世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307%2F3343168.pdf

Development as Freedom

. Reactive gases and aerosols are produced by terrestrial ecosystems, processed within plant canopies, and can then be emitted into the above-canopy atmosphere. Estimates of the above-canopy fluxes are needed for quantitative earth system studies and assessments of past, present and future air quality and climate. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) is described and used to quantify net terrestrial biosphere emission of isoprene into the atmosphere. MEGAN is designed for both global and regional emission modeling and has global coverage with ~1 km2 spatial resolution. Field and laboratory investigations of the processes controlling isoprene emission are described and data available for model development and evaluation are summarized. The factors controlling isoprene emissions include biological, physical and chemical driving variables. MEGAN driving variables are derived from models and satellite and ground observations. Tropical broadleaf trees contribute almost half of the estimated global annual isoprene emission due to their relatively high emission factors and because they are often exposed to conditions that are conducive for isoprene emission. The remaining flux is primarily from shrubs which have a widespread distribution. The annual global isoprene emission estimated with MEGAN ranges from about 500 to 750 Tg isoprene (440 to 660 Tg carbon) depending on the driving variables which include temperature, solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, and plant functional type. The global annual isoprene emission estimated using the standard driving variables is ~600 Tg isoprene. Differences in driving variables result in emission estimates that differ by more than a factor of three for specific times and locations. It is difficult to evaluate isoprene emission estimates using the concentration distributions simulated using chemistry and transport models, due to the substantial uncertainties in other model components, but at least some global models produce reasonable results when using isoprene emission distributions similar to MEGAN estimates. In addition, comparison with isoprene emissions estimated from satellite formaldehyde observations indicates reasonable agreement. The sensitivity of isoprene emissions to earth system changes (e.g., climate and land-use) demonstrates the potential for large future changes in emissions. Using temperature distributions simulated by global climate models for year 2100, MEGAN estimates that isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two. This is considerably greater than previous estimates and additional observations are needed to evaluate and improve the methods used to predict future isoprene emissions.

/pdf/estimates-of-global-terrestrial-isoprene-emissions-using-2inhk36wkp.pdf

Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors under-pinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear, predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience—the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop—as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options.

https://bioone.org/journals/AMBIO-A-Journal-of-the-Human-Environment/volume-31/issue-5/0044-7447-31.5.437/Resilience-and-Sustainable-Development--Building-Adaptive-Capacity-in-a/10.1579/0044-7447-31.5.437.pdf

Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations

Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes.

Successful adaptation to climate change across scales

Unsustainable tendencies in the co-evolution of human and natural systems have stimulated a search for new approaches to understanding complex problems of environment and development. Recently, attention has been drawn to the emergence of a new “sustainability science”, and core questions and research strategies have been proposed. A key challenge of sustainability is to examine the range of plausible future pathways of combined social and environmental systems under conditions of uncertainty, surprise, human choice and complexity. This requires charting new scientific territory and expanding the current global change research agenda. Scenario analysis—including new participatory and problem-oriented approaches—provides a powerful tool for integrating knowledge, scanning the future in an organized way and internalizing human choice into sustainability science.

The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis

The urgency of charting pathways to sustainability that keep human societies within a "safe operating space" has now been clarified. Crises in climate, food, biodiversity, and energy are already playing out across local and global scales and are set to increase as we approach critical thresholds. Drawing together recent work from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, the Tellus Institute, and the STEPS Centre, this commentary article argues that ambitious Sustainable Development Goals are now required along with major transformation, not only in policies and technologies, but in modes of innovation themselves, to meet them. As examples of dryland agriculture in East Africa and rural energy in Latin America illustrate, such "transformative innovation" needs to give far greater recognition and power to grassroots innovation actors and processes, involving them within an inclusive, multi-scale innovation politics. The three dimensions of direction, diversity, and distribution along with new forms of "sustainability brokering" can help guide the kinds of analysis and decision making now needed to safeguard our planet for current and future generations.

/pdf/transforming-innovation-for-sustainability-2l18m9j2wv.pdf

Transforming Innovation for Sustainability

R A SK IN • B A N U R I • G A L L O P ÍN • G U T M A N • H A M M O N D • K A T E S • SW A R T The planetary phase of history has begun, its ultimate shape profoundly uncertain. Will global development veer toward a world of impoverished people, cultures and nature? Or will there be a Great Transition toward a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and environmental sustainability? Though perhaps improbable, such a shift is still possible.

/pdf/great-transition-the-promise-and-lure-of-the-times-ahead-3kw8g94nzv.pdf

great transition: the promise and lure of the times ahead

Paul D. Raskin argues that the advent of the concept of sustainable development is associated with the emergence of the planetary phase of capitalist development. He illuminates alternative futures that could emanate from today's complex conditions and trends depending on how the contradiction between current patterns of development and basic sustainability is resolved. He argues that policy reforms can bend the curve of development toward a sustainable future if the political will for action could be found for fundamental changes in the values, lifestyles and institutions embraced in conventional development paradigms.

/pdf/bending-the-curve-toward-global-sustainability-3x9gc60uq3.pdf

Bending the Curve: Toward global sustainability

iv 1. THE CHALLENGE 1 1.1. The Human Predicament 1 1.2. The Sustainability Notion 2 1.3. The Policy Context 3 2. THE SCENARIO APPROACH 5 2.1. Objectives 5 2.2. System Perspectives and Scenario Criteria 5 2.3. Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective 7 2.4. Methodological Elements 7 3. SCENARIO OVERVIEW 11 4. CRITICAL TRENDS 17 4.1. Population Growth 17 4.2. Economic Growth 18 4.3. Technological Change 18 4.4. Decentralization of Authority 19 4.5. Equity Trends 19 4.6. Resource Depletion 20 4.7. Pollution and Global Environmental Change 20 5. CONVENTIONAL WORLDS 21 5.1. The Paradigm 21 5.2. Variations 21 5.3. Reference Variant: The Problem 22 5.4. Policy Reform Variant: The Answer? 25 6. BARBARIZATION 29 6.1. The Scenarios Unfold 29 6.2. Breakdown 33 6.3. Fortress World 33 Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice ii 7. GREAT TRANSITIONS 35 7.1. Narrowing the Focus 35 7.2. New Social Actors, New World View 36 7.3. A New Sustainability Paradigm Unfolds 37 8. THE TASKS AHEAD 41 8.1. Research Directions 41 8.2. Reflections at the Branch Point 42

/pdf/branch-points-global-scenarios-and-human-choice-4axhu9wngt.pdf

Paul D. Raskin

Papers

The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis

Transforming Innovation for Sustainability

great transition: the promise and lure of the times ahead

Bending the Curve: Toward global sustainability

Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice