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Convex Analysisの二,三の進展について

Hyperbolic discount functions induce dynamically inconsistent preferences, implying a motive for consumers to constrain their own future choices. This paper analyzes the decisions of a hyperbolic consumer who has access to an imperfect commitment technology: an illiquid asset whose sale must be initiated one period before the sale proceeds are received. The model predicts that consumption tracks income, and the model explains why consumers have asset-specific marginal propensities to consume. The model suggests that financial innovation may have caused the ongoing decline in U. S. savings rates, since financial innovation in- creases liquidity, eliminating commitment opportunities. Finally, the model implies that financial market innovation may reduce welfare by providing âtoo muchâ liquidity.

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Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting

This paper discusses the discounted utility (DU) model: its historical development, underlying assumptions, and "anomalies" - the empirical regularities that are inconsistent with its theoretical predictions. We then summarize the alternate theoretical formulations that have been advanced to address these anomalies. We also review three decades of empirical research on intertemporal choice, and discuss reasons for the spectacular variation in implicit discount rates across studies. Throughout the paper, we stress the importance of distinguishing time preference, per se, from many other considerations that also influence intertemporal choices.

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Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for the period 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and present key features of the data at the country and the global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios, distinguishing between foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, official reserves, and external debt. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories that account for this discrepancy.

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The External Wealth of Nations Mark Ii: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004

This paper undertakes an assessment of a rapidly growing body of economic research on financial literacy. We start with an overview of theoretical research which casts financial knowledge as a form of investment in human capital. Endogenizing financial knowledge has important implications for welfare as well as policies intended to enhance levels of financial knowledge in the larger population. Next, we draw on recent surveys to establish how much (or how little) people know and identify the least financially savvy population subgroups. This is followed by an examination of the impact of financial literacy on economic decision-making in the United States and elsewhere. While the literature is still young, conclusions may be drawn about the effects and consequences of financial illiteracy and what works to remedy these gaps. A final section offers thoughts on what remains to be learned if researchers are to better inform theoretical and empirical models as well as public policy.

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The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence

Despite a formal ‘no-bailout clause’, we estimate significant net present value transfers from the European Union to Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to 43% (Greece) of 2011 output during the recent Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and understand bailouts in a monetary union, and the large observed differences across countries. We characterize bailout size and likelihood as a function of the economic fundamentals (economic activity, debt-to-gdp ratio, default costs). Our model embeds a ‘Southern view’ of the crisis (transfers did not help) and a ‘Northern view’ (transfers weaken fiscal discipline). While a stronger no-bailout commitment reduces risk-shifting, it may not be optimal from the perspective of the creditor country, even ex-ante, if it increases the risk of immediate insolvency for high debt countries. Hence, the model provides a potential justification for the often decried policy of ‘kicking the can down the road’.

Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

Tout le monde ne peut pas avoir une monnaie faible au meme moment : si une monnaie s’affaiblit, c’est qu’une autre au moins se rencherit. De cette verite arithmetique est ne le concept de « guerre des monnaies » : une course a la depreciation monetaire qui ne peut que mal finir. La realite est toutefois plus complexe car les principales banques centrales des pays developpes poursuivent des objectifs internes. Ainsi, la Banque centrale europeenne (BCE) a pour mission la stabilite des prix dans la zone euro, tandis que la Reserve federale americaine poursuit un double objectif de stabilite des prix et de plein-emploi. Leurs taux de change fluctuent librement sur le marche, en fonction de l’offre et de la demande. Ce ne sont pas des objectifs de politique economique, mais des canaux de transmission de la politique monetaire. En fait de « guerre des monnaies », on assiste a une confrontation de politiques monetaires dont les objectifs, les strategies et les contraintes varient d’un pays a l’autre. Depuis l’automne 2012, la BCE s’est distinguee de ses consœurs en menant une politique monetaire bien moins expansionniste. Dans un contexte economique marque par la desinflation, la faiblesse de la reprise et la fragmentation du marche du credit, la Note fait differentes propositions en faveur d’un assouplissement monetaire dans la zone euro. Un tel activisme de la BCE devrait s’accompagner d’un affaiblissement temporaire de l’euro. A travers une etude econometrique originale, les auteurs estiment qu’une depreciation de l’euro de 10 % eleverait la valeur des exportations hors zone euro de l’ordre de 7-8 %. Cependant, elle rencherirait les importations manufacturieres d’environ 3,5 %, sans baisse a court terme des volumes importes. Les prix relatifs ayant un impact aussi important que celui du taux de change sur les exportations, les auteurs soulignent l’importance de renforcer la vigilance sur les effets des politiques publiques (prelevements obligatoires, cout de l’energie, etc.) sur les couts et les prix francais. Selon eux, une depreciation temporaire de l’euro, qui accompagnerait une politique monetaire plus expansionniste, aiderait la zone euro a se sortir d’une situation conjoncturelle difficile. Mais il ne faut pas s’attendre a un affaiblissement durable de la monnaie europeenne qui n’est vraisemblablement pas tres eloignee de sa valeur d’equilibre de long terme. Pour limiter les risques lies au cycle mondial du credit, les auteurs proposent de transferer au niveau de la zone euro les principaux outils de regulation macro-prudentielle, meme lorsque ceux-ci supposent une differenciation selon les pays. Ils sont sceptiques sur l’utilite des declarations des responsables politiques sur le niveau du taux de change comme sur la faisabilite d’une veritable coordination internationale des politiques monetaires. Ils suggerent neanmoins de reexaminer, au niveau multilateral, le concept de « manipulation » de change, actuellement peu operationnel.

L'euro dans la "guerre des monnaies": Note du Conseil d'Analyse Économique n°11

[Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy]: Comment

We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coefficients in the 'Fama' regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the US, these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates.

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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Papers

The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

L'euro dans la "guerre des monnaies": Note du Conseil d'Analyse Économique n°11

[Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy]: Comment

Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception

Chapter 10 External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects