Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

According to the report presented by the World Health Organization, a new member of viruses, namely, coronavirus, shortly 2019-nCoV, which arised in Wuhan, China, on January 7, 2020, has been introduced to the literature. The main aim of this paper is investigating and finding the optimal values for better understanding the mathematical model of the transfer of 2019-nCoV from the reservoir to people. This model, named Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People coronavirus (BHRPC) model, is based on bats as essential animal beings. By using a powerful numerical method we obtain simulations of its spreading under suitably chosen parameters. Whereas the obtained results show the effectiveness of the theoretical method considered for the governing system, the results also present much light on the dynamic behavior of the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network coronavirus model.

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New investigation of bats-hosts-reservoir-people coronavirus model and application to 2019-nCoV system

Fractional finite difference methods are useful to solve the fractional differential equations. The aim of this article is to prove the stability and convergence of the fractional Euler method, the fractional Adams method and the high order methods based on the convolution formula by using the generalized discrete Gronwall inequality. Numerical experiments are also presented, which verify the theoretical analysis.

The finite difference methods for fractional ordinary differential equations

A comprehensive study about the spread of COVID-19 cases in Turkey and South Africa has been presented in this paper. An exhaustive statistical analysis was performed using data collected from Turkey and South Africa within the period of 11 March 2020 to 3 May 2020 and 05 March and 3 of May, respectively. It was observed that in the case of Turkey, a negative Spearman correlation for the number of infected class and a positive Spearman correlation for both the number of deaths and recoveries were obtained. This implied that the daily infections could decrease, while the daily deaths and number of recovered people could increase under current conditions. In the case of South Africa, a negative Spearman correlation for both daily deaths and daily infected people were obtained, indicating that these numbers may decrease if the current conditions are maintained. The utilization of a statistical technique predicted the daily number of infected, recovered, and dead people for each country; and three results were obtained for Turkey, namely an upper boundary, a prediction from current situation and lower boundary. The histograms of the daily number of newly infected, recovered and death showed a sign of lognormal and normal distribution, which is presented using the Bell curving method parameters estimation. A new mathematical model COVID-19 comprised of nine classes was suggested; of which a formula of the reproductive number, well-poseness of the solutions and the stability analysis were presented in detail. The suggested model was further extended to the scope of nonlocal operators for each case; whereby a numerical method was used to provide numerical solutions, and simulations were performed for different non-integer numbers. Additionally, sections devoted to control optimal and others dedicated to compare cases between Turkey and South Africa with the aim to comprehend why there are less numbers of deaths and infected people in South Africa than Turkey were presented in detail.

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Mathematical model of COVID-19 spread in Turkey and South Africa: theory, methods, and applications

In this manuscript, we solve a model of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic by using Corrector-predictor scheme. For the considered system exemplifying the model of COVID-19, the solution is established within the frame of the new generalized Caputo type fractional derivative. The existence and uniqueness analysis of the given initial value problem are established by the help of some important fixed point theorems like Schauder’s second and Weissinger’s theorems. Arzela-Ascoli theorem and property of equicontinuity are also used to prove the existence of unique solution. A new analysis with the considered epidemic COVID-19 model is effectuated. Obtained results are described using figures which show the behaviour of the classes of projected model. The results show that the used scheme is highly emphatic and easy to implementation for the system of non-linear equations. The present study can confirm the applicability of the new generalized Caputo type fractional operator to mathematical epidemiology or real-world problems. The stability analysis of the projected scheme is given by the help of some important lemma or results.

Solution of a COVID-19 model via new generalized Caputo-type fractional derivatives

In this research work, we proposed a new fractional numer-ical algorithm to obtain the exact solutions of generalized fractional-order dierential equations in Caputo sense of order 0 < beta< 1. Fornding the exact solutions by the proposed technique we used the solu-tions of integer-order dierential equations. Generalization of the pro-posed scheme to nite systems is also introduced. At the last, we gave some numerical simulations of some specic equations along with thesolution of a computer virus model to illustrate the applications of ourresults.

https://www.ijmex.com/index.php/ijmex/article/download/2052/660

A new technique to solve generalized Caputo type fractional differential equations with the example of computer virus model

Some novel mathematical analysis on a corneal shape model by using Caputo fractional derivative

The citrus epidemic huanglongbing (HLB), allied with an uncultured bacterial pathogen, is blusterous the industry of citrus worldwide. In this research work, we analysed a fractional huanglongbing model to study the transmission dynamics of the disease. We considered Caputo and new generalized form of Caputo type fractional derivatives to solve the proposed HLB model using two different methods. We exemplified the all necessary graphical observations by the call of real numerical data to show the nature of the given model classes. The analysis regarding to existence of the solution are mentioned with the help of theorems. We observed that the given numerical techniques are strong and worked well to show the dynamics of the model against the time variable.

Fractional dynamics of huanglongbing transmission within a citrus tree

Abstract We analyze a time-delay Caputo-type fractional mathematical model containing the infection rate of Beddington–DeAngelis functional response to study the structure of a vector-borne plant epidemic. We prove the unique global solution existence for the given delay mathematical model by using fixed point results. We use the Adams–Bashforth–Moulton P-C algorithm for solving the given dynamical model. We give a number of graphical interpretations of the proposed solution. A number of novel results are demonstrated from the given practical and theoretical observations. By using 3-D plots we observe the variations in the flatness of our plots when the fractional order varies. The role of time delay on the proposed plant disease dynamics and the effects of infection rate in the population of susceptible and infectious classes are investigated. The main motivation of this research study is examining the dynamics of the vector-borne epidemic in the sense of fractional derivatives under memory effects. This study is an example of how the fractional derivatives are useful in plant epidemiology. The application of Caputo derivative with equal dimensionality includes the memory in the model, which is the main novelty of this study. 

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A delayed plant disease model with Caputo fractional derivatives

In this study, our aim is to explore the dynamics of COVID-19 or 2019-nCOV in Argentina considering the parameter values based on the real data of this virus from March 03, 2020 to March 29, 2021 which is a data range of more than one complete year. We propose a Atangana–Baleanu type fractional-order model and simulate it by using predictor–corrector (P-C) method. First we introduce the biological nature of this virus in theoretical way and then formulate a mathematical model to define its dynamics. We use a well-known effective optimization scheme based on the renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) method to perform the model calibration. We have plotted the real cases of COVID-19 and compared our integer-order model with the simulated data along with the calculation of basic reproductive number. Concerning fractional-order simulations, first we prove the existence and uniqueness of solution and then write the solution along with the stability of the given P-C method. A number of graphs at various fractional-order values are simulated to predict the future dynamics of the virus in Argentina which is the main contribution of this paper.

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A case study of 2019-nCOV cases in Argentina with the real data based on daily cases from March 03, 2020 to March 29, 2021 using classical and fractional derivatives.

Pushpendra Kumar

Papers

A new technique to solve generalized Caputo type fractional differential equations with the example of computer virus model

Some novel mathematical analysis on a corneal shape model by using Caputo fractional derivative

Fractional dynamics of huanglongbing transmission within a citrus tree

A delayed plant disease model with Caputo fractional derivatives

A case study of 2019-nCOV cases in Argentina with the real data based on daily cases from March 03, 2020 to March 29, 2021 using classical and fractional derivatives.