https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Part 1 Unemployment in the model of balanced growth: the labour market long-run equilibrium and balanced growth adjustment dynamics. Part 2 further ananlysis of the labour market: search intensity and job advertising.

Equilibrium Unemployment Theory

Finance, entrepreneurship and growth

Development of the banking sector exerts a large, causal impact on total factor productivity growth, which in turn causes GDP to grow. Whether banking development has a long-run effect on capital growth or private saving remains to be seen. Beck, Levine, and Loayza evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources- total factor productivity growth, physical capital accumulation, and private saving. They use (1) a pure cross-country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and (2) a new panel technique that controls for country-specific effects and endogeneity. They find that: - Banks do exert a large, causal impact on total factor productivity growth, which feeds through to overall GDP growth. - The long-run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the links between the financial system and economic growth.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID569227_code382649.pdf?abstractid=569227&rulid=5428171&mirid=4

Finance and the Sources of Growth

Schumpeterian growth theory has "operationalized" Schumpeter''s notion of creative destruction by developing models based on this concept. These models shed light on several aspects of the growth process which could not be properly addressed by alternative theories. In this survey, we focus on four important aspects, namely: (i) the role of competition and market structure; (ii) firm dynamics; (iii) the relationship between growth and development with the notion of appropriate growth institutions; (iv) the emergence and impact of long-term technological waves. In each case Schumpeterian growth theory delivers predictions that distinguish it from other growth models and which can be tested using micro data.

What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory

This paper presents a Schumpeterian endogenous growth model in which a steady state exists with a constant growth rate even though population and the inputs to R & D are growing. The scale effect of rising population is nullified by product proliferation that fragments the growing demand for intermediate products, thus preventing the reward to any specific innovation from rising with population. All the usual comparative statics results of Schumpeterian growth theory are valid, including the positive effect of R & D subsidies on growth.

Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing

This book honors the work of Axel Leijonhufvud. The topics range from Keynesian economics and the economics of high inflation to the micro-foundations of macroeconomics and economic history. The authors comprise some of the very best economists active today.

/pdf/macroeconomics-with-intelligent-autonomous-agents-49rrxdtg46.pdf

Macroeconomics with Intelligent Autonomous Agents

One of the central messages of Keynes's General Theory [3] was that wage flexibility cannot be counted on to cure unemployment. One part of Keynes's argument was that wages were not in fact very flexible. But he did not rest his case on the assumption of sticky wages. In Chapter 19 he argued that if wages were more flexible, matters would be even worse. Greater wage-flexibility would be detrimental to social justice, would lead to greater labour unrest, and would destabilize the value of money. More to the point it would probably also make unemployment even worse because wage reductions would cause the level of aggregate demand to fall. Keynes pointed to several channels through which a wage-reduction might reduce aggregate demand. The one he seemed to rely on most was an expectation effect:

Wage flexibility and employment

The purpose of this paper is to argue that the pursuit of an activist monetary policy may make economic sense even when people's expectations are formed rationally. The paper presents a simple model in which (1) prices are costly to adjust, (2) there is uncertainty concerning the parameters affecting aggregate demand, and (3) there are positive costs of gathering and processing information. By reference to this model it can be shown that an activist monetary policy may or may not be useful in offsetting aggregate disturbances, depending upon the extent of information costs and of parameter uncertainty.

/pdf/activist-monetary-policy-under-rational-expectations-tv6lrktyln.pdf

Peter Howitt

Papers

What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory

Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing

Macroeconomics with Intelligent Autonomous Agents

Wage flexibility and employment

Activist Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations