Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze the current economic conditions from a historical perspective and draw some implications for external imbalances, safe asset demand and the process of external adjustment, and argue that there is a renewed Triffin dilemma where safe asset providers face a trade-off in terms of external exposure and real appreciation of their currency.

TL;DR: In this paper, the dominant currency paradigm is proposed for small open economies and the authors show strong support for this paradigm and reject the alternatives of the producer currency and local currency pricing.

TL;DR: This article performed a detailed analysis of the historical evolution of US external assets and liabilities at market value since 1952 and found strong evidence of a sizeable excess return of gross assets over gross liabilities, which increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system.

TL;DR: In this paper, a new explanation for the forward-premium and delayed-overshooting puzzles is proposed, which arises from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider the evolution of safe real rates in conjunction with three other first-order macroeconomic stylized facts: the relative constancy of the real return to productive capital, the decline in the labor share, and the decline and subsequent stabilization of the earnings yield.