Showing papers by "Pinhas Alpert published in 2013"

The potential of commercial microwave networks to monitor dense fog‐feasibility study

Abstract: [1] Here we show the potential for dense fog monitoring using existing measurements from wireless communication systems. Communication networks widely deploy commercial microwave links across the terrain at ground level. Operating at frequencies of tens of gigahertz, they are affected by fog and are, practically, an existing, sensor network, spatially distributed worldwide, which can provide crucial information about fog concentration and visibility. The goal of this paper is to show the feasibility for fog identification and intensity estimation. A method is proposed and is demonstrated by two cases of heavy fog that took place in Israel. During these events, fog covered wide areas (tens of kilometers) and caused severe decrease in visibility, dropping as low as several tens of meters. Liquid water content and visibility values were estimated using measurements from tens of microwave links deployed in the observed area for each event. Each of the links provided a single measurement which was taken simultaneously across all of the links in the system. The values were found to be in the range of 0.5–0.8 gr/m3, high concentration values that match the maximum value range observed in field measurements carried out for prior studies in different test areas in the world. The visibility ranges calculated, between 30 and 70 m, fit the visibility assessments from the specialized measuring equipment operating in the observed area at the same time. These results point to the strong potential of the proposed technique.

The Hydrological Cycle of the Mediterranean

Abstract: This chapter discusses results of current and future-projected water cycle components over the Mediterranean region. Results are presented from an ensemble of CMIP3 multi-model simulations (here after referred to as Mariotti) and from the Meteorological Research Institute’s (MRI) 20 km grid global climate model. Referred to as CMIP3 results are surprisingly close to MRI. The projected mean annual change in the rate of precipitation (P) across the region (for sea and land), is projected to decrease by the end of the 21st century by −11% and −10%, respectively, for the MRI and Mariotti runs. Projected changes in evaporation (E) are +9.3% (sea) and −3.6% (land) for JMA runs, compared to +7.2% (sea) and −8.1% (land) in Mariotti’s study. However, no significant difference of the projected change in P–E over the sea body is found between these two studies. E over the eastern Mediterranean was projected to be higher than the western Mediterranean, but the P decrease was projected to be lower. The net moisture budget, P–E, shows that the eastern Mediterranean is projected to become even drier than the western Mediterranean. The river model projects significant decreases in water inflow to the Mediterranean of about −36% by the end of the 21st century in the MRI run (excluding the Nile). The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which reflects the combined effects of precipitation and surface air temperature (Ts) changes, shows a progressive and substantial drying of Mediterranean land surface over this region since 1900 (−0.2 PDSI units/decade), consistent with a decrease in precipitation and an increase in Ts (not shown). The last section of this chapter reports on components of the hydrological cycle from five climate model projections for the Mediterranean region. Three of these models have an interactive Mediterranean Sea (MPI, ENEA, Meteo-France), and two are versions of the Met Office Hadley Centre regional model (HadRM3-MOSES2, HadRM3-MOSES1) with different land surface schemes. The focus of this section is upon changes in evapotranspiration, and how these changes could be important in controlling available renewable water resources (runoff). These r indicate that rainfall is projected to decline across large areas by over −20% in all of the models, although in the Meteo-France model the central part of the northern Mediterranean domain, ie. southern Italy and Greece, has areas of increase as well as decrease. In pockets of Turkey, the eastern Mediterranean, Italy and Spain, projections from the MPI, HadRM3-MOSES2, HadRM3-MOSES1 and ENEA models are for decreases in summer rainfall of −50% or more. Consistent with the global model projections, each of the five high-resolution models simulate increasing temperatures and decreasing evapotranspiration and precipitation for much of the Mediterranean region by the middle of this century. The strongest and most widespread reductions in precipitation are projected to occur in the spring and summer seasons, while reductions in evapotranspiration are greatest in summer.

A new methodology for weighting high-resolution model simulations to project future rainfall in the Middle East

Abstract: A divergence metric was used to combine 4 high-resolution climate models to gen- erate more reliable simulations of future rainfall. The approach is based on the assumption that the use of multiple models (an ensemble) is superior to the use of a single model, even if one of the models is shown to better capture past trends. Such an approach is especially useful in areas with steep climatic gradients, where large-scale climate models are not effective in capturing oro- graphic and local effects. We applied the methodology to the Middle East, and specifically to Israel, where climate shifts from arid to humid temperate occur over a distance of around 400 km. Model weights were determined by calculating the similarity between the probability distribu- tions of the models and those of the historical data using the Jenson-Shannon divergence metric. These weights were then applied to future model projections. Annual amounts of rainfall, num- bers of wet days and numbers of 3 d wet spells were analyzed. Compared with observed data, the weighted ensemble outperformed the equal weights ensemble, which outperformed the best model. For the northern and central stations, average annual amounts of rainfall decreased in both near- and far-future periods, with most of the change occurring at the peak and in the left-hand tail and less change in the right-hand tail of the probability distribution. This, combined with the change in the right-hand tail of the distribution in numbers of wet spells in the near future, sug- gests that the decline in overall rainfall will be higher than the corresponding decline in extreme events; or in other words even though there will be less rainfall, the extreme events will remain, and even possibly increase. In the south, a mixed trend of slightly increasing median amounts of rainfall and slightly decreasing extreme events is projected.

Unexpected increasing AOT trends over north-west Bay of Bengal in the early post-monsoon season

Abstract: The main point of our study is that aerosol trends can be created by changes in meteorology without changes in aerosol source strength. Over the 10 year period 2000–2009, in October, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) showed strong increasing aerosol optical thickness (AOT) trends of approximately 14% yr-1 over northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the absence of AOT trends over the east of the Indian subcontinent. This was unexpected because sources of anthropogenic pollution were located over the Indian subcontinent and aerosol transport from the Indian subcontinent to northwest BoB was carried out by prevailing winds. In October, winds over the east of the Indian subcontinent were stronger than winds over northwest BoB, which resulted in wind convergence and accumulation of aerosol particles over northwest BoB. Moreover, there was an increasing trend in wind convergence over northwest BoB. This led to increasing trends in the accumulation of aerosol particles over northwest BoB and, consequently, to strong AOT trends over this area. In contrast to October, November showed no increasing AOT trends over northwest BoB or the nearby Indian subcontinent. The lack of AOT trends over northwest BoB corresponds to a lack of trends in wind convergence in that region.more » Finally, December domestic heating by the growing population resulted in positive AOT trends of similar magnitude over land and sea. Our findings illustrate that in order to explain and predict trends in regional aerosol loading, meteorological trends should be taken into consideration together with changes in aerosol source strength.« less

AOD trends over megacities based on space monitoring using MODIS and MISR

Abstract: Space monitoring of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over megacities can serve as a potential space indicator of global anthropogenic air-pollution changes. Three space aerosol sensors, MODIS-Terra, MODIS-Aqua and MISR, were used in order to study recent decadal trends of AOD over megacities around the world. Space monitoring of AOD trends has the advantage of global coverage and applies the same approach to detecting AOD trends over different sites. In spite of instrumental and time differences among the three sensors investigated, their global pictures of AOD trends over the 189 largest cities in the world are quite similar. The increasing AOD trends over the largest cities in the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, and North China can be clearly seen. By contrast, megacities in Europe, the north-east of US, and South-East Asia show mainly declining AOD trends. In the cases where all three sensors show similar signs of AOD trends, the results can be considered as reliable. This is supported by the observed trends in surface solar radiation, obtained by using network pyranometer measurements in North and South China, India, and Europe. In the cases where the three sensors show differing signs of AOD trends (e.g. South America), additional research is required in order to verify the obtained AOD trends.

Air Pollution over North-West Bay of Bengal in the Early Post-Monsoon Season Based on NASA MERRAero Data

Abstract: The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) has been recently developed at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO). This reanalysis is based on a version of the GEOS-5 model radiatively coupled with GOCART aerosols, and it includes assimilation of bias-corrected Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from the MODIS sensor on both Terra and Aqua satellites. Our main finding is that, in October, in the absence of aerosol sources in north-west Bay of Bengal (BoB), MERRAero showed increasing AOT trends over north-west BoB exceeding those over the east of the Ganges basin. The Ganges basin is characterized by significant population growth accompanied by developing industry, agriculture, and increasing transportation: this has resulted in declining air quality. MERRAero data for the period 2002-2009 was used to study AOT trends over north-west Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the early post-monsoon season. This season is characterized by aerosol transport from the Ganges basin to north-west BoB by prevailing winds; and still significant rainfall of over 150 mmmonth. Different aerosol components showed strong increasing AOT trends over north-west BoB. The following factors contributed to the increasing AOT trend over the area in question in October: an increasing number of days when prevailing winds blew from land to sea, resulting in a drier environment and an increase in air pollution over north-west BoB; wind convergence was observed over north-west BoB causing the accumulation of aerosol particles over that region, when prevailing winds blew from land to sea. MERRAero aerosol reanalysis can be used on a global scale.