THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

The key idea behind active learning is that a machine learning algorithm can achieve greater accuracy with fewer training labels if it is allowed to choose the data from which it learns. An active learner may pose queries, usually in the form of unlabeled data instances to be labeled by an oracle (e.g., a human annotator). Active learning is well-motivated in many modern machine learning problems, where unlabeled data may be abundant or easily obtained, but labels are difficult, time-consuming, or expensive to obtain. This report provides a general introduction to active learning and a survey of the literature. This includes a discussion of the scenarios in which queries can be formulated, and an overview of the query strategy frameworks proposed in the literature to date. An analysis of the empirical and theoretical evidence for successful active learning, a summary of problem setting variants and practical issues, and a discussion of related topics in machine learning research are also presented.

Active Learning Literature Survey

For centuries, scientists have attempted to identify and document analytical laws that underlie physical phenomena in nature. Despite the prevalence of computing power, the process of finding natural laws and their corresponding equations has resisted automation. A key challenge to finding analytic relations automatically is defining algorithmically what makes a correlation in observed data important and insightful. We propose a principle for the identification of nontriviality. We demonstrated this approach by automatically searching motion-tracking data captured from various physical systems, ranging from simple harmonic oscillators to chaotic double-pendula. Without any prior knowledge about physics, kinematics, or geometry, the algorithm discovered Hamiltonians, Lagrangians, and other laws of geometric and momentum conservation. The discovery rate accelerated as laws found for simpler systems were used to bootstrap explanations for more complex systems, gradually uncovering the "alphabet" used to describe those systems.

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Distilling Free-Form Natural Laws from Experimental Data

Supporting Online Material for Distilling Free-Form Natural Laws from Experimental Data

The question of whether it is possible to automate the scientific process is of both great theoretical interest and increasing practical importance because, in many scientific areas, data are being generated much faster than they can be effectively analysed. We describe a physically implemented robotic system that applies techniques from artificial intelligence to carry out cycles of scientific experimentation. The system automatically originates hypotheses to explain observations, devises experiments to test these hypotheses, physically runs the experiments using a laboratory robot, interprets the results to falsify hypotheses inconsistent with the data, and then repeats the cycle. Here we apply the system to the determination of gene function using deletion mutants of yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and auxotrophic growth experiments. We built and tested a detailed logical model (involving genes, proteins and metabolites) of the aromatic amino acid synthesis pathway. In biological experiments that automatically reconstruct parts of this model, we show that an intelligent experiment selection strategy is competitive with human performance and significantly outperforms, with a cost decrease of 3-fold and 100-fold (respectively), both cheapest and random-experiment selection.

Functional genomic hypothesis generation and experimentation by a robot scientist

The paper is addressed to AI workers with an interest in biomolecular genetics and also to biomolecular geneticists interested in what AI tools may do for them. The authors are engaged in a collaborative enterprise aimed at partially automating some aspects of scientific work. These aspects include the processes of forming hypotheses, devising trials to discriminate between these competing hypotheses, physically performing these trials and then using the results of these trials to converge upon an accurate hypothesis. As a potential component of the reasoning carried out by an "artificial scientist" this paper describes ASE-Progol, an Active Learning system which uses Inductive Logic Programming to construct hypothesised first-order theories and uses a CART-like algorithm to select trials for eliminating ILP derived hypotheses. In simulated yeast growth tests ASE-Progol was used to rediscover how genes participate in the aromatic amino acid pathway of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The cost of the chemicals consumed in converging upon a hypothesis with an accuracy of around 88% was reduced by five orders of magnitude when trials were selected by ASE-Progol rather than being sampled at random. While the naive strategy of always choosing the cheapest trial from the set of candidate trials led to lower cumulative costs than ASE-Progol, both the naive strategy and the random strategy took significantly longer to converge upon a final hypothesis than ASE-Progol. For example to reach an accuracy of 80%, ASE-Progol required 4 days while random sampling required 6 days and the naive strategy required 10 days.

Combining inductive logic programming, active learning and robotics to discover the function of genes

With the completion of the sequencing of genomes of increasing numbers of organisms, the focus of biology is moving to determining the role of these genes (functional
genomics). To this end it is useful to view the cell as a
biochemical machine: it consumes simple molecules to manufacture more complex ones by chaining together biochemical reactions into long sequences referred to as em metabolic pathways. Such metabolic pathways are not
linear but often interesect to form complex networks. Genes play a fundamental role in these networks by providing the information to synthesise the enzymes that catalyse biochemical reactions. Although developing a complete model of metabolism is of fundamental importance to biology and medicine, the size and complexity of the network has proven beyond the capacity of human reasoning. This paper presents the first results of the Robot Scientist research programme that aims to automatically discover the function of genes in the metabolism of the yeast em Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Results include: (1) the first logical model of metabolism;(2) a method to predict phenotype by deductive inference; and (3) a method to infer reactions and gene function by aductive inference. We describe the em in vivo experimental set-up which will allow these em in silico predictions to be automatically tested by a laboratory robot.

Philip G. K. Reiser

Papers

Functional genomic hypothesis generation and experimentation by a robot scientist

Combining inductive logic programming, active learning and robotics to discover the function of genes

Developing a logical model of yeast metabolism

Combining active inductive programming, active learning and robotics to discover the function of genes