世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

A doubling in global food demand projected for the next 50 years poses huge challenges for the sustainability both of food production and of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the services they provide to society. Agriculturalists are the principal managers of global useable lands and will shape, perhaps irreversibly, the surface of the Earth in the coming decades. New incentives and policies for ensuring the sustainability of agriculture and ecosystem services will be crucial if we are to meet the demands of improving yields without compromising environmental integrity or public health.

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Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices

Decades ago, discussion of an impending global pandemic of obesity was thought of as heresy. But in the 1970s, diets began to shift towards increased reliance upon processed foods, increased away-from-home food intake, and increased use of edible oils and sugar-sweetened beverages. Reductions in physical activity and increases in sedentary behavior began to be seen as well. The negative effects of these changes began to be recognized in the early 1990s, primarily in low- and middle-income populations, but they did not become clearly acknowledged until diabetes, hypertension, and obesity began to dominate the globe. Now, rapid increases in the rates of obesity and overweight are widely documented, from urban and rural areas in the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to populations in countries with higher income levels. Concurrent rapid shifts in diet and activity are well documented as well. An array of large-scale programmatic and policy measures are being explored in a few countries; however, few countries are engaged in serious efforts to prevent the serious dietary challenges being faced.

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Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries

Sustainable Development Goals

Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/319/5863/607.full.pdf

Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030

IFPRI has long argued that spending on agricultural research constitutes a sound investment in poverty reduction and agricultural and economic growth, through improvements in productivity. This argument is based partly on the reported evidence of high rates of return to agricultural research, typically believed to be in the range of 40–60 percent per year. Yet there continues to be controversy over whether these figures are to be believed, and over what they actually indicate. This study represents the first attempt to take a comprehensive look at all the available evidence on rates of return to investments in agricultural R&D since 1953, and the only attempt to do so in a formal statistical fashion. This report has compiled and documented the literature in ways that make it more accessible and more useful to other researchers and policymakers, as well as others interested in the evidence. The analysis reveals some systematic patterns and some sources of biases that make it easier to interpret the evidence and draw meaningful conclusions. (Excerpted from Summary by Per Pinstrup-Andersen)

http://impact.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/8.pdf

A meta-analysis of rates of return to agricultural R&D : ex pede Herculem?

In a recent update of earlier estimates ( 1 ), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations reported that more than one billion people now suffer malnutrition ( 2 ). Despite declines in food prices from their 2008 highs, local prices in many developing countries are still high by recent historical standards. Long-run trends in global food commodity prices are driven by differential rates of growth in the supply and demand for food crops, feed, and livestock products.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/325/5945/1209.full.pdf

Agricultural Research, Productivity, and Food Prices in the Long Run

A total of 289 studies of returns to agricultural R&D were compiled and these provide 1821 estimates of rates of return. After removing statistical outliers and incomplete observations, across the remaining 1128 observations the estimated annual rates of return averaged 65 per cent overall — 80 per cent for research only, 80 per cent for extension only, and 47 per cent for research and extension combined. These averages reveal little meaningful information from a large body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. This study was aimed at trying to account for the differences. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.

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Research returns redux: a meta‐analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

This report assembles and assesses new evidence regarding investments in agricultural R&D, tracking global trends over the past several decades, and highlighting the critical importance that the accumulated stock of scientific knowledge has for today's productivity and for future innovations and economic growth.

https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACN063.pdf

Philip G. Pardey

Papers

A meta-analysis of rates of return to agricultural R&D : ex pede Herculem?

Agricultural Research, Productivity, and Food Prices in the Long Run

Research returns redux: a meta‐analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

Slow magic: agricultural R&D a century after Mendel.

Research, productivity, and output growth in Chinese agriculture