Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

The development of this
review article has evolved from work carried out by an international
team of the International Space Science Institute (ISSI),
Bern, Switzerland, and from work carried out under the auspices
of Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP)
Climate and Weather of the Sun‐Earth System (CAWSES‐1).
The support of ISSI in providing workshop and meeting facilities
is acknowledged, especially support from Y. Calisesi and V. Manno.
SCOSTEP is acknowledged for kindly providing financial assistance
to allow the paper to be published under an open access
policy. L.J.G. was supported by the UK Natural Environment
Research Council (NERC) through their National Centre for Atmospheric
Research (NCAS) Climate program. K.M. was supported
by a Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship within the
6th European Community Framework Programme. J.L. acknowledges
support by the EU/FP7 program Assessing Climate Impacts
on the Quantity and Quality of Water (ACQWA, 212250) and from
the DFG Project Precipitation in the Past Millennium in Europe
(PRIME) within the Priority Program INTERDYNAMIK. L.H.
acknowledges support from the U.S. NASA Living With a Star
program. G.M. acknowledges support from the Office of Science
(BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Cooperative Agreement
DE‐FC02‐97ER62402, and the National Science Foundation. We
also wish to thank Karin Labitzke and Markus Kunze for supplying
an updated Figure 13, Andrew Heaps for technical support, and
Paul Dickinson for editorial support. Part of the research was
carried out under the SPP CAWSES funded by GFG. J.B. was
financially supported by NCCR Climate–Swiss Climate Research.

/pdf/solar-influences-on-climate-48ynhy9kuz.pdf

Solar influences on climate

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03026507/document

Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

[1] For the first time a record of total solar irradiance covering 9300 years is presented, which covers almost the entire Holocene. This reconstruction is based on a recently observationally derived relationship between total solar irradiance and the open solar magnetic field. Here we show that the open solar magnetic field can be obtained from the cosmogenic radionuclide 10Be measured in ice cores. Thus, 10Be allows to reconstruct total solar irradiance much further back than the existing record of the sunspot number which is usually used to reconstruct total solar irradiance. The resulting increase in solar-cycle averaged TSI from the Maunder Minimum to the present amounts to (0.9 ± 0.4) Wm−2. In combination with climate models, our reconstruction offers the possibility to test the claimed links between climate and TSI forcing.

/pdf/total-solar-irradiance-during-the-holocene-2s7kpti54x.pdf

Total solar irradiance during the Holocene

Variations in the Sun's total energy output (luminosity) are caused by changing dark (sunspot) and bright structures on the solar disk during the 11-year sunspot cycle. The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years. In this Review, we show that detailed analysis of these small output variations has greatly advanced our understanding of solar luminosity change, and this new understanding indicates that brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century. Additional climate forcing by changes in the Sun's output of ultraviolet light, and of magnetized plasmas, cannot be ruled out. The suggested mechanisms are, however, too complex to evaluate meaningfully at present.

/pdf/variations-in-solar-luminosity-and-their-effect-on-the-earth-32av9eeafl.pdf

Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate

Accurate reconstruction of solar irradiance variations is important for assessing human and natural contributions to climate change. Fluctuations in the Sun9s brightness, measured directly by space-borne radiometry over the past two 11-year sunspot cycles, seem too small to drive climate. Recent reconstructions of solar irradiance extending back to the 17th century have assumed that larger, multidecadal irradiance variations occur, similar to those detected on other Sun-like stars. In their Perspective,
 Foukal
 et al .
 discuss the recent retraction of this stellar evidence and of the solar irradiance reconstructions based on it, which has important implications for the relative roles of various forcing factors in climate change.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/306/5693/68.full.pdf

A Stellar View on Solar Variations and Climate

Recent studies indicate that variation in the sun's luminosity is less than that observed in many other stars of similar magnetic activity. Current findings also indicate that in more active stars, the attenuation by faculae of sunspot luminosity modulation is less effective than in the sun at present. The sun could thus become photometrically more variable (and dimmer) if its magnetic activity exceeded present levels. But the levels of solar activity required for this to occur are not observed in carbon-14 and beryllium-10 records over the past several millennia, which indicates that such an increase in amplitude of surface magnetism-driven variations in solar luminosity is unlikely in the present epoch.

Stellar luminosity variations and global warming.

The area ratios of sunspots to white light faculae in the first two years of sunspot cycles 12-21 correlate remarkably well with the peak amplitudes of those cycles between 1878-1980 (Brown and Evans, 1980). This finding could not be used to predict subsequent cycle amplitudes because the Royal Greenwich Observatory program of facular area measurements was discontinued in 1976. We use continuum images from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and the Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager (HMI) to show that the close relation holds also for cycle 24, and we predict an amplitude of approximately 185 for the current cycle 25.

Peter Foukal

Papers

Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate

A Stellar View on Solar Variations and Climate

Stellar luminosity variations and global warming.

A Remarkably Accurate Predictor of Sunspot Cycle Amplitude