 2013, significantly larger than the previous estimate of 232 million, and is expected to surpass 250 million in 2015. Migrants’ remittances to developing countries are estimated to have reached $436 billion in 2014, a 4.4 percent increase over the 2013 level. All developing regions recorded positive growth except Europe and Central Asia (ECA), where remittance flows contracted due to the deterioration of the Russian economy and the depreciation of the ruble. In 2015, however, the growth of remittance flows to developing countries is expected to moderate sharply to 0.9 percent to $440 billion, led by a 12.7 percent decline in ECA and slowdown in East Asia and the Pacific, Middle-East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The positive impact on flows of a robust recovery in the US will be partially offset by continued weakness in Europe, the impact of lower oil prices on the Russian economy, the strengthening of the US dollar, and tighter immigration controls in many source countries for remittances. Remittance flows are expected to recover in 2016 to reach $479 billion by 2017, in line with the more positive global economic outlook.

/pdf/migration-and-remittances-recent-developments-and-outlook-2rmky6n5za.pdf

Migration and remittances : recent developments and outlook

The population in East Asia and Pacific is aging rapidly, raising concerns about the implications for the region’s economic future. This report aims to crystallize what is known about the rapidly changing and diverse demographics of East Asian and Pacific countries. It documents policy frameworks on aging and explores the implications of alternative reform options. Its purpose is not only to provide a comprehensive review of aging in the region and associated policy responses, but also to encourage policy debate by facilitating comparison of policy regimes across the region. Aging raises many challenges and risks, which East Asian and Pacific countries are well positioned to manage - provided they make policy choices that promote appropriate behavioral change by households and employers. The overview is organized as follows: the first section reviews the demographic and epidemiological transitions in East Asia and Pacific. The second section discusses the living standards and other indicators of welfare of older people in the region, such as sources of support and living arrangements. The third section discusses the effects of aging on growth, the labor force, savings, and government budgets, and the ways in which countries can manage them. The fourth section looks at challenges facing pension, health, and long-term care systems. The final section provides some concluding thoughts.

Live long and prosper : aging in East Asia and Pacific

Lokshin, Umapathi, and Paternostro analyze the subjective perceptions of poverty in Madagascar in 2001 and their relationship to objective poverty indicators. They base their analysis on survey responses to a series of subjective perception questions. The authors extend the existing empirical methodology for estimating subjective poverty lines on the basis of categorical consumption adequacy questions. Based on this methodology they calculate the household-specific, subjective poverty lines and compare the poverty profiles derived from different subjective welfare questions. The results show that the aggregate poverty measures derived from consumption adequacy questions accord quite well with the poverty measures based on objective poverty lines. The subjective welfare analysis can be used in poor developing countries for evaluating socioeconomic and distributional impacts of various policy interventions. This paper - a product of the Poverty Team, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the relationship between subjective and objective economic welfare.

Robustness of Subjective Welfare Analysis in a Poor Developing Country: Madagascar 2001

https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/files/50251273/Manuscript_WD_2015_793_share.pdf

Unconditional Cash Transfers in China: Who Benefits from the Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee (Dibao) Program?

This paper estimates average and marginal returns to schooling in Indonesia using a non-parametric selection model estimated by local instrumental variables, and data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey. The analysis finds that the return to upper secondary schooling varies widely across individual: it can be as high as 50 percent per year of schooling for those very likely to enroll in upper secondary schooling, or as low as -10 percent for those very unlikely to do so. Returns to the marginal student (14 percent) are well below those for the average student attending upper secondary schooling (27 percent).

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Average and marginal returns to upper secondary schooling in Indonesia

This brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study, entitled Improving nutritional status through behavioral change : lessons from Madagascar, conducted between 1999 and 2002 in Madagascar. The study observed the impact of large-scale intervention that focuses on the quality of nutritional and child care inputs during the early stages of life. The empirical strategy uses a combination of double-difference and weighting estimators in a longitudinal survey to address the purposive placement of participating communities and estimates the effect of the availability of the program at the community level on nutritional outcomes on the child level. The program significantly improved weight for age z- scores and reduced the proportion of children who were underweight. The program improved the weight for age z-score by 0.15 to 0.22 standard deviations and reduced the incidence of underweight by 5.2 to 7.6 percentage points. The program also led to a significant reduction in stunting. The evidence suggests that these effects indicate significant impacts on longer-term nutritional outcomes. There is some heterogeneity in program impacts, more educated and wealthier mothers reap more benefits from the program. Funding for the study derived from the World Bank Research Grant Community Nutrition: Evaluation of Impacts in Africa.

/pdf/improving-nutritional-status-through-behavioral-change-jvjr7x1pd7.pdf

Nithin Umapathi

Papers

Live long and prosper : aging in East Asia and Pacific

Robustness of Subjective Welfare Analysis in a Poor Developing Country: Madagascar 2001

Unconditional Cash Transfers in China: Who Benefits from the Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee (Dibao) Program?

Average and marginal returns to upper secondary schooling in Indonesia

Improving nutritional status through behavioral change : lessons from Madagascar