https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Part 1 Unemployment in the model of balanced growth: the labour market long-run equilibrium and balanced growth adjustment dynamics. Part 2 further ananlysis of the labour market: search intensity and job advertising.

Equilibrium Unemployment Theory

Finance, entrepreneurship and growth

Development of the banking sector exerts a large, causal impact on total factor productivity growth, which in turn causes GDP to grow. Whether banking development has a long-run effect on capital growth or private saving remains to be seen. Beck, Levine, and Loayza evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources- total factor productivity growth, physical capital accumulation, and private saving. They use (1) a pure cross-country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and (2) a new panel technique that controls for country-specific effects and endogeneity. They find that: - Banks do exert a large, causal impact on total factor productivity growth, which feeds through to overall GDP growth. - The long-run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the links between the financial system and economic growth.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID569227_code382649.pdf?abstractid=569227&rulid=5428171&mirid=4

Finance and the Sources of Growth

Cet article examine les effets macroeconomiques resultant de l’introduction de ce que Bresnahan et Trajtenberg appellent une « technologie multi-usages » (TMU) comme, par exemple, la technologie informatique. L’analyse est basee sur le principe qu’une nouvelle TMU accelere le rythme de changement technologique en creant une vague d’innovations secondaires destinees a ameliorer et a atteindre le potentiel de la TMU d’origine. Cet article etudie les voies a travers lesquelles une hausse du rythme de changement technologique pourrait reduire le niveau d’activite economique mesure avant de conduire l’economie a un niveau de croissance superieur. Deux voies sont l’obsolescence du capital et l’absence de mesure de l’investissement de la connaissance dans les comptes nationaux. Un modele de croissance endogene simple qui a ete construit et adapte a l’economie americaine prevoit que l’obsolescence du capital est la plus significative des deux voies, et que, dans ce cas, la production sera pendant pres de trois decennies inferieure a ce qu’elle aurait ete sans l’introduction de la nouvelle TMU.

/pdf/ajustement-macroeconomique-aux-technologies-multi-usages-2jk065b42r.pdf

Ajustement macroéconomique aux technologies multi-usages

It is well known that false trading may cause spillover effects and cash- constraint effects that cannot be characterized adequately by traditional consumer theory. Several authors have shown how these effects can be deduced from a suitably modified version of consumer theory under fairly special assumptions.1 This paper is an attempt to determine under what general assumptions the qualitative nature of these effects can be predicted unambiguously from such a theory.

Peter Howitt

Papers

Ajustement macroéconomique aux technologies multi-usages

The Qualitative Effects of False Trading

Stable Low-Level Equilibrium

Search, Recruiting, and the Indeterminacy of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

The Economic Future in Historical Perspective (review)